Cablegate: Spain: Visit of Venezuela Coordinator Deborah

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002583

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WHA FOR HAZEL THOMAS AND LOURDES CUE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV SNAR UNSC SP VE
SUBJECT: SPAIN: VISIT OF VENEZUELA COORDINATOR DEBORAH
MCCARTH...

id: 81813
date: 10/13/2006 14:24
refid: 06MADRID2583
origin: Embassy Madrid
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 06MADRID2564|06MADRID2583
header:
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DE RUEHMD #2583/01 2861424
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131424Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1011
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA PRIORITY 2139
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0219

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002583

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA FOR HAZEL THOMAS AND LOURDES CUE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV SNAR UNSC SP VE
SUBJECT: SPAIN: VISIT OF VENEZUELA COORDINATOR DEBORAH
MCCARTHY

REF: MADRID 2564

MADRID 00002583 001.2 OF 002

Classified By: DCM Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: Special Coordinator for Venezuela Deborah
McCarthy met with representatives of the Spanish Foreign
Ministry and National Security Council on October 4 to
discuss U.S. policy on Venezuela and Latin America. McCarthy
also conducted interviews with two Spanish media outlets and
one Latin American radio station, achieving layered media
coverage on U.S. concerns in Venezuela. GOS representatives
shared USG concerns on narco-trafficking, the excesses of
Chavez rhetoric, and the ongoing clash of ideologies in Latin
America, but they expressed optimism that the upcoming
Venezuelan elections would provide a reality check for
Chavez. MFA DG for Latin America Javier Sandomingo also
informed McCarthy that the Spanish were seeking to help
Guatemala's UNSC candidacy where possible, including in
Africa, where Guatemala has almost no representation. END
SUMMARY.

//National Security Council//

2. (C) McCarthy met October 4 with Jose Javier Gomez-Llera
and Maria Solanas Cardin, advisors to the Spanish National
Security Council. Gomez-Llera began by mentioning the
Ecuador elections and told McCarthy that the Spanish have
seen a lot of money flowing into the Correa campaign from
Venezuela. He said it was possible that both the Mexican and
Peruvian governments might comment on this phenomenon.

3. (C) Gomez-Llera asked McCarthy whether the U.S. had
considered the possibility of a compromise UNSC candidate
should Venezuela and Guatemala reach a deadlock. He said
that the Peruvians might propose Uruguay as such a candidate.
McCarthy responded that the USG is not discussing it, and
she outlined the strong case for Guatemala. McCarthy
acknowledged that GRULAC may eventually need to contemplate a
third option, and she offered possibilities of Costa Rica,
Trinidad, the Dominican Republic, or Uruguay. McCarthy also
said that some OAS countries are truly frustrated with
Venezuela's obstinacy in international fora. She also noted
that Chavez' performance at UNGA appeared to have tipped some
nations away from Venezuela.

4. (C) On the December presidential election in Venezuela,
Gomez-Llera stated his belief that the opposition's chances
are improving and that Rosales would put forth a good
showing. McCarthy agreed and stated that the U.S. objective
is an opposition with the right and the will to participate -
even if Chavez wins this election - whether in the Parliament
or purely in civil society for the moment. Solanas Cardin
stated that this is Spain's position as well. McCarthy also
said that the U.S. is concerned about the potential for
property seizures and a lack of respect for property rights.

5. (C) McCarthy also emphasized that the door remains open
for dialogue with Venezuela, although the GOV has not
accepted the standing offer for a visit from A/S Shannon.
She noted that while it would be difficult to characterize
current bilateral relations as a dialogue, the U.S. believes
that expanded communication will be possible after the
elections on matters such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and
border control.

6. (C) Gomez-Llera mentioned Bolivia and statements made to
the GOS by Kirchner and Lula that Chavez really does not
exert as much influence over Morales as is reported.
McCarthy noted that Castro has always been the primary
influence on socialists in Latin America but that Chavez
certainly has influence with Morales. Gomez-Llera said he
feels that Brazil should play a more active role in reining
in Venezuela and noted that Colombia could do little given
its long history with Venezuela. On Colombia, McCarthy noted
that there is concern that some of the enormous quantity of
AK-47's purchased by the GOV might be making their way into
the hands of the FARC, not through complicity of the GOV but
through black market forces.

7. (C) McCarthy offered two final points on Venezuela,
noting USG concern with the GOV's burgeoning relationship
with Iran and with the potential role of Venezuela in
post-Castro Cuba. Both Gomez-Llera and Solanas Cardin said
they thought Cubans would not allow Chavez to assert himself
in Cuba. They said the Cubans view Chavez as a loyal student
and practitioner of Castroism abroad, but not as a natural
successor to Castroism in Cuba.

MADRID 00002583 002.2 OF 002

8. (C) Gomez-Llera closed the meeting by stating that
Europe and Spain are waking up to the puzzle of Latin America
and have taken it upon themselves to attempt to promote a
European integration model to Latin America. Following the
elections in Bolivia and Venezuela, and their adverse impact
on European economic interests, European policymakers are
keen to engage more actively in defense of those interests.

//Director General Sandomingo//

9. (C) Director General for Iberoamerica Javier Sandomingo
reiterated many of Gomez-Llera's points in his meeting with
McCarthy later in the day. Sandomingo began by mentioning
the Latin America Working Group meeting at UNGA and A/S
Shannon's proposal for Spain to craft some new assistance
packages for Latin America on democracy building, poverty and
education. Sandomingo said that the GOS was looking at the
idea and would probably produce something concrete in the
next few months.

10. (C) Sandomingo then turned to Cuba, stating his belief
that the transition will be faster and more turbulent than
the Spanish transition, but that the GOS priority is that it
not get out of hand. He stated that if Raul Castro was the
man to ensure such a transition the GOS would accept that.
Sandomingo also felt that Chavez would have a minimal role in
post-Castro Cuba.

11. (C) On Chavez, Sandomingo noted the possibility of a
surprise in the December election. While he would put most
of his money on Chavez, Sandomingo said he would at least
hedge his bet because he feels Rosales will do better than
expected. He believes a coherent opposition would arise in
the aftermath of the election. Sandomingo expressed
reservations about the role for EU observers in the December
election, noting that Chavez might set such strict conditions
on the observer missions that it would be impossible for the
EU to participate.

12. (C) Sandomingo offered GOS assistance in examining the
Iran-Venezuela relationship, and he noted that this
friendship (along with those of Belarus and Russia) would not
help Chavez at the polls.

13. (C) McCarthy mentioned the Security Council vote and
asked Sandomingo if Spain could help Guatemala. Sandomingo
replied that the Spanish had sat down with Guatemala at UNGA
to go over the countries where they needed help (reftel).
Sandomingo said that Spain would try to help in African
countries where Guatemala has no representation, but he noted
that Angola and others were almost certain to vote for
Venezuela.

14. (U) Special Coordinator McCarthy cleared this report.

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Visit Embassy Madrid's Classified Website;
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/madrid/
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AGUIRRE

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