Cablegate: Afro-Ecuadorian Heartland Ripe for Populist Appeal

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DE RUEHQT #1657/01 1872234
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FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4769
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5762
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1848
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL 9930
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0733
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0778
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001657

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EC
SUBJECT: AFRO-ECUADORIAN HEARTLAND RIPE FOR POPULIST APPEAL

1. (SBU) Summary: The province of Esmeraldas is the largest
of two centers of the minority Afro-Ecuadorian population.
The province is also marked by high unemployment and
underdevelopment, fueling populist electoral appeal. Since
2002, the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD), a Marxist
populist political party, has held sway over the province.
The presidential race, however, remains unclear. Populist
candidate Alvaro Noboa's 2002 win in the province over Lucio
Gutierrez suggests that Noboa, who may win Gutierrez'
endorsement this time, might again capture considerable
support. End Summary.

Background
----------

2. (U) During a visit to the northern coastal province of
Esmeraldas on June 28-30 PolOff met with municipal and
provincial administrators, electoral officials, political
party leaders, and civil society representatives to discuss
preparations for the upcoming national elections. In public
outreach events PolOff stressed the importance of voter
responsibility and citizen participation in the electoral
process, and highlighted USG investment in the region.

3. (U) Esmeraldas is located in the northwest portion of
Ecuador and shares a border with Colombia and the Ecuadorian
provinces of Carchi, Imbabura, Pichincha, and Manabi. The
majority of the province's 400,000 residents are
Afro-Ecuadorian. The region is a leader in the production of
tobacco, coffee, cacao, and bananas. Seventy-six percent of
the population lives in poverty, making it the poorest
province in Ecuador. Few exporting industries are based
there, and most of the region's raw natural materials are
transported to other provinces for processing and shipped
from Guayaquil or Manta.

4. (SBU) Esmeraldas' high incidence of poverty,
unemployment, lack of viable industries, and Plan Colombia
spillover impact make it a prime target for money laundering
and narco-terrorist related activity, Mayor Estupinan told
PolOff and AidOff on June 30. He expressed concern that the
impoverished province is on the brink of developing a
narcotics trade-based economy, and asked that the U.S. do
more to help. Former Esmeraldas prefect and current
congressional candidate Homero Lopez (PRE) and PSC Party
provincial vice president Arturo Rodriguez agreed. Both
expressed the need to develop Esmeraldas, port, and lamented
the lack of support from the GOE. All agreed on the need for
greater regional autonomy, calling the central government
cumbersome, ineffective, and out of touch with socioeconomic
realities in Esmeraldas.

Provincial Electoral History
----------------------------

5. (U) The Province of Esmeraldas has approximately 276,000
registered voters, representing 3 percent of the national
electorate. Esmeraldas' extreme poverty and history of weak
governance and corruption have made voters disaffected and
open to populist appeal. In 2004, voters elected Lucia Sosa
Robinson (MPD) Prefect, beating incumbent Homero Lopez Saud
of Abdala Bucaram's PRE. Popular Esmeraldas Mayor Ernesto
Estupinan Quintero (MPD) easily secured a second term in 2004
with 62 percent of the vote. PRIAN populist presidential
hopeful Alvaro Noboa beat fellow populist Lucio Gutierrez,
winning 60 percent of the votes in the second round of the
presidential elections 2002.

6. (SBU) Estupinan is credited with cleaning up the
provincial capital of Esmeraldas and claims to be fighting
corruption. Esmeraldas' MPD party currently holds one of the
province's four congressional seats, three of the seven
provincial council seats, and eight of the eleven city
council seats in the provincial capital. At the local level,
they have been pragmatic, willing partners for USAID and
other Embassy projects. At the national level, however, the
MPD pushes an anti-American agenda with extreme leftist and
populist tendencies. The MPD opposed the FTA, supported the
GOE's decision to expel Occidental Petroleum, and has
routinely called for the closure of the Manta FOL. The party
also has complete control over Ecuador's teacher's union and
the Ministry of Education.

