Cablegate: Nrp Approved; Ranariddh Loses Assembly Seat

VZCZCXRO6395
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHPF #2144/01 3391011
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 051011Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7684
INFO RUEHZS/ASEAN COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PHNOM PENH 002144

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PREL KDEM CB
SUBJECT: NRP Approved; Ranariddh Loses Assembly Seat

1. (U) Summary. The MOI formally recognized the Norodom Ranariddh
Party (NRP) on November 28. With approval for the Prince to form
his own party, FUNCINPEC expelled Ranariddh from the royalist party,
which means the loss of Ranariddh's National Assembly seat and
parliamentary immunity. The Prince has gone to France to finish his
academic obligations and is expected to return after the holidays.
Supporters of the NRP and FUNCINPEC have begun competing for
FUNCINPEC voters, and Ranariddh's ability to organize his fledgling
party prior to the two upcoming elections remains in question.
Initial information suggests that Ranariddh retains more grassroots
support among FUNCINPEC party faithful than anyone guessed, and the
rump FUNCINPEC may be the big loser at the polls in 2007. Unclear
is whether the RGC will try to bring a legal case against Ranariddh
to prevent the Prince from returning to Cambodia and pursuing his
renewed political life. End Summary.

MOI Approves NRP
----------------

2. (SBU) On November 28, the Ministry of Interior recognized the
formation of Prince Norodom Ranariddh's new party, ending
speculation that the government would try to prevent the party from
competing in the communal council elections scheduled for April 1,
2007. In a November 28 response to Prince Norodom Ranariddh, Deputy
Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Sar Kheng said that the MOI
recognizes the Khmer Front Party's (KFP) extraordinary congress
amending its statutes, changing the party's logo to incorporate
Ranariddh's image, changing the name from the KFP to the Norodom
Ranariddh Party (NRP), and electing Prince Norodom Ranariddh as the
NRP's President. Ok Socheat, Prince Ranariddh's advisor, confirmed
the party's new status in a meeting with Pol/Econ Chief on November
29. "From now on, the NRP is legal," he said.

3. (U) Prince Ranariddh, who was ousted as FUNCINPEC President in
an October 18 party congress, has been seeking to form a new party
in time to compete in upcoming elections at the commune council
level on April 1, 2007, and for the National Assembly in 2008.
Prince Sisowath Thomico, who had earlier aligned his party with the
KFP, had encouraged Ranariddh to consider the KFP as an alternative
political vehicle. Given MOI delays in approving his application to
create his own party, Ranariddh participated in a November 16 Khmer
Front Party congress, in which the Khmer Front Party agreed to amend
its charter and voted to change its name to the Norodom Ranariddh
Party (NRP). PM Hun Sen mocked Ranariddh's decision, and
characterized the Prince as someone begging for shelter from others.

4. (SBU) The MOI's recognition came after Ranariddh departed
Cambodia for France. According to Ok Socheat, the Prince left the
country on November 26, and will return to Cambodia following the
Christmas holidays. Socheat said the Prince would resign from his
teaching job in France so that he could have sufficient time to
strengthen the new party. Based on the NEC's schedule, the Communal
Election Committee will accept candidate lists from January 1 to 3,
2007. Socheat told us that an unspecified number of FUNCINPEC
commune councilors are prepared to run under the NRP banner, as they
recognize they will not be re-elected as FUNCINPEC candidates.
Recent press reports also indicate that popular support for
Ranariddh among grassroots supporters of FUNCINPEC is greater than
many imagined, with those interviewed quoted as saying they will
follow the Prince in the coming elections no matter the name of his
party. This seems consistent with recent IRI polling data, which
shows that many FUNCINPEC supporters are first and foremost
supporters of the monarchy.

FUNCINPEC Expels Ranariddh; NA Seat Lost
----------------------------------------

5. (U) Following the MOI's recognition of the NRP, FUNCINPEC
announced on November 29 that Prince Ranariddh is no longer a party
member nor a member of the National Assembly representing Kompong
Cham. Ok Socheat criticized the announcement and called the
dismissal illegal. Socheat called on the National Assembly to
suspend the Prince's removal until a court rules on the Prince's
complaint alleging that FUNCINPEC illegally removed him as party
leader. In addition to losing his NA seat, Ranariddh will lose his
parliamentary immunity. Ok Socheat and other sources have
speculated that the MOI issued the NRP a letter of recognition so
that the Prince would lose his MP status and the RGC could bring
possible corruption charges against him. Another FUNCINPEC MP and
Ranariddh loyalist, Chhim Seak Leng, also reportedly has been
expelled from FUNCINPEC and will lose his seat and immunity status.

SRP: Ranariddh Will Beat FUNCINPEC
-----------------------------------

6. (SBU) During a November 30 meeting with SRP leader Sam Rainsy
and Tioulong Samaura, both opposition figures noted that Ranariddh's
ability to emerge quickly as a new political leader and draw

PHNOM PENH 00002144 002 OF 003

defectors from FUNCINPEC at the local level has been a surprise to
many. Like Ok Socheat, they believe Ranariddh's party will draw
more FUNCINPEC voters than the rump FUNCINPEC led by Keo Puth
Rasmei. Despite Rasmei's linkage by marriage to former King
Sihanouk's family, Rainsy acknowledged that FUNCINPEC voters have an
enduring loyalty to the monarchy, and they associate the King Father
with Ranariddh. Rainsy speculated that the younger generation of
voters will increasingly distance themselves from the monarchy. He
added, however, that Hun Sen remains determined to remove the royal
family from politics.

