Cablegate: Sri Lanka: Polling Peaceful; Tiger Intimidation

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001971

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: POLLING PEACEFUL; TIGER INTIMIDATION
KEEPS NUMBERS DOWN IN NORTH AND EAST

REF: COLOMBO 1965

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) As of mid-day on November 17, voting in the
presidential election was proceeding peacefully in the
central and southern parts of the country. Virtually no
voters had crossed from territory controlled by the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the north and east
to cast their ballots, however, and turn-out among voters in
Government-controlled areas bordering Tiger territory was
reportedly sparse as well. In the turbulent eastern district
of Batticaloa suspected LTTE cadres had thrown grenades at
empty polling stations the night of November 16, but no
injuries were reported. Secretary of Public Security, Law
and Order Tilak Ranaviraja told the Ambassador after polls
closed at 4:00 p.m. local time that there would be no curfew
tonight. The low-to-no turnout reported among Tamil voters
in the north and east is expected will hurt severely the
prospects of opposition United National Party (UNP) candidate
Ranil Wickremesinghe. End summary.

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ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FRONTS
---------------------------------------

2. (SBU) On November 17, informal Embassy election
monitoring teams deployed in various districts in western,
central and southern regions of the country reported that
polling in the presidential election appeared to be
proceeding in a largely peaceful manner. Embassy teams
reported no evidence of illegal campaigning/canvassing in the
vicinity of polling stations in these areas, although one
team in the southeastern district of Moneragala was told by
police of reports that some upcountry or "hill" Tamil voters
had been assaulted by pro-Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)
"thugs." In the central district of Matale, on the other
hand, long lines of voters, some of them with small children
in tow, began queuing early in the morning to cast their
ballot. Turnout was also reportedly strong in Colombo and
its environs. Local election monitors at some polling
stations in the north-central district of Anuradhapura
reported almost an 80 percent turnout rate, while our Embassy
team in the southern district of Galle reported a 75 percent
turnout rate. A seasoned political organizer in the
battleground southwestern district of Kalutara, where voting
lines were similarly long, told our team there that this
election was the most closely contested race he had
participated in in nearly two decades. We have received no
reports of a curfew being imposed, Secretary of Public
Security, Law and Order Tilak Ranaviraja told the Ambassador
after polls closed at 4:00 p.m. local time that there would
be no curfew tonight.

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NO-SHOWS IN THE NORTH
----------------------

3. (SBU) As feared (Reftel), the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE)-sponsored day of mourning reduced turnout among
voters in LTTE-controlled areas to a mere dribble, and
depressed voting levels among Tamils in government-controlled
territory bordering these areas as well. After the polls had
been open for two hours at the checkpoint at Omanthai in the
northern district of Vavuniya, not a single person had
crossed over to vote, International Committee for the Red
Cross (ICRC) personnel who staff the "no-man's land" between
the two territories told our Embassy monitoring team
(7,000-10,000 individuals make the crossing for various
purposes on an average day). Our team reported that
approximately 20 buses provided by the government to ferry
voters to cluster polling stations were sitting idle, while
scores of election officials and monitors were milling about,
waiting for something to do. When our team returned to the
checkpoint at 2:00 p.m. local time, local poll monitors
reported that only 50 out of 128,000 registered voters had
showed up, most of whom are believed to have previously
resettled on the government-controlled side. At a polling
station midway between Mannar and Vavuniya no one from
LTTE-controlled territory had crossed over to vote as of
about 11:00 a.m., according to local poll monitors, but they
had heard of a bus with six voters crossing over to another
polling station elsewhere in Mannar. Turnout in
government-controlled territory in Mannar was also reportedly
light, with reports of voters complaining of difficulty in
obtaining transportation to the polling stations.

4. (SBU) Voters were similarly scarce in the northern
district of Jaffna. At one polling station visited by our
Embassy team there, a total of 10 voters had turned up as of
noon. Across the street from another polling station, our
team observed a sign in Tamil exhorting the local population
not to "compromise Eelam" by voting. Local businesses in
Jaffna town were largely shuttered on election day, in
observance of the day of "mourning." (In contrast, most
businesses in Mannar town were open, although vehicular
traffic was reportedly light.) Local police told our team in
Jaffna of reports of LTTE cadres visiting voters door-to-door
the previous evening, warning them not to vote. Local
election monitors complained that suspected LTTE cadres were
conducting surveillance of polling stations to intimidate
voters. If so, their campaign to discourage voting seemed to
be working. The head EU monitor in Jaffna estimated voter
turnout in the district at 6 percent--including from the
government-controlled areas. The Government Agent put it
even lower--at a mere 1.5 percent.

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IN THE EAST, MUSLIMS VOTE;
TAMILS GIVE IT A MISS
---------------------------

5. (SBU) The perennially turbulent eastern district of
Batticaloa saw several empty polling stations attacked by
grenades by suspected LTTE the night before elections.
Violence on the day of the election itself, however, was
limited (at least for Batticaloa); one bomb blast occurred
mid-morning at a vote counting center in Batticaloa town,
injuring one policeman. Turnout among Muslim voters was
good, although there were reports of fisticuffs between
supporters of rival politicians in at least one location, but
turnout among Tamil voters was reportedly only about 2
percent at mid-day, according to Deputy Inspector General
(DIG) of Police Rohan Abeywardena, and there were no reports
of voters crossing over from the LTTE-controlled area. Our
Embassy team in the ethnically diverse eastern district of
Trincomalee reported that turnout there was higher, including
among Tamil voters, with the overall rate estimated at about
60 percent by mid-day.

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COMMENT
---------

6. (SBU) We do not expect a winner to be announced until
about mid-day November 18 (assuming the Election Commissioner
does not call for re-polling in any area), and the outcome of
voting in the south and central region, according to everyone
we have talked to, remains too close to call. (Note:
According to constitutional lawyer Rohan Edirisinghe, the
apparent LTTE interference in certain areas in the north and
the east will not be enough for the Election Commissioner to
declare the polls invalid since his mandate does not cover
Tiger activities. End note.) Apart from the LTTE-mandated
boycott in the north and east, the comparative lack of
reports we have received so far of electoral
violence/fraud/intimidation/tampering could make this one of
freest and fairest elections seen in Sri Lanka in a long
time. As noted reftel, however, the low-to-no turnout from
LTTE-controlled territories will benefit Sri Lanka Freedom
Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse and severely hurt
the prospects of Ranil Wickremesinghe, the pro-peace process
opposition United National Party (UNP) candidate. A source
in Rajapakse's campaign contacted poloff just before polls
closed to report the SLFP'ers were feeling very "confident";
a UNP MP the Ambassador had talked with a few hours before
sounded more restrained--but not disconsolate.
LUNSTEAD

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