Cablegate: Delhi Diary, November 22-30

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SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, NOVEMBER 22-30

1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from
Embassy New Delhi for November 22-30,2007 that did not
feature in our other reporting, including:

-- India Freezes Arms sales to Burma
-- India votes against the UN's draft resolution on Burma
-- PM Singh to Visit China
-- Indian is First Asian Elected Secretary-General of the
Commonwealth
-- Communist Land Grab in Kerala This Time
-- Delhi: A Losing Battle Against Air Pollution in the Short
Term?
-- India Slips in UNDP's Human Development Index: GOI Finds
Fault With Recommendations

India Freezes Arms Sales to Burma
------

2. (SBU) The Hindustan Times reported on November 26 that
South Block has finally decided to freeze all arms sales and
transfers to Burma in the wake of the junta's brutal
crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in September. According
to the press report, the MEA source said that India "believes
that contact with the junta is in its strategic interests,
but also wants to send out a message that it is not quite
business as usual any longer." Perhaps, the operative word
here is "quite," as the GOI continues to forge ahead with its
plan to invest USD$ 103 million to renovate Burma's Sittwe
Port in an effort to open up India's northeastern states to
ASEAN markets. India's response to the regime's violent
suppression of pro-democracy forces remains slow and
incremental.

India Votes Against the UN's Draft Resolution on Burma
------

3. (SBU) Along with China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan,
among others, India voted against the UNGA Third Committee's
draft resolution on the human rights situation in Burma on
November 20. India's representative told the Committee that
"India has consistently maintained that all initiatives
vis-a-vis Myanmar should be forward-looking,
non-condemnatory, and seek to engage the government in a
non-intrusive and constructive manner." While India's
negative vote is not surpising given its soft stance on the
Burmese junta and its longstanding policy to vote against UN
initiatives aimed at particular countries, it's ironic that
they cast their vote beside China, which the GOI cites in its
regional balance of power argument as its primary compulsion
for continuing to engage the junta.

PM Singh to Visit China
-----

4. (U) The Government of India announced that Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh will visit China on January 12-13.
Media sources report that Singh will focus on expanding
economic ties, discuss congruence on regional and global
issues (read: climate change and U.N. reform), and reiterate
India's comittment to a "fair, reasonable, and mutually
acceptable solution to the boundary question." In addition,
"The Hindu" quoted government sources as stating that Singh
aims to "take the India-China Strategic and Cooperative
Partnership for Peace and Prosperity to the next level."

Indian is First Asian Elected Secretary-General of the
Commonwealth
-----

5. (SBU) Current High Commissioner to the U.K. Kamlesh
Sharma was selected as the new Secretary-General of the
Commonwealth at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting
in Kampala, Uganda on November 23. According to sources,
India lobbied hard to sway Canada, Australia, and New Zealand
after gaining initial support from African member states.
Sharma will assume charge on April 1, 2008, succeeding
Secretary-General Don McKinnon of New Zealand. Addressing

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the Indian media after his selection, Sharma stated that he
will strive to ensure that the Commonwealth is a mainstream

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organization and to achieve a balance between growth and
development so that visible prosperity can be achieved for
all member states. Sharma is the first Asian to be elected
to lead the organization. His first challenge will be
balancing the Commonwealth's expulsion of Pakistan with
India's concentrated efforts to avoid criticizing Musharraf's
recent domestic maneouvers.

Communist Land Grab in Kerala This Time
-------

6. (U) According to media reports, 2000 cadres of the
Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPM) forcibly occupied
laid claim to about 1500 acres of land in the eastern Kerala
highlands on November 26 after physically chasing away about
200 landless tribal families from the area. The incident
occurred in the Chinnakkanal section of Kerala's Munnar
district, which is known for its tea estates and scenic
landscape. In a well planned operation, the CPM workers were
trucked into the area. After forcing the tribals away from
the area, the CPM cadres destroyed the tribals' huts, fenced
off the area, and planted CPM flags. The land in contention
was previously unoccupied reserve forest land belonging to
the government. Tribals had begun encroaching on the land
two weeks earlier in protest that they had not been given
land that had been legally granted to them in 2003.

7. (U) The conflict has been diffused somewhat since the CPM
land grab on November 26. First, the Additional District
Magistrate called an all-party mediation meeting in which the
CPM agreed to move out, the tribals agreed not to move back,
and the government pledged to immediately take action on the
tribals' demands. Whether the agreement endures, remains to
be seen. According to media reports, tribal leaders believe
the "the aim of the Marxist is to confuse the Government by
saying Adivasis (i.e., tribals) who put huts here are not
entitled to land." CPM leaders alleged the tribal families
are being used by "foreign funded NGOs" to grab government
property. The Communist Party of India (CPI), which is a CPM
coalition partner in Kerala's LDF government, took vigorous
exception to the actions of the CPM workers. The state
Congress Party alleged that the CPM was working at the behest
of the "land mafia."

