Cablegate: Israel Media Reaction

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TEL AVIV 004770

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM
NSC FOR NEA STAFF

JERUSALEM ALSO FOR ICD
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL
PARIS ALSO FOR POL
ROME FOR MFO
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: IS KMDR MEDIA REACTION REPORT
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION

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SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT:
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1. Gaza Disengagement

2. Saudi Arabia

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Key stories in the media:
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All major media reported that the settler leadership
accepted a late-night IDF and police compromise on
their mass anti-disengagement protest planned for
today. The settlers agreed to hold a "short" rally in
Sderot between 11:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. EDT and to move
on to the Negev city of Ofakim for the night.

Yediot and Israel Radio reported that the joint Israeli-
Palestinian military coordination commission, which
convened at the Erez Crossing on Monday, decided that
the IDF will start transferring in an orderly fashion
evacuated settlements to the PA even before all Gaza
Strip settlements are evacuated.

Leading media reported that Israel and Egypt have
reached an in-principle agreement, according to which
750 Egyptian border policemen will be stationed along
the Philadelphi route. Ha'aretz says that Egypt has
explicitly pledged to prevent smuggling from its side
and that the Egyptian force, whose equipment will only
include light weapons and APCs, will not be able to
bring tanks or anti-tank missiles into the Sinai.
Ha'aretz reported that the bilateral security-military
commission will meet next week to finalize the details
of the agreement. The media quoted Yuval Steinitz, the
chairman of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee, as saying that this "pitiful" agreement
harms the great achievement of the Sinai's
demilitarization.

Jerusalem Post reported that the PA plans to launch a
mass public awareness campaign within a few days to
promote Israel's evacuation of the Gaza Strip
settlements later this month.

Ha'aretz cited the growing belief of the Israeli
defense establishment that the stability of Syrian
President Bashar Assad's regime will be at risk during
the coming year. The newspaper quoted a senior Israeli
defense official as saying that Assad's mistakes -- the
infiltration of terrorists from Syria into Iraq despite
U.S. warnings; the continuation of Syrian intelligence
activity in Lebanon, despite Syria's assurances; the
continuation of the activity of the headquarters of
Palestinian terrorist groups in Damascus; and Syria's
ongoing assistance to Hizbullah -- could cost him his
rule.
All media reported that Crown Prince Abdullah became
King of Saudi Arabia on Monday, succeeding his late
brother Fahd. Jerusalem Post cited academic and
diplomatic assessments in Jerusalem, according to which
the developments in Saudi Arabia are unlikely to have
any immediate impact on that country's relations with
Israel.
Ha'aretz's web site reported that Iran's president
elect, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said this week he will
continue to support Hizbullah's struggle against the
"enemies of Islam." He reportedly made the comment
after meeting with Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan
Nasrallah in Tehran on Monday.

Israel Radio reported that Kfir Levy, a Jewish driver
from Ramat Gan, and two Israeli Arabs have been
arraigned under suspicion of having abetted the Netanya
suicide bomber on July 12. Yediot quoted Shin Bet head
Yuval Diskin as saying on Monday that the terrorist
cell that planned to assassinate Shas mentor Rabbi
Ovadia Yosef was captured last week. Ha'aretz cited
statistics released Monday by the Shin Bet: 21 Israelis
were killed and 238 others were wounded during the
period of quiet declared by the PA and the terrorist
organizations.

Jerusalem Post reported that Fatah leaders and
activists have decided to establish a Palestinian
"popular army" to help the PA enforce law and order in
the Gaza Strip after Israel evacuates the area. The
newspaper quoted sources in the Gaza Strip as saying
that the decision to establish that body was taken by
Tunis-based hard-line PLO official Farouk Kaddoumi.
Jerusalem Post quoted PA officials in Ramallah who
expressed concern over the decision, saying there was
no need for "another militia" and that the Palestinian
security forces are capable of taking control over the
areas that will be evacuated by Israel.

All media reported that on Monday, "by-passing" the
U.S. Senate, President Bush appointed John Bolton U.S.
representative to the UN. The media remind that Bolton
is controversial and that the U.S. Jewish leaders
appreciate him, especially thanks to his role in
revoking the 1975 UN General Assembly resolution
equating Zionism with racism.

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1. Gaza Disengagement:
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Summary:
--------

Chief Economic Editor and senior columnist Sever
Plotker wrote in mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot
Aharonot: "Sharon is beginning with disengaging from
Gaza.... After it, in my opinion, will come the real
thing: larger withdrawals and evacuations from Judea
and Samaria [i.e. the West Bank]."

