Cablegate: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for the Week Ending

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DE RUEHBU #2139/01 2622200
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 192200Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5958
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
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RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002139

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PASS NSC FOR JOSE CARDENAS
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for the week ending
September 15, 2006

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Weekly Highlights
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- GDP up 7.9 percent yoy in Q2 2006.
- GOA announces 13 percent rise in pension payments.
- 2007 budget may incorporate lower GDP growth projection.
- Argentina and Venezuela joint oil company plan advances.
- Argentine provinces prepares for power shortages.
- Argentine and Chilean presidents push economic integration.
- Multilateral real exchange rate depreciates 0.3 percent m-o-m in
August.
- Commentary of the Week: "Disrupted Energy"

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GDP up 7.9 percent yoy in Q2 2006.
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1. The GOA announced that GDP grew 7.9 percent yoy in the second
quarter of 2006 -- slightly above the central bank (BCRA) consensus
forecast of 7.8 percent -- and 8.3 percent yoy in the first half of
2006. Growth derived primarily from strong domestic demand -
primarily increased investment and higher private and public
consumption - boosted by a 3.1 percent increase in exports. During
the second quarter, investment grew 18.5 percent yoy, with increases
of 23.2 percent yoy in construction and 11 percent yoy in plant and
machinery investment. Private consumption rose 8.2 percent yoy, and
public consumption was up 6.5 percent yoy. Goods and services
production increased 8.2 percent and 7.5 percent yoy, respectively.
The BCRA forecast for GDP growth stand at 7.8 percent for 2006 and 6
percent for 2007.

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GOA announces 13 percent rise in pension payments.
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2. On August 8, the Argentine Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional
a GoA plan for selective pension increases that favored low income
earners, instead requiring across the board increases to restore
pensioner purchasing power. The GoA modified its plan accordingly
and, effective January 1, 2007, the monthly minimum pension paid to
retirees will increase from ARP 470 to ARP 560. Pensions above the
minimum will be increased 13 percent. This will be the second
across the board increase in pension payments since an 11 percent
increase in May 2002. The GOA estimates this policy's fiscal cost
at approximately ARP 4.1 billion in 2007, roughly 0.55 percent of
GDP.

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2007 budget may incorporate lower GDP growth projection.
--------------------------------------------- --------

3. Local media reported preliminary macroeconomic projections that
the GOA will likely include in the 2007 budget -- which is expected
to be sent to Congress on September 15. Reportedly, the projections
may include: 4 percent GDP growth, an 8-11 percent inflation band
(with a 9 percent average) and primary fiscal surplus totaling 3.2
percent of GDP. Previous reports indicated that the GOA could
project GDP growth as high as 4.5 percent. This downward trend is
in line with GOA's practice of underestimating growth, only to later
recognize "unexpected" revenues to spend out of the budget (BCRA's
consensus survey forecasts a 6 percent GDP growth for 2007).

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Argentina and Venezuela joint oil company plan advances.
--------------------------------------------- --------

4. Argentina's General Inspection of Justice approved the
establishment of a joint venture between Venezuela's state-owned oil
company PDVSA and GOA-owned Enarsa, with an initial capitalization
of ARP 2 billion. PDVSA will hold a 60 percent stake in the joint
venture and Enarsa 40 percent. The company will be established
under the Energy Cooperation Agreement framework and will be
responsible for the production, transportation and sales of national
and international hydrocarbons.

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Argentine provinces prepare for power shortages.
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5. Argentine provinces are setting up contingency plans to deal
with possible power shortages during the coming austral summer:
Misiones is exploring the potential to purchase energy from
Paraguay; Catamarca is considering a declaration of a provincial
energy emergency in order to permit the provincial government to
acquire back-up power generators; Entre Rios is considering
extending daylight saving time to save energy; and more industrially
developed Cordoba and Santa Fe are following the federal
government's policy of imposing administrative controls on
industrial power consumption. Only Tucuman's governor Jose
Alperovich is considering electricity tariffs increases, saying that
a long term solution to Argentina's energy shortage will require
appropriate pricing to incent new investment by wholesale
electricity suppliers.

6. On September 13, the Senate approved a bill to promote electric
power production from renewable resources via tax reimbursements.
The GoA's goal is to have renewable resources (wind power, biogas
and geothermic power) contribute 8 percent of electric power
consumption by the year 2015.