8. (SBU) The CPM action in Munnar comes shortly after the
Nandigram imbroglio in West Bengal, where armed CPM cadre
went on a rampage to evict thousands of land-owners
(reftels). While comparisons are inevitable, there are
important differences between Munnar and Nandigram. Although
there is tension in Munnar, there is no comparable violence
or confrontation. Both the tribals and the CPM are guilty of
encroaching on public land in Munnar whereas the CPM drove
out long-established villagers from their homes and land in
Nandigram. A resolution appears to be at hand in Munnar,
while Nandigram is a long-drawn out confrontation with no
resolution in sight. And, unlike in West Bengal, where
thirty years of uninterrupted rule has given the CPM a lock
on power, the presence of a strong opposition Congress Party
serves as a check on the Kerala's CPM, making Nandigram-style
excesses unlikely. That said, the similarities of tactics
employed by the CPM in Munnar and Nandigram -- heavy-handed
physical intimidation, forcible grabbing of land, identifying
weak and defenseless victims to bully -- demonstrate the
ruthless authoritarian approach the CPM uses to get its way.
Even more worrisome for democratic institutions and rule of
law in India is an allegation leveled by a Kerala Congress
leader: the CPM goal in Munnar is to change the demographic
and electoral profile in the district by relocating CPM
families into the area (and presumably chasing out non-CPM
households.)

Delhi: A Losing Battle Against Air Pollution in the Short
Term?
-------

9. (U) Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit would like to make
a significant dent in the capital's air pollution by 2010,
when the city hosts the next round of the Commonwealth Games.
When respiratory illnesses plaguing Delhites reached their

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peak in 1998, Delhi was considered one of the top ten most
polluted cities in the world. In response to a public outcry
and given the lack of political will by the state government
to change the situation, the Indian Supreme Court stepped in
to order the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for public
transport. Delhi residents and frequent visitors attest to
the dramatic change in air quality that resulted from the
mandate. Delhi's CNG-powered public transportation system
has generated considerable international chatter and
admiration. However, the sharp rise in the number of cars on
the road has offset these impressive gains.

10. (U) Dixit's call for a still more radical reduction in
air pollution came last week when she inaugurated the
international conference "CNG -- Averting Disaster." She
outlined the Delhi government's environmental policy,
underscoring her government's commitment to making the city
"pollution-free" within the next three years. She noted the
purchase of a new fleet of CNG-powered buses as well as
efforts to convert 40,000 smaller commercial vehicles from
diesel to CNG.

11. (U) Comment: Dixit and Delhi may, however, be fighting a
loosing battle. As Indian economic growth has accelerated to
record levels during the last five years, there has been an
explosion in the number of commercial and private vehicles in
Delhi. The sharpest increase has been in the number of
diesel-powered vehicles which tend to have higher emissions.
An Indian automobile industry group estimates that the number
of diesel-run cars in India is expected to increase 50
percent in the next three years. The sheer pace of traffic
congestion and the resultant emissions in Delhi is likely to
be a stumbling block to Dixit's administration to implement
clean air policies. Additn to the sharp rise in car
ownership will be the One Lakh Car proposed by Tata Motors,
India's largest auto manufacturer. Tata is expected to
release the world's cheapest car valued at USD 2500 in 2009.
The proposed "people's car" will make it more affordable for
tens of millions of Indian households who until now could
only dream of owning an automobile. While there are many
economic and societal benefits from such a development, the
price of such a mass produced car could be the pressure it
places on air pollution. Dixit remains undeterred, intending
to extend pollution control measures to all the states in the
national Capital region and calling on the people to "speak
up against diesel-run cars." End Comment.

India Slips in UNDP's Human Development Index:
GOI Finds Fault With Recommendations
----------

12. (SBU) On November 27, the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) released its annual Human Development Report
showing that India's ranking in the UNDP's Human Development
Index (HDI) dropped two places from 126 to 128 between 2006
and 2007. The HDI is a UNDP-developed measure of life
expectancy, literacy, education, standard of living and
well-being of residents of countries world-wide. Despite an
improvement in India's gross HDI value due primarily to solid
gains in GDP and gross school enrollment, India's ranking
fell because of better performance of other countries. The
report acknowledges the high rates of economic growth
achieved by India in recent years but warns that the benefits
have been unequally shared among the rich and poor in India,
with 28 percent of its population (320 million) still living
below the poverty line.

13. (SBU) The 2007 UNDP report strongly suggests that
climate change could reverse steady linear progress in
health, education, and poverty reduction. The report states
South Asia and the Gangetic plain will suffer the most from
climate change due to flooding and temperature variations,
which will affect agriculture. According to the report, a
temperature rise of between three and four degrees Celsius
would displace 340 million people through floods and
draughts. Linking climate disaster with grave setbacks in
social indicators, like nutritional status and education,
particularly among women and girls, the report recommends all
countries reduce carbon emissions. Specifically, the UNDP

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report recommends developed nations reduce carbon emissions
at least 30 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050. It also
recommends developing countries reduce their carbon emissions
at least 20 percent by 2050.

14. (SBU) Planning Commission Chairman Montek Singh
Ahluwalia trashed the report and its recommendations,
claiming the recommendations are not fair, even if they
appear egalitarian. Ahluwalia argued that a reduction
strategy should be based on per capita emissions rather than
total emissions which place a disproportionate burden on
countries such as India, which have a much smaller carbon
footprint. He asserted that developing countries should be
allowed to increase their emissions while wealthier countries
should reduce theirs.

15. (SBU) Comment: India's fall in the UNDP rankings came as
a rude shock to many Indians who in recent years have gotten
used to a continuous diet of positive stories about India's
economic resurgence and finding its rightful place on the
international stage. The UNDP report serves to remind
Indians that despite its economic take-off, India has a long
way to go before it can join the ranks of the developed
countries. In terms of the report's recommendations on
carbon emissions, India sees the UNDP prescriptions shackling
its upward economic mobility and its push for the sustained
8-10 percent economic growth it needs in order to expand
economic benefits of growth to the rural population. End
Comment.
MULFORD

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