Cablegate: Kenya Elections: Likely Timeline

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UNCLAS NAIROBI 003790

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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - FORMATTING CHANGES

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LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: LIKELY TIMELINE

REF: NAIROBI 3761 AND PREVIOUS

1. (SBU) Summary: Our best information at this point
indicates dissolution of parliament in early October and an
election date of Monday, 17 December. End Summary.

2. (U) Reftel provides information on violence-prone
constituencies and references for previous election-related
messages.
3. (SBU) Our best information at this time indicates the
following schedule of events:

29 September: Formal Campaign Launch of ODM Presidential
Candidate Raila Odinga

30 September: Formal Campaign Launch of PANU Presidential
Candidate Mwai Kibaki

These two events should include unveiling of selection
timelines and methodologies for determining parliamentary
candidates for the two parties. ODM-K (Kalonzo Musyoka) has
already begun its candidate selection process. The candidate
selection process will be highly contentious, straining the
internal unity of all three parties.

Early October: Likely Date of Dissolution of Parliament

Mid-October: Official Beginning of Parliamentary and
Presidential Campaigns.
The Speaker of Parliament has two weeks after the President
announces the dissolution of Parliament to declare seats
vacant. We understand he is likely to take the entire
two-week period. Once the Speaker proclaims the seats
vacant, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) determines
and announces the election date and so starts the official
campaign period. The election date must be between 49 and 90
days after parliament dissolves. Parties must provide the
names of their candidates to the ECK no later than 27 days
after the official announcement of the election date.

The ECK has very limited authority until the official
campaign season begins. At that point, the ECK has control
over resources and a dedicated police force, as well as legal
powers to sanction wayward candidates.

Mid-November:

Fixing of Ballot Papers. Any last minute
electoral alliances, as occurred in 2002, must be
accomplished and registered prior to printing of ballots.
The names of all parliamentary candidates and the party
symbols must be determined at least one month prior to the
election date to allow for printing and distribution of
ballots.

17 December: Likely Election Date

Our information indicates that the election date will occur after 12
December, Kenya's National Day, and before the Christmas holidays. Past

practice is for elections to occur on Mondays, hence our conjecture tha
the date will be Monday, 17 December.

RANNEBERGER

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