Cablegate: Aceh Peace Process Moving Forward, Heading Toward

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UNCLAS JAKARTA 012779

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From American Consulate Medan # 29, 2006

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM ID
SUBJECT: ACEH PEACE PROCESS MOVING FORWARD, HEADING TOWARD
ELECTIONS WITH GAM PARTICIPATION

REF: (A) Jakarta 10572

(B) Jakarta 08734
(C) Jakarta 04811
(D) 05 Jakarta 14018

Summary
-------

1. The Aceh peace process continues to move forward.
Elections have been scheduled for December 11, and work has
begun on implementing the Law on Governance of Aceh (LOGA).
The Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) is winding down its work
and expects to cease operation on December 15.
Reintegration payments to former combatants have been halted
over the Free Aceh Movement's (GAM) reluctance to provide
names of recipients. However, GAM is actively campaigning
for the December elections and is represented in two
separate gubernatorial tickets. Embassy Jakarta plans to
provide election observers. End Summary.

Moving Forward
--------------

2. Consulate and Embassy officers visited Aceh on October 11-
12 to assess the political situation as the province, which
is recovering from a long civil war and the 2004 tsunami,
prepares for its first local elections in decades.
Following the Indonesian Parliament's passage of the Law on
the Governance of Aceh (LOGA), as provided in the August
2005 Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) ending
hostilities between GAM and the GOI, the peace process has
moved into a new phase (ref A). Elections for Governor and
for Regent (administrative head) in Aceh's 18 districts are
scheduled for December 11, GAM candidates are actively
campaigning for the election, and a Joint Forum (FORBES)
with membership from GOI, GAM, and the Indonesian military
(TNI) has started to discuss implementation of the LOGA.

AMM Completes Its Work
----------------------

3. The Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM), whose mandate was
extended to December 15, will have no role in election, but
the European Union is planning to send up to 80 observers to
Aceh for the election. AMM Principal Deputy Head of
Mission, Malaysian Major General Mohammad Rozzi bin Baharom,
told us that the AMM would not engage in the election
campaign unless it saw evidence of discrimination against
GAM candidates. AMM political advisor Rochelle Cohen noted
the AMM was already winding down its mission in Aceh and
confirmed that its work, which had been focused on the
implementation of the MOU, would formally end on December
15. All disputed prisoner cases had been resolved by August
15, she said, and TNI and police forces were within the MOU-
required numbers. The 14,000 troops and 9,100 police
remaining in Aceh were all "organic" (permanently stationed
there) and the TNI was engaged in rebuilding, reconstruction
and repositioning of its forces around Aceh in accordance
with its new emphasis on external defense.

GAM Election Rivalry Sharpens
-----------------------------

4. Publicly, GAM representatives have said nothing to
challenge or discourage its former adherents from
participating in the upcoming elections. Our discussions
with GAM rank and file during our visit underscored they
will not fully sign on to the political process until they
see concrete results in self-governance. However, GAM's
direct affiliation with two separate gubernatorial-
vicegubernatorial candidacies underscores its decision to
participate seriously in the elections. One ticket is led
by Humam Hamid, a member of the Pancasila Patriot Party.
Hamid is not a former GAM member, but his running mate,
Hasbi Abdullah, is a former political prisoner and the
brother of Zaini Abdullah, a GAM leader still in Sweden.
(The Pancasila Patriot Party is a small national party which
did not win any seats in the national legislature in 2004.)
Hamid claims to have the endorsement of Malik Mahmoud, the
senior GAM leader in Sweden, and told us Mahmoud believed it
was too early for an ex-GAM governor and had therefore opted
to support a "peace coalition" by partnering with an
established party. The other GAM ticket is led by former
Aceh GAM leader Irwandi Yusuf (known overwhelmingly by his
first name, Irwandi), who is running as an independent
candidate and is paired with another independent, Muhammad
Nazar, a former political prisoner who is not associated
with GAM. Irwandi is running as an independent because the
MOU requires that GAM dissolve itself as part of the
transition.

5. Although neither of the two tickets has an explicit GAM
identity, Hamid's apparent endorsement by the expatriate GAM
leadership and Irwandi's transparent identity as a former
GAM leader make clear the extent of GAM involvement in the
election campaign. Already considerable rivalry has emerged
between the two gubernatorial candidates, indicating a
possible split within the GAM over election strategies.
Irwandi must still assemble the required number of
signatures to qualify as an official candidate, but other
steps he has taken in the run-up to the official campaign
season confirm his intentions. In line with election
regulations require that candidates not hold political
office, Irwandi has announced his resignation as the GAM's
representative to the AMM, the Aceh Reintegration Board
(BRA) and the Joint Forum (FORBES).

Reintegration Funds Halted
--------------------------

6. Under the terms of the Helsinki MOU, BRA has
responsibility to support the reintegration of former GAM
combatants into Acehnese society. BRA Economic Bureau chief
Islahuddin told us the BRA works with the Subregency
Development Program (i.e., at the county level) to implement
this reintegration program. He explained the allotment of
funds to villages was based on village size and past level
of impact of the insurgency on that village. However, BRA
had not been able to fully distribute payments to former
rebels nor provide them with needed training. The national
government had allocated a total of $60 million through 2006
and another $70 million in 2007 for integration. Only $12.5
million of that had been released, however, largely because
GAM had not provided the names of intended recipients. As
had been the case with IOM's 2005 emergency payments to
former GAM (ref D), Islahuddin noted, GAM refusal had forced
BRA to halt payments because of the BRA's accountability
requirements. Islahuddin said he could not proceed further
on this basis without explicit authorization from Jakarta.

LOGA Implementation
-------------------

7. Describing the 20-member FORBES -- charged with
implementing the LOGA -- as ineffective, Wiratmadinata,
Deputy Director of Aceh NGO Forum, complained board members
had no time because they were busy campaigning for
candidates in the upcoming elections. He asserted Usman
Hassan, FORBES chairman, had never attended a meeting in
three months. Wiratmadinata believed it would take years to
complete the 90-plus regulations needed to implement the
LOGA. USAID-funded Advisor to the Governor Leroy
Hollenbeck, however, argued the regulations could be
forthcoming reasonably soon from the provincial assembly,
which had formed multiple committees to accelerate work on
the regulations. Hollenbeck also noted USAID had hired a
consultant for FORBES, which should enhance FORBES'
effectiveness.

Comment
-------

8. In addition to the two GAM-affiliated gubernatorial
tickets, several other clearly identifiable GAM campaigns
(all as independents) at the district level, confirm GAM is
moving squarely into the political arena in Aceh. GAM's
participation in the election process bodes well for
political reintegration of former combatants and its
followers and for continued peace in Aceh. AMM's downsizing
and eventual departure soon after the elections (and long
before a second round) is a further sign MOU implementation
is on track. A successful election on December 11, with the
imprimatur of local monitors and international observers,
will anchor that perception. Embassy and Consulate intend
to contribute a team of election observers to help ensure
this result.
PASCOE

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