Cablegate: Study in the U.S. -- It's Good for Yemen -- It's

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 003471

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S, R, ECA (DPOWELL), ECA/A/S/A, NEA/PPD
(AFERNANDEZ, CWHITTLESEY), IIP/G/NEA, INR/R, CA/VO/I, CA/VO
(GEORGE LYNN)
THE WHITE HOUSE PASS TO NSC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM KPAO SCUL OIIP CVIS XF YM
SUBJECT: STUDY IN THE U.S. -- IT'S GOOD FOR YEMEN -- IT'S
GOOD FOR THE U.S. -- BUT THE NUMBERS ARE WOEFULLY SMALL

1. SUMMARY: As was the case throughout the MENA region,
the number of Yemeni students applying to study in the
United States plummeted after 9/11. The good news is that
the trend line is positive -- our numbers are slowly
climbing after bottoming out in 2003. The bad news is that
even with a more than fifty percent increase in F1 visas
since then, the total number for 2005 will end up well below
half that of 1999. An examination of the visa numbers
shows, moreover, that to the extent overall numbers are
climbing, it is largely a reflection of considerably higher
exchange program numbers (J1 visas) and is only marginally
related to increased F1 students. To the extent that
continued increase in the numbers is possible, it will
require a sustained and enhanced commitment to the array of
exchange programs for which Yemenis are eligible and eagerly
participate. Over the long term, sending more Yemenis to
the United States on the USG nickel is the best investment
we can make in the future of this country and our bilateral
relations with it. We need to dramatically increase funding
for full four-year undergraduate study and post-graduate
exchanges.

A Slow Recovery in Yemeni Student Numbers
-----------------------------------------

2. Table 1 (following) provides the number of issuances for
each type of student visa by year since 1999 (January 1 to
December 31):

TABLE 1: STUDENT VISAS BY TYPE

YEAR -- F1 -- J1 -- M1 -- TOTAL
1999 -- 199 -- 41 -- 5 -- 245
2000 -- 168 -- 38 -- 2 -- 208
2001 -- 116 -- 45 -- 0 -- 161
2002 -- 69 -- 73 -- 0 -- 142
2003 -- 47 -- 72 -- 0 -- 119
2004 -- 62 -- 110 -- 0 -- 172
2005*-- 70 -- 105 -- 2 -- 177

*2005 numbers are as of December 6.

3. The number of issued F1 visas shows a dramatic decline
after 9/11, bottoming out in 2003 at only 24% of the 1999
numbers. Although post has seen F1 visa issuances rise from
47 in 2003 to 70 as of YTD 2005, the final tally for 2005
will be far lower than even half of the 1999 high. To the
extent that the total number of student visas issued has
recovered at all from 9/11, it is through J1 visas, which
have risen over 250% between 1999 and the present. The
burst in J1 visas is largely attributable to the birth of
several new exchange programs, including the PLUS and YES
programs as well as MEPI's Summer Institutes.

Reasons for the Decline and Prospects for the Future
--------------------------------------------- -------

4. Anecdotal evidence from Yemenis suggests several reasons
for the decline -- and for the failure of post to bring
numbers back up past the existing plateau. The primary
reason is that Yemenis, like many Arabs and Muslims today,
are very anxious about traveling to the United States. In
YES and PLUS interviews, and in briefing sessions with
departing International Visitors, candidates' apprehension
often is palpable. Horror stories about lengthy
interrogations at airports and about harassment of Muslims
and Arabs, whether or not true, abound and move swiftly
through the current of Yemeni society.

5. Several other reasons account for the continuing low
numbers. Post has experienced several disruptive closures
in the past three years as well as an occasional reduction
in NIV staffing, undoubtedly hampering post's NIV processing
capacity. Education in the United States is expensive,
moreover, and with the rise of American universities in the
Gulf (particularly in the UAE and Kuwait), many Yemenis find
that they can have their cake and eat it too -- obtain a
prestigious degree without having to travel to the United
States. Moreover, regardless of whether the odds of
obtaining a visa are lower in the post-9/11 world (they are
not, for qualified candidates), the process is perceived as
more drawn-out and complex. This perception, moreover,
largely accords with reality - additional, post-9/11
clearances can take weeks to complete.

