Cablegate: Popular Consultations Crucial, with or Without Elections

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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4621
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ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: POPULAR CONSULTATIONS CRUCIAL, WITH OR WITHOUT ELECTIONS

REF: A) KHARTOUM 1130 B) KHARTOUM 1182

1. (SBU) Summary: Leaders of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement
(SPLM) held a conference from October 15-18 in Kurmuk, Blue Nile
State, to brain-storm about the form and function of popular
consultations. The latter are called for by the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA) to "ascertain the views of the people" of Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile on the CPA. Attendees resolved that election
laws must be amended to assure successful elections, and thereby,
effective popular consultations, which are crucial and an "inherent"
right, even without elections. They also agreed that a law
governing popular consultations must be enacted by the National
Legislative Assembly and approved by the Presidency. Delegates
discussed governance in Blue Nile and reconfirmed their confidence
in Governor Malik Agar. Defining popular consultations is likely to
be the next contentious item on Sudan's political schedule. End
Summary.

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EFFECTIVE POPULAR CONSULTATIONS REQUIRE ELECTIONS
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2. (SBU) SPLM leaders held a conference from October 15-18 in
Kurmuk, the southern capital of Blue Nile State. The conference,
attended by Emboff, was a brain-storming session about popular
consultations and included related governance issues. It was
attended by leaders from Blue Nile, Southern Kordofan, Darfur, and
South Sudan, and included civil society leaders and political
delegates from the National Congress Party (NCP), the People's
Congress Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, the Umma Party, and
the Sudanese Communist Party. Attendees resolved that election and
security laws must be amended to assure successful elections, and
thereby, effective popular consultations. Participants endorsed the
Juba Declaration of the All-Political Parties Conference (Ref A),
calling it a model for resolving the current political issues in
Sudan.

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POPULAR CONSULTATIONS AN "INHERENT" RIGHT
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3. (SBU) In case elections do not occur, participants resolved that
popular consultation must still be conducted as a "right inherent to
the people" of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan. Participants agreed
to work to guarantee security and stability in this process. They
also emphasized the importance of guarantees from the
Intergovermental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the broader
international community, that popular consultations will be
conducted and their results implemented.

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NATIONAL LAW GOVERNING POPULAR CONSULTATIONS NEEDED
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4. (SBU) Attendees resolved that a law governing popular
consultations must be enacted by the National Legislative Assembly
and approved by the Presidency. Members of the NCP have made
numerous public statements rejecting a national law on popular
consultations as unnecessary and not in accordance with the CPA (Ref
B). In a meeting on October 21, Sadiq Mansour (SPLM), Deputy Speaker
of the Southern Kordofan State Parliament, told Poloff that the NCP
fears that popular consultations will lead to referenda in Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile. Mansour stated, however, that a national
law on popular consultations was necessary because only the latter
could bind the national government. Mansour said he is hopeful that
the NCP will understand and accept this argument in coming
negotiations.

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NCP ATTENDS, BUT IN LIMITED CAPACITY
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5. (SBU) The highest NCP representative attending the meeting was Al
Rabatani, Chairman of the Kurmuk Locality Council. NCP
representative comments during the discussions were vague and
non-committal. They stated that popular consultations are "a right
provided for in the CPA; they fully support it; and it has to be
exercised." The representatives added, however, that they were
attending on a personal basis and their views, and the resolutions
of the conference, were not binding on the NCP.

6. (SBU) The NCP representatives from the Southern Kordofan
delegation did not participate, turning back soon after arriving in
Kurmuk. Ahmed Haroun (NCP), Governor of Southern Kordofan, and his
Deputy, Abdel Aziz (SPLM), also did not attend the meeting. Haroun
indicated that the issues surrounding popular consultations should

KHARTOUM 00001198 002 OF 002

be negotiated in a small, private forum between the NCP and SPLM.
(Note: According to Sadiq Mansour, the date set for this meeting, at
which the NCP and SPLM will negotiate the terms of the popular
consultations, is November 1, and will consist of four members from
each of the NCP and SPLM. End Note.)

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SPLM REAFFIRMS CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNOR AGAR
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7. (SBU) Malik Agar (SPLM), Governor of Blue Nile State, was
criticized by some conference attendees for favoring his tribe, the
Ingessena, for administrative positions in the state. (Note:
Emboffs hear this complaint often, but have found no evidence
thereof. We note that Agar has directed both state and
international donor-supported development to areas outside his
tribal home. End Note.) Agar accepted the criticism, and suggested
that as he has led the SPLM in Blue Nile since 1997, replacing him
may be overdue. Conference attendees responded that there was no
one to replace Agar, and their criticism was only to ensure that he
listens to everyone. A number of other SPLM executive office
holders were also criticized and rated on their achievements, with
Agar given the highest rating of the group.

8. (SBU) Comment: The CPA mandates popular consultations to
"ascertain the views of the people" of Southern Kordofan and Blue
Nile on the CPA, but is silent on what legally-binding effect these
views might have once ascertained. This is the crux of the issue.
The NCP cannot give Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile unlimited power
to change provisions of the CPA with which they are unhappy, while
Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile cannot simply submit their views on
the CPA to the Presidency and rely on the Presidency's goodwill to
have their issues resolved. For instance, one can imagine that the
people of Southern Kordofan would like to receive a greater
percentage of the revenue accruing from oil produced in their state,
currently set at two percent, but the national government cannot
allow Southern Kordofan legislators to unilaterally choose an
appropriate amount. Ultimately some mechanism must be agreed by
which Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan can negotiate with the
national government on a somewhat equal footing. Currently no such
mechanism exists. Greater federalism may be the solution to Sudan's
conflicts, but will not be willingly embraced by Khartoum. End
Comment.

WHITEHEAD

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