Cablegate: Elections: Debate Sharpens Ecuador's Choice

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: DEBATE SHARPENS ECUADOR'S CHOICE

1. (SBU) Summary: Despite the staid format of a televised
CNN debate on October 5, the exchange sharpened contrasts
among the top four contenders. Alvaro Noboa, regarded as a
fairly poor debater, exceeded expectations by taking the
offensive against Correa, while Leon Roldos and Cynthia
Viteri made little news courting their bases. The debate
probably helped Noboa emerge as the most viable alternative
to a Correa victory in the first round. Front-runner Rafael
Correa also made headlines during and after the presidential
debate denying the FARC is a terrorist group, provoking an
immediate reaction from Bogota. End Summary.

Format, Dynamics
----------------

2. (U) The less than hour-long live debate was televised
with commercial breaks by a local channel and on CNN in
Espanol, with a potential audience of 20 million. The format
was somewhat stilted, with responses limited to one minute
and follow-up questions not apportioned evenly. All four top
candidates responded to the same questions, with the
exception of Viteri, who was cut off on the last question due
to time constraints. Noboa and Roldos chose to linger
afterwards and mingle at the reception, packed with Quito's
elites. Roldos greeted pre-positioned cheering crowds from
the balcony of Quito's elegant Teatro Sucre.

Thrown Fruit--Noboa Takes the Offensive
---------------------------------------

3. (SBU) After a shaky start commenting on Correa supporters
tossing tangerines outside the theater (effectively countered
by Correa), Noboa regained his footing, drawing laughs with a
promise to pelt Correa with bananas in the second round.
More chuckles ensued among the elite audience, under strict
orders of silence, with Noboa's sarcastic reference to Correa
as "Colonel Correa," (a reference to Correa's links to
Chavez). It is less clear if Noboa, a self-financed
billionaire, scored with his demands that the "millionairio"
campaigns of Correa and Roldos reveal their list of donors
and campaign spending. (Noboa is outspending both).

4. (SBU) Noboa did win rare points for ideological clarity,
saying flatly that his government would not seek relations
with Venezuela or Cuba ("I'm no hypocrite") and that he would
sign an FTA with the U.S. and not put the issue to a
referendum. Corrupt officials would be sent to Cuba as
punishment, he joked, emphasizing his antipathy to Castro's
regime. Noboa added another jab at Correa late in the
debate, noting that while "Ecuadorians are hungry, and are
tired of the blah blah blah" of intellectuals like Correa.

Correa Caught Out on FARC
-------------------------

5. (SBU) Correa separated himself from the field on his
plans for radical reform, a constituent assembly, and his
anti-FTA stance. He linked himself publicly to the full
gamut of Latin American leftist leaders, including Chavez,
and was the only candidate to defend instability, or more
specifically the right of the people to overthrow presidents
who have "betrayed" national interests or their campaign
promises. Pressed for having said a Constituent Assembly
would be free to decide whether to ditch the dollar, Correa
came off defensively trying to put the quote into context.
He deflected a direct question about Chavez by noting that
the U.S. is Venezuela's largest trade partner.

6. (U) Later, in a television interview the next day, Correa
confirmed that he does not consider the FARC a terrorist
organization, but rather "guerrilleros." Correa decried
ignorance on the topic and pointed out that the GOE has
always stopped short of calling the FARC terrorists, saying
that would be tantamount to involving themselves in a
neighbor's internal conflict. The Department's
classification of the FARC as a terrorist organization,
Correa claimed, was done to permit U.S. troops to deploy to
any part of the world to combat them. "The moment we
classify the FARC as a terrorist group, we open the doors for
a U.S. invasion and also declare war on the FARC, involving
us in a problem that is not ours." Correa's statements drew
comment from Colombian VP Francisco Santos, who told the
press that Correa's claim did "more harm to Ecuador than to
Colombia."

Roldos and Viteri Appeal to Stability, Women
--------------------------------------------

7. (U) Roldos' repeatedly emphasized his personal probity,
stability and good governance and promoted "positive" change.
At one point Roldos held out to the cameras his "clean
hands," citing his personal example and honesty. Viteri,
meanwhile, explicitly appealed for the women's vote,
promising to "put a woman's face" on governance. She joined
Correa in demanding Colombian compensation for health effects
of fumigations on the border.

Comment
-------

8. (SBU) Correa's aides immediately sought to counter the
blowback from his FARC statement (including by immediate
clarifying text messages to journalists -- a sign of the
campaign's effective Mexican-run "war room" operation) by
pointing out (correctly) that his position went no further
than that of the GOE, which also refuses to classify the FARC
as terrorist. But it made for a day of press attention that
threw them off message. In the debate, Correa appears to
have been hurt by increasingly high expectations of his
supporters. Having outshone his opponents in wit and
erudition in two previous televised debates, Correa seemed
less impressive in this less flexible format. Noboa, in
contrast, probably won a bounce by exceeding low expectations
based on his previous performances.
JEWELL

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