Electoral Preparation Advances
------------------------------
7. (SBU) PolOff met with Esmeraldas Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
Vice President Gary Espinoza in his office on June 29.
Espinoza reported normal electoral preparation activity in
his sector. He said that the Esmeraldas TSE plans to open 25
new polling stations in rural areas to help reduce voter
absenteeism. Espinoza denied any significant electoral
fraud, but said that the province had experienced large voter
address changes in the 2004 local and provincial elections,
forcing the national TSE to suspended address changes in the
cities Atacames and Los Rios. He believes this to be more of
a problem in mayoral and provincial races, where small
changes could tip election results. Espinoza said that
without regulatory change from Quito, there was little his
office could do to combat fraudulent address changes.

8. (SBU) Espinoza claimed that the TSE's relationship with
local NGO Citizen Participation's coordinator Piedad Ortiz is
good, although Ortiz rarely contacts him. He also saw a need
to introduce civic participation and voter responsibility
material into the educational system. Espinoza asked for
greater USG assistance in this area, as well as with training
for TSE workers.

9. (SBU) Ortiz told PolOff and AidOff on June 30 that
election preparations were progressing well, and that her
office had already begun training local volunteer election
monitors. She commended the TSE for establishing new polling
stations, and confirmed a constructive working relationship
between the two organizations. Ortiz said that 100 used
ballots were discovered in the trash in the 2004 elections,
and that her office had demanded an investigation, which was
rebuffed. She also reported that Estupinan and Sosa often
place political propaganda at completed public works
projects, a violation of election rules. Ortiz said that she
had filed repeated complaints, but nothing had come of them.
The current MPD leadership often publicly criticizes Citizen
Participation as "tool of the imperialists" (USG), she said.

Presidential Race Unclear
-------------------------

10. (SBU) Government officials, political insiders, and
civil society leaders all claimed that it was too early to
name a presidential front-runner in Esmeraldas. However, the
area's populist leanings and prior support for Alvaro
Noboa suggests that he may again attract strong support,
especially if he wins Gutierrez' endorsement. Others believe
that Cynthia Viteri might also delivery a strong showing.
Center-left candidate Leon Roldos, who is leading in national
polls, appears to have little support in the province.

Outreach Activity
-----------------

11. (U) PolOff on June 29 met with the NGO "Permanent
Women's Forum" of Esmeraldas to show a HBO video on the life
of Rosa Parks and to discuss participatory democracy. An
active, attentive group of over 20 women, several men, and a
local journalist attended the evening session. PolOff
stressed the need to organize and actively participate in the
electoral process to affect change. Participants asked what
the U.S. was doing to help empower Afro-Ecuadorians and asked
if the Embassy could help connect them with African-American
organizations that might help with social and economic
development. PolOff outlined USG initiatives aimed at
supporting political participation and highlighted USG
investments in potable water, sanitation, and other basic
services. Audience members were very receptive, emphasizing
the marginalization of the Afro-Ecuadorian population.

12. (SBU) PolOff on June 29 had an unexpected press
conference with Esmeraldas Prefect Lucia Sosa. The event,
initially scheduled as a private meeting with Sosa, quickly
morphed into Sosa's own dog-and-pony show. PolOff was
immediately bombarded by members of the press upon entering
Sosa's office, and they remained throughout the 30-minute
minute exchange. Sosa, sitting across from PolOff, but
looking into the cameras, went on a Chavez-style rant about
the impact of Plan Colombia on Esmeraldas and the need for
the U.S. to do more. PolOff expressed continued U.S. support
for Ecuador in the areas of security and development along
the northern border, and highlighted investment in basic
sanitation, potable water, and income generation projects.

Comment
-------

13. (SBU) Election preparation in Esmeraldas appears to be
moving forward relatively well given the region's financial
and capacity limitations. Government officials, political
party representatives, and civil society leaders agree that
residents remain disillusioned by historic GOE neglect and
corruption and weak governance at the municipal and
provincial level. With the highest poverty levels in
Ecuador, proximity to rebel-held territory in Colombia, and
continued neglect from the central government, Esmeraldas is
fertile ground for Colombian narco-terrorist influence and
populist anti-American rhetoric, underscoring the need for
USG and GOE engagement and investment in the province.
JEWELL

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