Cablegate: Hardline Message Still Pushed by Bashir

VZCZCXRO3361
PP RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1964 2291505
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171505Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4203
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001964

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ER SU
SUBJECT: HARDLINE MESSAGE STILL PUSHED BY BASHIR

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During the past week the Government of Sudan
appeared to continue to move to the right. President Bashir spoke
in strident tones about the UN, and compared fighting an
international peacekeeping force to Hezbollah's conflict with
Israel, senior regime officials traveled to the North in an apparent
effort to firm up the NCP's base of support, and rumors circulated
of a reshuffle of certain senior government figures to empower the
regime hardliners. End summary.

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Officials' Comments and Editorials More Strident
--------------------------------------------- ---

2. (SBU) Statements in the past week by President Omer Hassan
al-Bashir and other National Congress Party leaders have lauded the
outcome of fighting in Israel and Palestine. Bashir has gone
further in recent days by pledging to fight the UN like Hezbollah
fought the Israelis. His comparison is a continuation of his
rhetoric against UN involvement in Darfur, and appears calculated to
build ideological and emotional support in advance of an anticipated
offensive in Darfur and to counter international pressure which may
result.

3. (SBU) The inflammatory remarks have been reported extensively in
the Arabic and English-language press, and have been repeated in
editorials (covered septel). Bashir commended "the steadfastness of
Hezbollah under the leadership of Nasrallah" and hailed the struggle
of the Palestinian peoples, affirming Sudan's solidarity with
Lebanon and Palestine. A senior NCP member praised the "stance of
Hezbollah in the face of the Zionist enemy and the victory achieved
in Lebanon after the Israeli aggression against it."

4. (SBU) Simultaneous statements by regime officials, including Vice
President Ali Osman Taha, and reports published in SUNA, the
national press organ, continued to refer to the proposed UN role in
Darfur in conspiratorial terms. SUNA claimed comments by Jan Pronk
on the increase of violence in Darfur in the past year were timed
specifically to weaken the Sudanese Government stance against a UN
force in Darfur, and to enable the UN to "send a huge military force
in Darfur prior to occupying Sudan."

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High Level Visits to the North
------------------------------

5. (SBU) The analogy with Hezbollah was a recurring theme as leaders
headed north. Vice President Taha visited Northern State August
14-15. President Bashir will visit River Nile State on August 17.
These visits can be seen as an effort to shore up support for the
NCP in the party's base in the North. The visits reassure the
northerners that they are the center of attention and play on the
theme that "outsiders are against us," but that Sudan would prevail.

6. (SBU) In addition, the Minister of Energy and Mining Dr. Awad
Ahmad al-Jaz visited the North on August 16 and met with leaders
there, reaffirming that peace in the East had been nearly finalized.
Interestingly, while in the North, he "announced the discovery of
oil reserves in bloc 14 in Wadi Halfa (northern Sudan) and affirmed
that the area is rich in gold and other mineral resources." His
statements have no basis in reality, but can be seen as a comment
that the North has its own resources and does not need outsiders.
(Comment: In fact, Wadi Halfa is not in block 14, there has been no
oil exploration at Wadi Halfa and geologically it is unlikely oil
will be found in the area. End comment.)

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Government Reshuffle?
---------------------

7. (SBU) Alwan ran a short story recently asserting that there will
be a reshuffling of government positions to accommodate SLM leader
and now Senior Assistant to the President Minni Arkoi Minawi.
Concurrently, there are rumors circulating on what changes will be
made. Notably, it is rumored that National Intelligence and Security
Services Director Salah Gosh will be replaced; either by current
Minister of Interior Zubeir Bashir Taha, or State Minister of
Foreign Affairs Ali Ahmed Karti. Both Taha and Karti are NCP
hardliners, who helped to create the Popular Defense Forces (PDF).

HUME

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