Cablegate: Media Reaction: Western Hemisphere: Cuba, Castro's Health;

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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0847 2151120
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031120Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5538
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6612
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7322
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2525

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000847

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: CUBA, CASTRO'S HEALTH;
SAO PAULO

"Democracy in Cuba"

The lead editorial in liberal, largest national circulation daily
Folha de S. Paulo (8/3) remarked: "Considering the little
information available [regarding Castro's health], it is premature
to believe that Castro's era and the Cuban regime are over. But the
unprecedented fact that power has been transferred to his brother
Raul Castro indicates that the island is preparing a transition.
What is desirable is that a status of full democratic freedom is
soon achieved. Brazilian diplomacy should work within
non-intervention limits towards that goal.... Raul Castro is an
unknown, does not have his brother's charisma and is a hardliner
responsible for executing dozens of dictator Fulgencio Batista's
supporters.... Everything indicates that he will follow his
brother's policy, thereby maintaining the closed regime. It is
possible that Washington wants to take advantage of a succession in
Cuba to overthrow the regime. This may not be the best strategy to
bring democracy to the island. A negotiated democratic transition
seems to be a better and less traumatic solution. Suggesting the end
of the US-imposed commercial blockade tends to be a more effective
method of obtaining concessions from the communist officials than
demonstrations of force or veiled threats. The main obstacle to this
strategy is the strong ideological colors with which Washington
depicts Cuba.... Along with other nations, especially the EU, Canada
and Mexico, Brazil's diplomats should concentrate efforts both to
convince the Cuban authorities to agree with a political opening and
to prevent the White House from carrying out revenge against
Castro's successors.... Unfortunately, the record of Brazilian
diplomacy in regards to Cuba is bad. Since President Lula da Silva
was inaugurated, our diplomacy has limited itself to flattering
Fidel Castro, without censoring him for human rights violations."
McMullen

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