Cablegate: Labour Loses Support Amid Poisonous Body Politic

VZCZCXRO1227
RR RUEHNZ RUEHPT
DE RUEHWL #0756/01 2700059
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270059Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3309
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0934
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4548
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0463
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 0009
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000756

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: LABOUR LOSES SUPPORT AMID POISONOUS BODY POLITIC

REF: Wellington 735

Summary
-------

1. (SBU) PM Helen Clark's withering attack on National Party leader
Dr. Don Brash has sent National surging ahead in latest NZ political
polls. Late last week, Clark called for a halt to smears on MPs'
personal lives and, in the next sentence, called Brash "corrosive
and cancerous". National claimed the PM's attack was designed to
distract attention from National's allegations the Government had
illegally used public money on its electoral campaign. The Nats'
prediction that the name calling would backfire against Labour
appears to have been borne out in the polls. Labour's problems are
compounded by the Greens decision not to support Labour's proposal
for legislation validating Labour's election spending.

Polls signal public backlash over Labour's tactics
--------------------------------------------- -----

2. (SBU) In the backwash of allegations of election misspending
(reftel) and widespread public disquiet over Labour's counterattacks
against Don Brash, the latest poll from Colmar Brunton, which has
historically favored the National party, finds that National has
moved 11 points ahead of Labour (49% to 38%). Labour has dropped 5
points and National has gained 4 points since the last poll in
August. Government approval had dropped 6 points to 38%, with
disapproval climbing 8% to nearly half of all voters. Although Brash
climbed 3% and Clark's dipped 1% in the Preferred PM stakes, he
still trails her 36% to 18%. A snap Herald Digipoll survey,
published September 26, tracked the Colmar Brunton poll with
National at 45.7% and Labour at 38% among decided voters. Although
the 7.7 point gap in party vote remains the same as the last
Herald's poll in August, there was significant change in personal
polling where Brash climbed 3.5 points to 25.9% while Clark dropped
a further 2 points to 50.4% (which is down 6.6% from April).

3. (SBU) These findings will cause considerable angst for Labour,
especially as the UMR poll, published September 11, showed similar
results. UMR are Labour's pollsters, so the mutually reinforcing
results are even more ominous and the Government cannot easily
dispute them.
Public displeased by PM's vitriolic attack on Brash
--------------------------------------------- ------

4. (SBU) Already uncomfortable about the heightened levels of
personal attacks in current political discourse, Kiwis are
apparently shocked by Clark's use of extreme rhetoric to hit back at
National. Still smarting from having to deny rumors about her
husband Peter Davis' sexuality this week (reftel), Clark responded
by unleashing a ferocious verbal assault on National, and in
particular Brash himself.

5. (SBU) In a radio interview, Clark made it clear that accusations
of corruption by National were intolerable in a Western democracy
and would not be taken lying down. She said the political atmosphere
had become difficult since National began throwing around "extreme
and polarizing rhetoric", and reminded listeners that Brash had met
with and accepted funds from "the extremist" Christian Exclusive
Brethren. Claiming that senior National MPs know that Brash is not
fit to lead his party or the country, Clark announced that "Labour
regards Dr Brash as a corrosive and cancerous person within the New
Zealand political system." Clark disputed that this was a personal
attack on Brash, instead claiming it was an attack on National's
"brand." However she pointedly noted that the brand cannot be
separated from Brash the man. Brash's response was to urge Clark to
"get out of the gutter." He claimed that her comments would backfire
on Labour.

Additional problems for Labour
------------------------------

6. (SBU) Applying more pressure on Labour, its political ally, the
Green Party, has announced that it would not support any laws
validating election spending deemed to be unlawful. Labour has toyed
with the idea of introducing contentious retroactive legislation to
validate its alleged overspending during the last election campaign.
The Greens refusal to support any such legislation means that Labour

WELLINGTON 00000756 002 OF 002

will have to rely on the support of both NZ First and United Future
to secure safe passage through the House. NZ First leader (and
Foreign Minister) Winston Peters is on official travel and his views
on the campaign funding legislation are unknown. But Peters -- a
champion mudslinger in Parliament -- has called on both Labour and
National to stop the damaging rhetoric.

7. (SBU) Comment: Clark's strongly-worded comments send an
unambiguous message to National, and indeed to voters, that while
MPs private lives are off-limits, political personas are still very
much fair game. The PM's comments came at a time when both the media
and public have urged a halt to politicians' vicious personal
attacks. Many NZers thought her comments over-the-top, even for
current standards. The Herald Digipoll revealed that 73.6% of those
polled found the "corrosive and cancerous" comment was "not okay".
(Among the critics is a Kiwi with cancer who called the PM's remarks
insensitive.) The tactic of questioning Brash's political worth is
Labour's latest attempt to shift public focus from the imminent
release of the Auditor-General's report on illegal election
spending. Expect Labour to use other tactics in the coming weeks,
such as seeking to highlight National's high proportion of anonymous
donations and its links to the Exclusive Brethren.

Keegan

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