6. The available low-cost university education in countries
such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and India has become
increasingly attractive for Yemenis exploring their higher
education options. This is true both for self-funded
individuals and for the direction of scholarship money from
the ROYG. Dr. Ali Al-Shour, Deputy Minister of Higher
Education, candidly acknowledged that the ROYG will
increasingly direct its scholarship funds toward South and
East Asia, given the low cost. One departing International
Visitor noted that the association of Yemeni students in
India is over four hundred strong.

7. Notwithstanding the previous, the prestige of an American
university degree remains unparalleled. Post has seen
robust application figures for the Fulbright Master's Degree
program (80 applicants in the most recent cycle), and
American university graduates generally have their pick of
professional options upon their return. A very abridged
list of senior Yemeni officials with American academic
training (all of whom, moreover, are considered among the
more favorably-inclined toward the United States) includes
former Prime Minister and current head of the Shura Council
Abdulaziz Abdulghani, former Prime Minister and current head
of the ruling GPC Party and advisor to President Saleh
Abdulkarim Al-Iryani, Minister of Information Hussein Al-
Awadi, Minister of Human Rights Amat Al-Alim Al-Soswa, Vice
President of Sana'a University Ahmed Al-Kibsi, and Yemen
Observer Publisher and Deputy Press Secretary to the
President Faris Al-Sanabani. All of these individuals
regularly cite their American academic training as part of
the basis for their eventual leadership positions, and in
many cases are the most vocal proponents themselves of
United States university experience for Yemenis. Al-Kibsi,
for example, serves on the board of the Fulbright alumni
association and regularly and eagerly participates in the
Fulbright interview process.

8. At present, most Yemenis studying at American
universities are self-funded, and therefore represent an
elite stratum of society. A handful of ROYG scholarship
students continue to travel to the United States for
university education, mostly the children of high-ranking
officials with close contacts to the Presidency. [Note:
Independent weekly Al-Wasat published an expose on August 11
on the use of Ministry of Oil scholarships to support the
education in the United States and elsewhere of the children
of high government officials. Immediately after publication
of this report, Al-Wasat editor-in-chief Jamal Amer was
abducted, threatened, and assaulted. End note.] And, of
course, the creation of new exchange programs has allowed
post partially to make up the difference in numbers. The
YES and PLUS programs, as well as the previously-existing
International Visitor program and Fulbright and Humphrey
fellowships, now account for a far higher proportion of
total student visas than before.

Conclusions
-----------

9. Post cannot overstate the value of Yemeni students
studying in the United States. Students and exchange
program participants return not only with increased skills,
but also with a visibly changed impression of the United
States. Responses from several recently returned
International Visitors support this conclusion. Member of
Parliament Shawqi Shamsan, who participated in a summer 2005
IV program, returned to Yemen energized and full of ideas
about improving critical thinking skills in Yemeni schools.
Nabil Al-Sofi, a prominent Islah-affiliated journalist and
editor-in-chief of NewsYemen.Net, returned from his IV
program and promptly published several articles praising the
legal regime and framework of the United States. And Heba
Hassan, a Taiz University student leader and intern with the
Human Rights Information and Training Center, singled out in
particular a visit to a synagogue during her fall 2005 IV
program as an experience that helped her appreciate the
religious diversity of the United States. Post places
strongly emphasizes American academic exchange in its public
diplomacy programming, and works together with the
EducationUSA centers in Yemen to promote student exchange.
However, the factors pulling Yemenis away from study in the
United States are difficult to overcome. Post strongly
recommends an increase in exchange program funding so that
this critical pipeline for mutual understanding can be
widened.

KRAJESKI

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