Cablegate: Yemen's Democratic Reform Strategy Revised

VZCZCXRO1824
PP RUEHDE
DE RUEHYN #2058/01 1990957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180957Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4686
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 002058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM KMPI KMCA YM
SUBJECT: YEMEN'S DEMOCRATIC REFORM STRATEGY REVISED

REF: A. SANAA 926
B. SANAA 1771

SANAA 00002058 001.2 OF 003

1. SUMMARY: Since its articulation of a Democratic Reform
Strategy nearly one year ago, Post has registered a number of
successes. The sustainability of such changes remains
uncertain, however, and they are at best only small steps on
the road to democracy. In order to consolidate recent
reforms and push for additional progress, Post is revising
its Democratic Reform Strategy (DRS) for the coming year.
The new strategy establishes clear milestones for democratic
reform in elections, the media, civil society, and the power
of the President, outlining specific programs Post will use
and develop to achieve these ends. END SUMMARY.

-------------------------
Democratic Reform To Date
-------------------------

2. In the last year, the DRS for the Freedom Agenda has made
great strides in Yemen. Post coordinated a strategy with
other missions and international organizations in Yemen to
press the ROYG to adopt reforms, resulting in a Cabinet
change and a new government reform plan. (REF A) This led to
some improvements in press freedom, rule of law, and
anti-corruption efforts. Post maintained momentum by
engaging the ROYG in its efforts to regain threshold status
for the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and tracking
Yemen's progress on specific reforms.

3. During a MEPI visit to Sanaa in May 2000, Emboffs
discussed with the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI)
team the need for a more targeted Democratic Reform Strategy
in order to capitalize on the current momentum for reform.
It was agreed that a clearer focus would allow Post to better
utilize available resources from MEPI, USAID, and other
sources. In place of the usual Freedom Agenda quarterly
report, this cable aims to reset Embassy Sanaa's goals for
its DRS, and to outline specific strategies for the coming
months.

4. Post will pursue four milestones as the core of Yemen's
DRS, with anti-corruption as a cross-cutting goal in each
area:

* Open and transparent presidential and local council
elections in September;
* Reform of press legislation that protects a free media and
civil society;
* Increased capacity in civil society to effectively advocate
for reform;
* Improved system of checks and balances within ROYG
institutions.

-------------------------------------------
Milestone 1: Open and Transparent Elections
-------------------------------------------

5. Presidential and local council elections are scheduled for
September 2006. Judging by National Democratic Institute
(NDI) reports on recent by-elections and the registration
process, Post is expecting irregularities and will reevaluate
its long-term strategy after September. Nevertheless, a
number of recent developments have increased the importance
of this year's elections. For the first time in Yemen's
history, opposition parties nominated a common candidate to
oppose President Saleh. In addition, the ruling GPC party
and the opposition recently signed an agreement to reform
elections administration and assure equal access to the
media. Post maintains modest expectations, but the following
strategies will help to achieve substantial gains for Yemen's
elections process:

* A MEPI-funded elections monitoring program through NDI
will set benchmarks for upcoming elections and train local
monitors to report violations. The final report will form
the basis of Post conclusions about the ROYG's elections
performance.

* An existing program with the International Foundation for
Electoral Systems (IFES) will train elections staff and help
resolve disputes at the polls peacefully.

* Post will coordinate with the European Union, the United
Nations Development Program and others on diplomatic
approaches with the ROYG following: 1) the upcoming release
of the USG-backed voter registration monitoring effort by
NDI; 2) a planned pre-election assessment by NDI; and 3) the
domestic election effort mentioned above.

----------------------------------------
Milestone 2: Reform of Press Legislation

SANAA 00002058 002.2 OF 003

----------------------------------------

6. Embassy's sustained pressure on the ROYG regarding press
freedom has produced a significant change in policy over the
past quarter. The ROYG suspended a proposed press law,
uniformly opposed by journalists and civil society, pending
further discussions. Attacks against journalists have nearly
disappeared in recent months, largely as a result of the
ROYG's desire to improve its standing with the MCA. The
following strategies are intended to build on this progress
to expand and protect freedom of expression:

* Post will seek the assistance of the MEPI-funded IREX
regional program to work with journalists and civil society
in advocating for free speech and influencing new
legislation.

* Post will coordinate with other donor efforts, including
the BBC Trust and the Danish Media Program, and seek to fill
specific gaps (such as Internet news training) through MEPI
and PD small grants.

* Using such programs as MEPI's regional grant with NYU,
Post will help professionalize Yemen's independent media, and
provide training on how to succeed commercially.

-----------------------------------
Milestone 3: Civil Society Advocacy
-----------------------------------

7. Yemen's civil society is broad and active, but generally
lacking in capacity and basic skills required for effective
organizing and advocacy. Over the past year, Post has
explored a number of program options with MEPI and USAID to
address this need, but has not as yet arrived at the right
formula. Rather than pursue a comprehensive civil society
training facility, the revised strategy will improve NGO
capacity through more targeted interventions:

* A MEPI grant to the Civil Democratic Forum, a local NGO,
will work with welfare organizations to transform them into
effective advocates for human rights and democracy.

* As part of the Democracy Assistance Dialogue, local NGOs
HRITC and the Sisters Arab Forum will strengthen civil
society networks advocating for human rights and democracy in
the region.

* Post will use the MEPI small grants program to identify
promising local NGOs, improving their capacity to become
active players in Yemeni civil society.

* Post endorses the concept (and seeks MEPI support for) an
NGO hub, designed to bring together the most active civil
society members in a democratically run association. Such an
organization will provide programming opportunities to
support local NGOs in effective networking and advocacy
strategies, with a focus on pressing governance issues such
as corruption.

--------------------------------
Milestone 4: Checks and Balances
--------------------------------

8. President Saleh's recent decision to seek another
seven-year term ensures that he will remain a dominant force
in the Yemeni polity for the foreseeable future. In recent
months, however, there have been promising signs that Saleh
may be willing to relinquish some of his power to other
branches of government. In May, Saleh signed a law removing
the Supreme Judicial Council from the office of the
President. (REF B) Earlier in the year, Parliament overrode
a Presidential veto for the first time in its history. In
the revised DRS, Post seeks to support this trend and utilize
all available expertise to this end:

* The MEPI-funded ABA/CEELI office in Sanaa will focus on
assisting the Supreme Judicial Council to establish its
independence from the executive branch.

* Post will support NDI in its work with reform-minded
parliamentarians, especially as they tackle issues of
corruption and public finance, and look to expand the program
to work directly with relevant parliamentary committees (e.g.
finance and budget).

* USAID will extend support for decentralization and assess
the effectiveness of such efforts, in cooperation with UNDP,
with the aim of strengthening fiscal autonomy and civil
society participation in local government. Post will employ
additional diplomatic approaches to the ROYG to encourage the
transfer of funds for central to local authorities.

SANAA 00002058 003.2 OF 003

* Post will explore possibilities for supporting
anti-corruption initiatives both in government and civil
society, following a USAID assessment in the summer of 2006.
Khoury

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