Cablegate: Unsc: Goe Still Undecided, Worried About Correa

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STATE FOR P: KARA MCDONALD, IO/UNP: BRIAN HARRIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PREL EC GT IO VE UNSC
SUBJECT: UNSC: GOE STILL UNDECIDED, WORRIED ABOUT CORREA

RE...

id: 81871
date: 10/13/2006 20:26
refid: 06QUITO2529
origin: Embassy Quito
classification: CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
destination: 06STATE171921
header:
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O 132026Z OCT 06
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TO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0089
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INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6079
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2091
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA PRIORITY 0807
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT 0149
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1052
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1292
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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

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STATE FOR P: KARA MCDONALD, IO/UNP: BRIAN HARRIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PREL EC GT IO VE UNSC
SUBJECT: UNSC: GOE STILL UNDECIDED, WORRIED ABOUT CORREA

REF: A. STATE 171921

B. QUITO 2262
C. QUITO 2252

Classified By: Ambassador Linda Jewell for reasons 1.4 (B&D)

1. (C) Per instruction in Ref A, the Ambassador discussed
the UNSC race with Foreign Minister Francisco Carrion at
length on October 13. Carrion said Ecuador is still studying
the issue and President Palacio will make the decision
sometime before Monday's vote. MFA sources tell us Carrion
will discuss the UNSC race with his Chilean counterpart
before making a final recommendation to Palacio.

2. (C) Carrion told the Ambassador he was aware of the
arguments in favor of Guatemala and against Venezuela, and
was personally very concerned about how Venezuela's possible
membership in the UNSC could affect its functioning.
However, he admitted privately that domestic political
developments will play a part in the decision.

3. (C) The Ambassador stressed the importance of a fully
functioning UNSC. If Ecuador truly cares about the UN, it
must show it. Carrion said he did not think either country
had the votes to win; the Ambassador countered that Ecuador
should not kid itself that a vote for Venezuela would not
matter--it could mean the difference. Carrion agreed about
the risk, and gave the impression he favored abstention.
4. (C) Carrion mentioned that some recent interactions with
the GOV had not been positive. At the Non-Aligned Movement
summit in Havana, Chavez and Palacio were scheduled to talk
about petroleum projects, but Chavez kept Palacio waiting;
Palacio became annoyed and left. During a visit to Quito
this week by the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Maduro raised
the UNSC race only shortly before his departure. Carrion
claims he told Maduro that the GOE was considering the issue,
but had not decided on its vote.
5. (C) Carrion said he would talk to the President again
about this issue today but does not expect an immediate
decision. Carrion also expects a number of rounds of voting
and said he was willing to be in close touch with the Embassy
on Monday. He was not sure whether Palacio would give UN
PermRep Cordova general instructions and let him proceed, or
discuss each round of voting with him.
6. (C) The Ambassador told Carrion that the U.S.
Administration would work for ATPDEA extension. Carrion was
delighted, saying a statement to that effect would be
welcomed here.
7. (C) Comment: The Ambassador's conversation with Carrion
tracks previous dialogues with GOE officials on the issue
(Refs B and C). Carrion's professed discomfort with the
prospect of a Venezuelan presence on the UNSC is not new
either. What is new here is the growing prospect of election
victory by radical leftist Rafael Correa, which clearly gives
the current GOE pause before taking positions relating to
Venezuela.

8. (C) Recommendation: Our impression is that Carrion would
recommend abstention until a viable third candidate emerges.
However, it is clear the decision rests with Palacio, and the
best opportunity to influence it lies in the Secretary's
planned call to him. In addition to the arguments on this
issue, it might be useful also to note that a vote for
Venezuela would make it harder for the administration to
convince Congress to extend ATPDEA preferences for Ecuador.
JEWELL

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