Cablegate: Aceh: Official Campaign Season Begins

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 013305

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

EAP/MTS

Embassy Jakarta Medan Affairs Office # 35, 2006

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PREL KDEM ASEC ID
SUBJECT: Aceh: Official Campaign Season Begins

1. (SBU) Begin Summary: Official campaigning began in Aceh
on November 24, although advertisements for some candidates
have been up for weeks, giving a slight advantage to well-
financed candidates. GAM "Prime Minister Malik Mahmud
returned to Aceh to try to reunify the GAM movement and to
voice support for candidates Humam Hamid and Hasbi Abdullah.
Some GAM officials disparage this support and back rival
candidates Irawandi Yusuf and Muhammad Nazar. During a
campaign appearance in Bireuen, Hamid's motorcade came under
a stone-throwing attack, most likely by Yusuf's supporters.
Despite this, all groups, including the police and political
parties, agree that Americans and other foreigners working
in or observing elections in Bireuen would be perfectly
safe.
End Summary.

Campaigns Begin
---------------
2. (U) Electoral officials have designated November 24 -
December 7 as the official campaign period. Outside of
those dates, candidates are not permitted to display banners
or posters or give public speeches. While the restrictions
on advertising have been largely ignored, restrictions on
public appearances and rallies were strictly enforced:
electoral officials even prohibited non-partisan NGOs from
organizing a series of debates among the candidates. Many
candidates, particularly those running as independents, have
complained that this restriction hurts them
disproportionately because it does not give them sufficient
time to educate voters about their positions. Even during
the campaign period, candidates will only be allowed to hold
public rallies according to schedules set by local election
committees to minimize the likelihood of clashes between
rival groups.

3. (SBU) The cost of banners, flags, and posters is a major
campaign expense and is roughly indicative of how well a
campaign is financed. Preliminary counts indicate that the
three leading pairs of candidates, Humam Hamid/Hasbi
Abdullah, Azwar Abubakar/Nasir Djamil, and Malek Raden/Fuad
Zakaria, have substantially more campaign materials
distributed throughout the province than the other
candidates. By contrast, the team Irwandi Yusuf and
Muhammad Nazar have virtually no campaign materials. They
recently confessed to us that they do not have the funding
needed to cover the province with banners and that they were
going to rely on name recognition, GAM affiliation, and
person-to-person contact to build support.

4. (SBU) To set themselves apart, independent candidates
from GAM make a point of wearing native Acehnese dress and
never wearing the black, flat hat favored by virtually all
other candidates in the province. Observers also point out
that Malek Raden looks so much younger and more handsome in
his photographs than in real life that some critics
mockingly suggest he used a stand in.

5. (SBU) Where does the campaign money come from? Hamid
(United Development Party, PPP) told us that his campaign is
supported primarily by a group of well-known Acehnese whom
he declined to name. Other sources tell us that some of his
most important supporters are affluent ethnic Chinese
businesses in Aceh who are interested in moderate Islam and
a conducive business environment. Abubakar from the
National Mandate Party (PAN) is paired with a candidate from
the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Well before the
election was scheduled, it was widely reported that PKS
announced that it would only pair with a candidate who could
bring significant financial support to the campaign.
Consistent with this, Abubakar has a told us that he is
funding his campaign himself. His detractors say that much
of his wealth was acquired while he was vice governor to the
notoriously corrupt and now imprisoned Abdulleh Puteh. Malik
Raden's campaign is reportedly financed through a
combination of his own resources and Acehnese who favor
strong ties with Jakarta. Rumors abound that Raden is
"Jakarta's candidate" and that senior figures in the capital
are providing financial assistance as well.

JAKARTA 00013305 002 OF 002

The "Prime Minister" returns to Aceh
------------------------------------
6. (SBU) GAM `Prime Minister' Malik Mahmud and `Foreign
Minister' Zaini Abdullah have returned to Aceh for what they
say will be a one-month visit. Although they deny
participating in the political campaign, politics is a big
part of their agenda. So far, they have held meetings with
GAM members and supporters in Langsa, Lhokseumawe, and
Bireuen. At each stop they have tried to unify the
increasingly divided GAM movement and have encouraged their
followers to support Humam Hamid and Hasbi Abdullah
(referred to as H2O) in the upcoming elections. Generating
support within GAM for H2O has not been an easy sell, in
part because neither Hamid nor Hasbi was a formal GAM
member. By contrast, rival candidate Irwandi Yusuf was a
GAM member and, prior to announcing his candidacy for
governor, represented GAM in the Joint Forum and on the
Commission on Security Arrangements (CoSA).

7. (SBU) Several senior GAM commanders, including Zakaria
Saman and Muzakkir Manaf, have told us that they are
supporting H2O and have publicly encouraged GAM members to
do the same. In private, however, Manaf appears
uncomfortable with GAM's endorsement of H2O. Some other GAM
leaders, however, openly favor Irwandi. One GAM commander
in Lhokseumawe, for example, told us that by endorsing H2O
over a real GAM leader and by refusing to return permanently
to Aceh, GAM leaders in Sweden have forfeited their right to
lead the movement. The future of GAM, he said, is "in Aceh,
not Sweden," and that is where Acehnese should look for
leadership.

Leading Gubernatorial Candidate Attacked
----------------------------------------
8. (SBU) At approximately 5:00 pm on Wednesday, November 22
in Bireuen, vehicles carrying Humam Hamid and several of his
supporters were attacked by a stone-throwing mob. Although
no one was seriously hurt, several vehicles were severely
damaged. The attack appears to have been carried out by a
group supporting Irwandi Yusuf's campaign for governor. We
spoke with several of Irwandi's supporters in Bireuen who,
while not admitting to carrying out the assault, did not
deny it either. They said this incident should be a lesson
to Hamid to stay out of Bireuen.

9. (SBU) Earlier this month there was another incident in
Bireuen where several of Hamid's supporters were beaten by a
group of Irwandi's supporters. Although the regent and the
police chief have both pledged to ensure that similar
incidents do not happen again, the police chief confided in
us that there is so much resentment against Hamid among rank
and file GAM members in his district that he was not certain
he could prevent low-level clashes in the future. Americans
and other foreigners, he said, would be perfectly safe.
Pascoe

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