Leading industrialist Stef Wertheimer wrote in popular,
pluralist Maariv: "I am in favor of Sharon now, because
Sharon is now doing the possible and right move."

The Director of the Interdisciplinary Center's Global
Research in International Affairs Center, columnist
Barry Rubin, wrote in conservative, independent
Jerusalem Post: "There will be no big response [to the
disengagement] in the region and the withdrawal will
have little effect on Arab states' policies."

Ultra-Orthodox Yated Ne'eman editorialized: " The Prime
Minister can 'flex his muscles' when facing the
'orange' settlers, but he knows well that he must
submit to every American dictate."

Commentator Marina Rozenblit wrote in conservative
Russian-language daily Vesty: "An undercover dialog
conducted between Prime Minister Sharon's closest
supporters and religious leaders of the opposition [to
disengagement] is additional evidence that ... [the
latter] are actually almost reconciled with the
inevitability of [disengagement]."

Block Quotes:
-------------

I. "After the 8,000 Will Come the 80,000"

Chief Economic Editor and senior columnist Sever
Plotker wrote in mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot
Aharonot (August 2): "During his visit to France,
Sharon said: 'Had a million Jews settled in the
territories, Israel could have pursued a different
policy.' By so saying Sharon admitted ... that the
settlement movement stands facing its failure. True,
some 250,000 Jews live beyond the Green Line, but
150,000 of them live in what is referred to as the
"major settlement blocs," blocs of Jewish population
that either abut or nearly abut the 1967 borders. That
is where Israel ends.... When faced with the failure of
the settlement enterprise, what is left for Sharon --
its prophet and commander -- to do? Precisely what he
is doing now: to minimize the damage, to pick up the
pieces, to withdraw and to stabilize new borders. He
is beginning with disengaging from Gaza, but Gaza is
just the first installment, a mere brigade exercise,
and a dress rehearsal. After it, in my opinion, will
come the real thing: larger withdrawals and evacuations
from Judea and Samaria. Just as Sharon did not stop
after 40 kilometers in the Lebanon War, so too will he
not stop in the evacuation of settlements after Gush
Katif and Netzarim. Sharon will go for the 'big plan,'
and will seek to transfer at least 80,000 settlers who
live on the far side of the separation fence route to
the Israeli side.... A man like Sharon, a statesman who
thinks only on a huge scale, would never make do with
less than that."

II. "For Sharon Now"

Leading industrialist Stef Wertheimer wrote in popular,
pluralist Maariv (August 2): "I am in favor of Sharon
now, because Sharon is now doing the possible and right
move... It is no longer possible to determine the
destiny of another nation, because maintaining 7,000
Israelis in this Palestinian space is illogical....
When Israel arrived in Gush Katif 40 years ago, we were
a different Israel.... We increased the defense budget
at the expense of occupational education and
professionalism, and of the development of the Galilee
and Negev. This indeed was a defense necessity, but it
almost swallowed us.... Modern industry and exports
still are Israel's -- and the individual Israeli's --
best chance.... No longer exploiters and exploited -- a
new tomorrow."

III. "The Debate That Won't Happen"

The Director of the Interdisciplinary Center's Global
Research in International Affairs Center, columnist
Barry Rubin, wrote in conservative, independent
Jerusalem Post (August 2): "What about the [notion]
that the withdrawal proves Israel is weak and that it
shows terrorism is working? Certainly, there will be
those in Hamas and Hizbullah that will make such claims
but they will not be repeated too often by others.
Why? Most basically because the Arab states and Iran
do not need or want the image of a weak Israel. To be
useful, Israel must be seen as strong, as an imminent
threat. Only if this is so can the 'Zionist menace'
justify continued dictatorship, high military spending,
and a denial of internal freedom. Unless Israel is a
threat, the battle could be left to the Palestinians
and there is no ability to use the issue as a professed
grievance against the West.... If Israel is so weak,
radical groups can argue it is time for the Arab states
to go to war and devote all their resources to
defeating it. But if, for example, Syria made that
mistake it would be a disaster that might well prove
fatal to the regime there. Therefore, there will be no
big response in the region and the withdrawal will have
little effect on Arab states' policies. The limited
exception is Egypt, which will now have to manage its
border with the Gaza Strip."