--------------------------------------------- --------
Multilateral real exchange rate depreciates 0.3 percent m-o-m in
August.
--------------------------------------------- --------

7. The BCRA's multilateral real exchange rate index -- which
measures the real exchange against a trade-weighted basket of
currencies -- depreciated 0.3 percent m-o-m in August. This
weighted real depreciation is largely explained by the depreciation
of the peso against the Brazilian real (35.3 percent weight) and the
Euro (19.2 percent weight), partially offset by an appreciation
against the dollar (14.5 percent weight). The index is 3.8 percent
above its level twelve months ago and 106.1 percent above its
average value during convertibility.

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Argentine and Chilean presidents push for further economic
integration.
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8. On September 12, Argentine and Chilean presidents Nestor
Kirchner and Michelle Bachelet agreed to reopen, by the end of 2009,
a cross-Andes cargo and passenger train route that has been idle
since 1984. Both presidents called the initiative a move to further
economic integration and to better manage growing cross-border
trade.

9. The presidents also discussed gas pricing, an ongoing source of
bilateral friction. Local media reported that President Kirchner
denied President Bachelet's request to maintain the cost of gas
exports to Chile below levels Argentina currently pays for Bolivia
gas. Following a re-negotiation of gas supply prices in June 2006,
Argentina currently pays Bolivia in the $5/million BTU range,
roughly 55 percent above the $3.20 /MBTU price Argentina had
previously paid. Current Bolivian deliveries to Argentina are in
the 4.5 million cubic meters/day range, with plans to increase
imports to as high as 20 million cubic meters a day following
planned construction of additional pipeline capacity. For its part,
Argentina currently supplies Chile roughly three times the amount
Argentina imports from Bolivia - in the range of 15 million cubic
meters/day of natural gas per day. The price of Argentine natural
gas exports to Chile rose to the $4.80/million BTU range - roughly
equivalent to Argentina's current cost of gas imports from Bolivia -
following an increase in Argentina's gas export tax this past summer
(austral winter) from 20 percent to 45 percent.

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Minister of Economy at annual Bank/Fund meeting in Singapore.
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10. Economic Minister Felisa Miceli, will speak on behalf of her
Mercosur colleagues at the IMF's International Monetary and
Financial Committee meeting September 18.

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National public sector' debt decreased 0.1 percent between December
2005 and March 2006.
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11. According to Argentine Secretariat of Finance, national public
sector's stock of debt totaled USD 152 billion in March 2006,
approximately 80.4 percent of GDP (including debt owed to holdout
investors). Public debt decreased USD 157 million between December
2005 and March 2006. With valuation adjustments due to exchange
rate changes, inflation, capitalization and interest payments delays
excluded, public debt rose USD 165 million.

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Banco Nacion holds 24.6 percent of outstanding BCRA debt
instruments.
--------------------------------------------- --------

12. State-owned Banco Nacion remains the primary holder of BCRA
debt instruments, with 24.6 percent of the outstanding Lebac and
Nobac stock. BBVA Banco Frances is second, with 5.31 percent of the
stock.

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Petrobras and YPF announce participation in GOA's oil exploration
program.
--------------------------------------------- --------

13. A unit of Brazil's state energy company Petrobras will team up
with Repsol unit in Argentina YPF and GOA-owned energy company
Enarsa, to expand oil exploration off Argentina's Atlantic coast.
This consortium will search for hydrocarbons in waters about 155
miles off Mar del Plata. Petrobras and YPF will finance all
exploration efforts, with Enarsa reimbursing them for its share of
the total investment if commercially viable resources are found.
[Enarsa owns all exploration permits and production concessions for
offshore areas that were not under license when it was created by
law on November 2, 2004]

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The GOA launches mortgage loan access plan.
--------------------------------------------- --------

14. On September 14, the GOA launched its plan to ease mortgage
loan access, in an effort to control rising rent prices. As
expected, state-owned Banco Nacion announced the most "aggressive"
credit line, with an 8.4 percent annual fixed rate, a 30-year term
and a maximum amount of between ARP 200,000 and ARP 300,000.
Private banks offered more conservative programs, with fixed rates
ranging from 9.05 percent to 9.75 percent.

