Cablegate: Nz Elections: The Numbers Behind the Numbers

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000728

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/EP, EAP/RSP, INR/EAP
NSC FOR VICTOR CAHR AND MICHAEL GREEN
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: NZ ELECTIONS: THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE NUMBERS

1. (SBU) New Zealand's September 17 election results remain
in limbo, as 10% of absentee ballots ("special votes") remain
to be counted and Labour and National vie for coalition
partners. But even though most pundits pick Labour as the
party most likely to form a Government, Labour has taken a
hit this election, as have center-left and most minor
parties. The Government has lost significant support across
the country to a reinvigorated National Party and the newly
formed Maori Party. The following are some facts that shed
light on what may be the longer-term implications of this
election. End summary.

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2. (U) Party Vote Performance at the Electorate Level
--------------------------------------------- --------

-- Labour won 40.74% of the overall party vote, versus 39.63%
for National. However, National led Labour in the party vote
recorded in the 62 general electorates, receiving 41.77%
(804,701 votes) to Labour's 39.87% (768,110 votes). Labour
only won the overall party vote because they picked up 64,315
party votes in the seven Maori electorates, versus National's
4,973.

-- Labour gained more party vote support from the Maori
electorates than did the Maori Party, at 64,315 and 31,657
votes, respectively.

-- New Zealand First garnered more party vote support in the
Maori electorates than did National, with 7,051 and 4,973
respectively.

-- While urban voters have historically leaned to the left,
center-right parties (National, New Zealand First, United
Future, ACT) collectively edged out center-left parties
(Labour, Greens, Maori Party, Progressives) in two of the
four major cities. In Auckland and Hamilton, support for the
center right was 51.3% and 55.7% respectively versus 48.9%
and 44.0% for the center-left.

-- The only city where center-left support increased was
Wellington, where center-left party vote increased from 55.1%
in 2002 to 55.7%. Center-left parties retained overall
support in Christchurch, but saw a slight decrease from 54.8%
to 53.4%.

-- Overall, the rural vote leaned to the center-right,
especially on the North Island, where center-right parties
commanded 59.2% of the party vote to the center-left's 40.4%.
On the South Island, the center-right nudged out the
center-left 50.9% to 48.5%.

-- With the exception of one Labour MP, the other party list
losses (eighteen in all) came from minor parties. (Labour
lost one list incumbent -- Lesley Soper, whose 45th rank
listing was insufficient to gain a seat.) New Zealand First
lost the most list seats at six, followed by ACT with five,
United Future with four, the Greens with two, and the
Progressives with one.

-- In fourteen of the 69 electorates, the electorate winner's
party did not win the party vote. Seven of these electorate
winners were from minor parties: Maori (4), Progressives
(1), ACT (1) and United Future (1). Labour had the largest
party vote in five of these seven electorates. National won
in more conservative-leaning Epsom and Oharui-Belmont.

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3. (SBU) General Observations on Electorate Performance
--------------------------------------------- ----------

-- Labour won 45 (or 65.2%) of electorate seats in 2002,
compared to just 31 (or 44.9%) this time.

-- Labour and National each won 31 electorate seats.
However, three of Labour's electorate seat wins came from the
Maori electorates, where National did not post a candidate.

-- National won by stronger majorities in its electorates,
posting an average majority of 7,160 versus 5,822 for Labour
(compared to 4,470 and 8,048 respectively in 2002).

-- Labour's margin of victory dropped in 29 of the 31
electorates that it won, losing 3,600 votes per electorate on
average. National gained in all 20 of the electorates it
retained from 2002, gaining 5,100 votes on average.

-- Of the 69 electorates, thirteen were won by majorities of
less than 2,000 votes: eight of these were won by Labour vice
four by National and one by the Maori Party. Of electorates
decided by 1,000 or fewer votes, three were Labour wins and
one National. In 2002, only six electorates were decided by
less than 2,000 votes and two by less than 1,000 votes.

-- National reclaimed from Labour nine electorates that have
historically voted National or have a tendency to swing.
National's tenth electorate gain, Napier, is a notable
exception. Incumbent Russell Fairbrother lost this Labour
stronghold by 3,578 votes after winning in 2002 by 4,157.
Labour had held the Napier electorate for over 50 years.

-- Of those who retained their electorate seats, 30
incumbents saw their margin of victories reduced from the
2002 election, all but one of those were Labour seats. Many
of the close races involved Ministers, including Damien
O'Conner, Ruth Dyson and Mark Burton, or up-and-coming
figures such as party whip Darren Hughes. Trade Minister Jim
Sutton lost his Aoraki seat by 6,616 votes to National's Jo
Goodhew. Harry Duynhoven, Associate Minister of Energy and
Transport, saw his margin of victory trimmed by more than
10,000 votes to 4,900. Labour up-and-comer Steve Chadwick
also saw a significant loss in support, losing 7,200 votes to
win by only 532.

-- Of those who retained their electorate seats, 23
incumbents saw their margin of victories increased since the
2002 election; 20 increases were in National seats, two in
Labour and one was Progressive Jim Anderton's seat of Wigram.
National's biggest gainer was John Key, who increased his
victory by more than 10,000 votes to 11,838. Other big
National winners were Judith Collins (gaining 8,563 to 11,690
in Clevedon), Allan Peachy (7,490 to 8,697 in Tamaki) and
Tony Ryall (gaining to 7,020 to 12,617 in Bay of Plenty).
Progressive Jim Anderton increased his margin of victory from
3,176 to 8,056. Of Labour's 31 electorate incumbents, only
Marion Hobbs and Lynne Pillay saw their votes increased this
election. Lynne Pillay's was the larger gain, by just 1,829
votes.

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4. (U) Swings in Electorate Voting
----------------------------------

-- Of the 69 electorates, sixteen changed hands to other
parties this election. Labour lost fourteen of these,
including eleven losses by incumbents; however ten of these
eleven incumbents (including the three ministers Jim Sutton,
Rick Barker, and Dover Samuels) will return to Parliament
because of a high list ranking.

-- The fourteen electorates lost by Labour include ten
general electorates lost to National and four Maori
electorates lost to the Maori Party.

-- National lost one electorate to the ACT Party, but gained
one electorate from New Zealand First, netting a total gain
of ten electorates. Both the National and New Zealand First
incumbents returned to Parliament due to a high list ranking.

-- Though sixteen electorates changed hands, only one member
who lost will not be returning to Parliament: John Tamihere
of the Labour Party.
Burnett

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