Cablegate: Media Reaction; Iraq; Turkey; Upcoming Argentine

VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1438 2061521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 251521Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8739
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001438

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; IRAQ; TURKEY; UPCOMING ARGENTINE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS; 07/25/07

1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Key international stories include a US military report advising
troop withdrawal from Iraq begin in the summer of 2009; implications
of Turkish parliamentary elections; and speculation about the
outcome of upcoming Argentine presidential elections.

2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS

- "The US is reported to withdraw its troops from Iraq by mid-2009"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (07/26) "While the White
House, Democrats and Republicans are holding a tough political
debate on the future of Iraq, the US military and diplomatic command
in Baghdad concluded that troops should stay there for the next two
years.

"According to The New York Times, the conclusion is part of the
Campaign Joint Plan drafted by General David Petraeus and Ambassador
Ryan Crocker, which is intended to fight insurgents and train Iraqi
security forces until the summer of 2009, when a gradual withdrawal
could be ordered.

"While the proposal was received with caution and pessimism by the
Democratic opposition, it advanced the White House line that
withdrawal be postponed to give time to the Iraqi government to
improve the situation.

"Yesterday, US President George W. Bush intended to strengthen
Americans' fading support for the war and win time for Crocker and
Petraeus, although he did this by making another disputed connection
between the mastermind of the September 11 attacks, Osama bin Laden,
Al Qaeda and the combat in Iraq."

- Turkey confirms its direction"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" (07/25) editorializes "Turkey does not
belong to the European Union, although its elections often have an
impact on the continent both because of the possibility that it
could become an EU member and because it is a Muslim country. This
is why last Sunday's parliamentary elections took on special
meaning, in which the government's political party had a landslide
victory.

"... During recent years, the country grew at a steady annual
average rate of 7.4 percent, which lit up some hope for its
difficult entry into the EU. However, this light of hope was clouded
by the fact that the new French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, along
with other European leaders, did not support the idea.

"... The outcome of elections demonstrated that just a few believed
that (PM) Erdogan could have a secret agenda and, even less that he
would want to get rid of Atat|rk's legacy. Turning the country in
favor of Islamic fundamentalism could imply some contradiction
(rather than a retreat) with the current administration and it could
jeopardize civil and political freedoms, particularly those of
women."

- "The future raises more uncertainty than the election process
itself"

Business-financial "El Cronista" carries an opinion piece by
pollster Manuel Mora y Araujo, who opines (07/25) "... Even with a
positive macroeconomic atmosphere and favorable international
trends, and in spite of the extraordinary relief represented by the
remarkable primary fiscal surplus achieved by the country during
recent years, the years ahead will be difficult and socially
conflictive. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will surely be elected
president, although she will not take over in a honeymoon framework,
as her husband enjoyed during the first three years of his term in
office.

"From now to October, the opposition will surely continue saying
that everything is chaos and conditions are on the verge of
collapse. The official party will possibly continue as though
nothing is happening. And probably the current election trends will
remain as they are. However, a new stage will start on December 11,
which will compel both the ruling party and opponents to tune in to
reality - otherwise, the public will probably turn against them."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

WAYNE

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