Cablegate: Positive Reactions to Presidential Pag in Kandahar

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FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5034
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 005929

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SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ASEC MARR AF
SUBJECT: POSITIVE REACTIONS TO PRESIDENTIAL PAG IN KANDAHAR

1. SUMMARY: (SBU) According to a sampling of official,
press, and political analyst reactions to President Karzai's
December 11-13 PAG visit to Kandahar, most Afghans viewed his
visit to the South positively. They felt it was about time
he criticized Pakistan publicly and want him and his
Ministers to travel more extensively around the country.
Foreign media question how long the positive effect will
last, given the ongoing instability in the South. The series
of shuras that Karzai held in the South seemed to have the
biggest impact and his criticism of Pakistan had particular
resonance among tribal elders and attendees. END SUMMARY

Official Reaction
-----------------

2. (SBU) MFA Gender and Human Rights Office Director, Zohra
Rasekh, praised Karzai for traveling to Kandahar and for
blaming Pakistan for Afghanistan,s instability. She said
that Afghans were very angry at Pakistan. Taking a stand
like Karzai did helped alleviate some of the pressure that
had been building among Afghan attitudes towards Pakistan.
She and others want the President to travel more around the
country.

Afghan and International Media
------------------------------

3. (SBU) Initial reactions in the Afghan press were
positive, especially in response to the sections of the
speech on Pakistan. Reaction covered by the media (both
state run and private media) has included commentary saying
that not only did people approve of what Karzai said, but
they were also impressed by his recent shows of emotions that
demonstrate how he has been personally affected by what is
going on the country.

4. (SBU) Commentary from Radio Azadi based on on-the-street
interviews with people in Kandahar was also positive. Many
were impressed that Karzai had gone to Kandahar and were
pleased that he spoke with the average person there,
particularly regarding his message on Pakistan and the
symbols of GOA support he brought to Kandahar. Most provided
little detail on what they approved of or saw as positive,
but the act of going to Kandahar and holding public events
and meetings appears to have resonated, although it remains
to be seen how long or how deep that reaction will last.

5. (SBU) On the international media front, it was a mixed
bag. Several journalists commented that the overall optic
may have been positive on the street, although they question
how much impact it will have, given the continued negative
stories coming out about foreign military actions on the
ground -) all of which may serve (according to international
media that accompanied the President) to highlight the
inability of the GOA to provide aid and assistance to the
people in the South.

View from the South
-------------------

6. (SBU) The shuras that Karzai held after the PAG seem to
have had the biggest impact in Kandahar itself. Governor
Assadullah organized a Panjwayi-specific shura the evening of
December 12 with a good representation of all the tribal
elders and leaders. The conversation -- focused on security
in Kandahar -- was reportedly so successful that they
continued the discussion on December 13. There was also a
second shura between Karzai and elders/leaders from the South
more generally (about 1000 people). Karzai was reportedly
very engaged, "realizing he was needed", according to the
Dutch RC-South POLAD. The heavy emphasis on Pakistan (and on
convoy procedures) was indeed aimed at appeasing public
sentiments in Kandahar, as ordinary people in the south are
very quick to blame Pakistan for insecurity.

KABUL 00005929 002 OF 003

7. (SBU) At a political gathering in Kandahar sponsored by
Cheragh (a daily newspaper) on the upcoming cross-border
Jirga, press and political analysts offered thoughts on
Karzai,s trip to Kandahar. Jawad Sarwari, a reporter for
Cheragh Daily, who accompanied the President to Kandahar said
it was the first time Karzai made such important, strong, and
impressive remarks about the Pakistani government and their
purported interference in Afghanistan. The reporter felt
that Karzai showed strong leadership by talking to the public
and students in Kandahar, particularly when Karzai said that
"the Russians, British, Alexander The Great, and Genghis Khan
could not occupy this land, the land of Afghans. How can
Pakistanis think of turning us into their slaves?8 Sarwari
said that Karzai shouldn't have cried during his recent Human
Rights Gathering. Rather, he should have showed more
strength in confronting human rights violations in the
country. A good leader never cries, said Sarwari.

8. (SBU) Some political analysts believe the trip to
Kandahar was more of a "power show", as Karzai was under
tremendous pressure from the international community,
especially the U.S., to speak up and show his ability to
fight terrorism and the insurgency in the region. However,
his speech was a total surprise for most of the Kandaharis,
as most did not think he was willing to say such things
against the Pakistani government. Some thought Karzai had
forgotten about Kandahar and its people. One person said he
wished Karzai would have said such things three years ago,
then Afghanistan would not be facing all these suicide
bombings and terrorist attacks in Kandahar. The province
would be in better condition now, said a Kandahari man to a
journalist. Because Karzai appeared in public and went to
several shops without having his American bodyguards with him
as in the past, people felt he was no longer afraid to be
among his own people. Generally, people felt happy that
Karzai showed he was still committed to the people and used
tough words against Pakistan. They also liked his
encouraging their children to go to school and learn more and
to never give up.

Some Criticism
--------------

9. (SBU) Not everyone was pleased with Karzai,s remarks on
Pakistan, however. Sayed Ishaq al Gailani, MP, echoed the
views of others in urging Karzai and his Vice Presidents to
travel more to bring the government to the people. Gailani
criticized the two deputies for not traveling at all, which
has "really hurt the President,s image outside of Kabul".
Gailani also was not happy that Karzai heaped "all the blame
on Pakistan,s neck" for Afghanistan,s problems. He pointed
to other countries in the region that were interfering in
Afghanistan,s internal affairs and who were promoting their
own agenda, notably Iran. He said that such condemnation of
Pakistan sent a confusing signal to Afghans and to the GOP,
given that FM Kasuri was warmly welcomed in Kabul just days
earlier.

Comment
-------

10. (SBU) The Presidential PAG,s visit to the South
certainly resonated with those who want to see more GOA
presence in the region and among those who blame Pakistan for
Afghanistan,s instability. To sustain the much needed sense
of presidential engagement and outreach engendered by this
visit, we plan to work with the PAG to schedule more such
events in the South, led by not just the President, but by
his Ministers as well, e.g., Wardak on security and Zia on
reconstruction and development. We will, however, continue
to urge the Afghans to temper public remarks critical of
Pakistan and focus on how the two countries can work together
to stem terrorism.

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NORLAND

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