VZCZCXRO0346
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDM #4284 2431358
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 311358Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1316
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 1271
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0160
UNCLAS DAMASCUS 004284
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
NEA/ELA
NSC FOR SINGH
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ENRG ETRD PREL SY
SUBJECT: THE SARG PLAYS WITH THE POWER SWITCH TO LEBANON
REF: 05 DAMASCUS 4675
1. (SBU) Summary. Though the SARG,s chronic electricity
shortage has recently threatened to turn acute, its most
recent cutoff of electricity to Lebanon appears to have been
an attempt to remind the GOL that Syria holds the economic
levers in the bilateral relationship. End summary.
2. (U) After a week-long suspension, the SARG restored
electricity transmissions to Lebanon on August 25. Syria
currently supplies Lebanon with 100 to 140 megawatts of
electricity through two transmission lines ) 110 megawatts
to northern Lebanon via the Tartous-Deir Nabbouth 230
kilovolt (KV) line, and 30 megawatts to the Baqa,a valley
via the Dimas-Anjar 66 KV line. Syria also exports
electricity to Iraq and Jordon, but there is no evidence of
any suspension of exports to either of these countries.
3. (SBU) This month,s outage was the fourth time in the
last year that the SARG had cut electricity transmissions to
Lebanon. In September 2005, following months of
negotiations, the SARG restored electricity transmissions to
Lebanon after a suspension that followed the Syrian troop
withdrawal months before (reftel). The SARG again suspended
electricity transmissions in October 2005, citing non-payment
of an old debt as the reason, but the suspension was widely
viewed here as part of the deteriorating bilateral relations
associated with the Mehlis investigation and the run up to
the UNSCR 1636.
4. (SBU) The only apparent legitimate disruption happened in
June 2006 when the SARG cut electricity to Lebanon for a
third time for reasons.8 The power was restored
in a matter of days with little comment. The latest power
incident began on August 19, when a copy of a letter from the
Syrian Director General of Power Generation and Transmission
addressed to his Lebanese counterpart was published in a
locally distributed Lebanese paper. In his letter, the
Director General stated that the SARG would stop electricity
transmission to Lebanon for technical reasons. The SARG
initially blamed problems with transmissions from Egypt for
the need to cut electricity to Lebanon only to change excuses
when GOE officials denied the SARG assertion that the problem
had anything to do with their network. On August 23, the
Syrian minister of electricity, Ahmad Ali, publicly announced
electricity exports to Lebanon had been restored, claiming
this time the interruption had to do with technical problems
in the Syrian electricity grid.
5. (U) Although even our Syrian interlocutors discount the
Minister,s explanation of the interruption, the SARG,s
power sector is hamstrung by a number of chronic problems.
First, production cannot keep up with demand, which is
currently increasing at ten percent per year. Second, there
have been delays in bringing the new 750 megawatt power plant
in Deir Ali on-line. Additionally, four of Syria,s 13 power
plants are currently off-line for maintenance and upgrades.
This leaves Syria currently 750 megawatts short of demand,
which has translated into increasingly frequent power outages
of six to ten hours in various parts of the country,
excluding Damascus.
6. (SBU) Comment. The SARG,s usually modest shortage of
electricity has peaked recently giving its claim of
problems8 some basis. It also has, however, a
track record of using electricity exports as a political
lever against Lebanon. Most sources believe that the most
recent suspension of electricity exports to Lebanon was a
warning shot intended to remind the GOL there are potential
economic costs for its present political course. This
reasoning certainly jibes with the SARG's repeated threats to
close the Lebanese border if UNIFIL troops take up positions
there.
CORBIN