IV. "Behind the Smiles"

Ultra-Orthodox Yated Ne'eman editorialized (August 2):
"During her meetings with Sharon, Mofaz, and Shalom,
Secretary of State Rice demonstrated an aggressive and

SIPDIS
patronizing attitude, as someone who is very aware of
Israel's full dependence on the United States. The
Prime Minister can 'flex his muscles' when facing the
'orange' settlers, but he knows well that he must
submit to every American dictate, whether he likes it
or not. In the final analysis, who eventually dictates
Israeli policy? These aren't Israel's senior defense
officials or economists, but the top U.S. officials,
who act out of domestic motives and considerations,
which often utterly contradict Israel's needs."

V. "Shooting a Movie "

Commentator Marina Rozenblit wrote in conservative,
Russian-language daily Vesty (August 2):"The opponents
of the settlers' evacuation from the northern West Bank
and Gaza have regarded the unilateral disengagement
plan as a propaganda trick and a performance ... to
achieve some political goals.... However, as the
implementation date of the disengagement plan is
getting closer, the argument that 'it will not happen
because it can never happen' ... becomes irrelevant....
An undercover dialog conducted between Prime Minister
Sharon's closest supporters and religious leaders of
the opposition [to disengagement] is additional
evidence that although the latter are continuing the
struggle ... to express their protests, they are
actually almost reconciled with the inevitability of
[disengagement]."

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2. Saudi Arabia:
-----------------

Summary:
--------

Senior Middle East affairs analyst Zvi Bar'el wrote in
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz: "Thus far, [King]
Abdullah has done relatively well in maneuvering around
these pressures, but with the line to the throne
becoming ever shorter, he may find himself facing a few
more rebels from within his own house."

Conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized:
"King Fahd's death may not mark the immediate end of an
era, but it is a reminder that that end is coming."

Block Quotes:
-------------

I. "A Sense of Saudi Stability"

Senior Middle East affairs analyst Zvi Bar'el wrote in
independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz (August 2): "The
sense the kingdom [of Saudi Arabia] has managed to
convey over the past decade, on the surface at least,
has been one of political stability.... But this
stability has to be reexamined against the backdrop of
the developments that have taken place in Saudi Arabia
over the past decade, and the past two years in
particular. The stability rests on two foundations --
recognition of the heir system among the seven
brothers, and the understanding that the ruling family
is bound to see to the welfare of the kingdom's
citizens. But these two foundations themselves rest on
an aging family ... whose members harbor a fair amount
of mistrust for one another... Tension also exists
between Interior Minister Prince Naif, who is also
waiting in line for the throne, and Abdullah on
questions pertaining primarily to reforms in the
country.... The pressures from home with regard to the
problem of poverty have joined the religious pressure
on the part of the Shi'ite minority, as well as anti-
reform pressure from radical circles. Thus far, [King]
Abdullah has done relatively well in maneuvering around
these pressures, but with the line to the throne
becoming ever shorter, he may find himself facing a few
more rebels from within his own house. When it comes
to foreign policy, it is clear to the Saudi royal
family that there is no cause for change."

II. "The Crumbling House of Saud"

Conservative, independent Jerusalem Post editorialized
(August 2): "King Fahd, who died yesterday, was the
Saudi leader who invited American troops into his
kingdom to repel Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait,
but he was also the world leader most responsible for
creating the monstrous world of militant Islamism....
In June at Cairo University, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice spoke not just of the need for truly
free elections in Egypt, but of the 'brave citizens
demanding accountable government' in Saudi Arabia....
This sort of frank talk is revolutionary in the U.S.-
Saudi relationship. Yet it is barely a taste of what
could be done. The Saudi human rights record, despite
the image of having created a 'modern state,' is not
dissimilar to that of the Taliban. The funding by
Saudi 'charities' of a global network of radical
Islamist indoctrination continues. So does
institutionalized anti-Semitism which, if it happened
in place like Austria, would long ago have triggered an
international boycott.... There is, in short, much to
be done. Though the U.S. has become blunter and bolder,
it is still an open question whether America considers
the House of Saud as the 'devil it knows' and therefore
preferable to most foreseeable alternatives.
Ultimately, however, the experience from the demise of
the oddly similar Soviet ideological gerontocracy
indicates that collapse will come, even if the West
foolishly tries to resist it. King Fahd's death may not
mark the immediate end of an era, but it is a reminder
that that end is coming."

KURTZER

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