7. (SBU) Rainsy offered that Hun Sen misjudged how Ranariddh would
react to being removed as FUNCINPEC leader. The PM thought
Ranariddh would retire from politics with his mistress to France; he
did not foresee the Prince fighting back. Rainsy added he is
keeping his options open - a possible alliance with the CPP in a
future government should the right policies be pursued, or an
alignment with Ranariddh in opposition to the CPP if the NRP shows
itself to be a reliable partner.

Fighting for the FUNCINPEC Vote
-------------------------------

8. (SBU) The NRP and FUNCINPEC are already competing for FUNCINPEC
voters and candidates. According to Ok Socheat, most of FUNCINPEC's
26 MPs support Prince Ranariddh, but they are afraid to openly
support the Prince for fear of losing their NA seats. Ranariddh has
reportedly instructed them to stay in the NA as there is no need for
them to declare themselves at this early stage. On the other hand,
FUNCINPEC commune councilors seeking re-election in April must
announce themselves in the next month; therefore, some commune
officials are already planning to defect to the NRP in areas where
they fear FUNCINPEC voters will support an NRP candidate.

You Hockry Removed as NA Vice President
---------------------------------------

9. (SBU) You Hockry, known as a Ranariddh loyalist, was removed as
the second Vice-President of the National Assembly on November 27.
On December 4, You Hockry told Pol/Econ Chief that he did not
support Nhek Bun Chhay's October 16 Congress that ousted Ranariddh
as party leader, and he also refused to sign a loyalty oath to the
FUNCINPEC Secretary General. Hong Sun Huot, who the National
Assembly approved as Hockry's replacement, is a brother-in-law of
Keo Puth Ramsey, the President of FUNCINPEC. Another FUNCINPEC
source predicted that the party would remove Prince Norodom
Chakrapong from the Senate because he supports the NRP. (Note: New
FUNCINPEC President Keo Puth Rasmei's comments about Prince
Chakrapong during a conversation with the Ambassador would seem to
support that prediction. End Note.) However, so far there have
been no actions against Prince Norodom Sirivudh and Princess Norodom
Vacherha, who are also known as Ranariddh's loyalists.

10. (SBU) Hockry said he felt responsible in part for Nhek Bun
Chhay's actions, noting that he had urged Ranariddh to accept Nhek
Bun Chhay to appease the CPP after the FUNCINPEC Secretary General
pledged to remain loyal to the party. Hockry related that he and
other FUNCINPEC senior officials learned of the October 16 Congress
and called on Nhek Bun Chhay to explain himself; Nhek Bun Chhay
denied the allegations although You Hockry and others had collected
documentation as to Keo Puth Rasmei's appointment. Ranariddh knew
about the treachery, said Hockry, but wanted everything to go
forward so Nhek Bun Chhay and his supporters would be exposed.
Hockry agreed with other sources that the CPP and Nhek Bun Chhay
underestimated Ranariddh's reaction as well as the amount of popular
the Prince still retains. Hockry believes the NRP will get
two-thirds or more of FUNCINPEC voters in the upcoming elections and
the majority of commune councilors will defect.

11. (SBU) Hockry said that the CPP always ensures that FUNCINPEC
goes through a troubled patch a year or so before a national
election. He predicted that Hun Sen will work to undermine
Ranariddh for two reasons: first, to prevent the NRP from besting
FUNCINPEC as that would be an embarrassment to the CPP and Hun Sen;
and second, to prevent the NRP from aligning itself with the SRP -
which remains the biggest threat to the CPP.

The NRP Still Faces Electoral Obstacles
---------------------------------------

12. (U) Assembling a national party structure, manning offices,
and setting up billboards are not easy tasks for a newly formed
party to complete prior to April's communal council elections.
Despite such difficulties, Muth Chantha, the NRP's Cabinet Director
and an ex-senior staff member of the National Democracy Institute
(NDI) in Cambodia, said nearly two thousand stickers with the NRP
logos were already printed and ready for distribution.

13. (U) Another key issue that the NRP must resolve is to develop

PHNOM PENH 00002144 003 OF 003

a candidate list for all communes in which the NRP will compete in
the April 2007 election. Chantha said that the main candidates and
reservists are already on board, and that the party plans to run for
all 1,621 communes nationwide. According to the NEC's announcement,
the 2007 election will elect 11,353 councilors. Observers predicted
the two parties will compete heavily over candidates in early
January, when the Communal Election Committees are scheduled to
receive each party's list of candidates.

14. (U) In the area of finances, the NRP will be at a
disadvantage, but Ranariddh loyalists believe that will not be a
factor until the national elections in 2008. For the commune
council elections, much of the electoral activity will be local in
nature and incumbent commune councilors running as NRP candidates
will be expected to share in the financial burden. A greater
problem will arise with the national elections and the expectation
among grassroots supporters of mass rallies complete with free food,
transportation, gifts, etc. Easy access to the media - an
impediment for all the parties apart from the CPP - will be even
more problematic for the NRP, given the cost of airtime.

Comment
-------

15. (SBU) It's still early days in the lead up to the elections,
and everyone with whom we spoke agreed much can and will likely
change between now and election day - the first one coming in less
than four months. It's worth remembering that one year ago, Rainsy
was in exile in France, and soon to be convicted on defamation
charges. Ranariddh was still firmly entrenched as Hun Sen's
coalition partner. Now the roles are nearly reversed, as Ranariddh
is out, and Rainsy - while still in opposition - is playing a more
low-key and clever political game than he did before. Hun Sen's
objective remains the same - to keep the opposition divided and
ineffective. We continue to stress that we support no single party
and the elections are best decided by the Cambodian voters - rather
than through politically-motivated violence, lawsuits, or
manipulation of the electoral process. End Comment.

© Scoop Media