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BCRA president Redrado on importance of independent monetary and
financial institutions.
--------------------------------------------- --------

15. On September 13, during a meeting of central bankers held in
Manila, BCRA president Martin Redrado discussed the importance of
maintaining independent monetary and financial institutions to guard
against "fiscal domination" by the state. Redrado praised
Argentina's "strength" in confronting global financial "turbulence"
via a combination of fiscal solvency, exchange rate flexibility and
cautious monetary policy.

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BCRA rolls over maturities.
--------------------------------------------- --------

16. The BCRA received ARP 1.1 billion in bids at its September 12
Lebac and Nobac auction, vs. ARP 767 million in Lebacs that came due
this week. BCRA accepted ARP 625 million in Lebac bids and ARP 255
million in Nobac bids. The yields on the 175-day Lebac and 224-day
Lebac were 8.41 percent and 10.30 percent. The yields on the
357-day Lebac and on the longest term instrument, the 609-day Lebac,
decreased from 11.55 percent to 11.54 percent and from 12.25 percent
to 12.20 percent, respectively. The 504-day Lebac was withdrawn
because of the BCRA's decision not to validate the yield proposed by
the market. The spread on the one-year Nobac increased from 1.18
percent to 1.19 percent and for the two-year Nobac decreased from
2.84 percent to 2.76 percent. The Badlar rate (the base rate for
Nobacs) is currently at 9.4 percent. Rates fell in most segments,
but not as much as in recent weeks, even though demand for these
instruments remained strong.

--------------------------------------------- --------

Peso depreciates against the USD, closing at 3.12 ARP/USD.
--------------------------------------------- --------

17. The peso depreciated slightly vs. the USD September 12 and
remained at 3.12 ARP/USD for the rest of the week. Recent peso
fluctuations are a function of active BCRA intervention in the
dollar market. The peso exchange rate has depreciated 2.3 percent
since the beginning of the calendar year. BCRA's reserves stood at
USD 27.6 billion as of September 13, and have increased USD 9.1
billion, or 49 percent, since the GOA prepaid its entire IMF debt on
January 2, 2006

--------------------------------------------- --------
Commentary of the week: "Disrupted Energy", by Federico Thomsen,
informal translation of an article published September 7 in El
Cronista Comercial.
--------------------------------------------- --------

18. The government dislikes rumors about an energy crisis. It says
that, even though consumption of gas and electricity grew in
Argentina, residential consumers did not suffer from cuts and
productive sectors are growing and investing strongly. The
government adds that it is adopting measures to increase energy
supply.

19. This is true. What is unclear, however, it is why the
Executive Branch is dismantling, without public debate, an energy
sector structure that was working very well.

20. In 1993, the government concluded world class gas and
electricity market reforms. With legislation approved by Congress,
electricity production, transportation and distribution systems were
separated, companies were privatized and competition was introduced
whenever possible. The system served the economy's energy needs
very well.

21. Once the 2001-2002 crisis passed, an energy sector transition
could have been justified in order to adjust the system to the new
economic realities. Sadly, the Government took another direction:

- The Government fixed tariffs via political criteria; current low
tariffs neither promote proper rationing of demand nor stimulate
supply. There was no move to create a "social tariff" to
accommodate low income consumers, while normalizing tariffs for the
remainder to market rates.
- Even though the Government criticized Argentine energy sector
regulatory agencies because of their alleged inefficacy, it did
nothing to improve them. By the end of 2003, instead of filling
vacant posts on ENRE and Enargas boards by merit according to law,
the government filled vacancies by decree using political criteria.

- The Government became an energy sector investor given that,
without proper tariffs nor credit access, private companies will not
invest to expand the system. Therefore, authorities decide what to
expand, which companies will do it, how to finance them, and who and
how they are paid, with the subsequent risks of politicization,
inefficiency and lack of transparency.
- The Government created a State Energy Company, Enarsa S.A. which,
though resource poor, is acting in the market.

26. All these steps have shifted the organization of the energy
sector, without a clear view of just where this new hybrid
state-private sector model is going. Are we going back to a
desirable private and competitive energy market or, are we going to
recreate, step by step, a state system similar to the one that
failed in the past? Numerous current and potential investors want
to know the answer to this question. According to the Spanish Royal
Academy, "crisis" means a decisive moment for an important business,
with profound consequences. In this sense, the Argentine energy
system is in crisis. (Note: We reproduce selected articles by local
experts for the benefit of our readers. The opinions expressed are
those of the authors, not of the Embassy. End Note.)

MATERA
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