Cablegate: Media Reaction Report - Middle East - Gaza Pullout

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005563

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT
IRAN
PARIS - THURSDAY, AUGUST 18, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT
IRAN

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION HEADLINES "GAZA: NO MORE SETTLERS"
AND DEVOTES A NUMBER OF REPORTS TO THE EXPULSION OF THE MORE
RECALCITRANT SETTLERS, EMPHASIZING THAT THE DISENGAGEMENT IS
MOVING MORE QUICKLY AND WITH LITTLE VIOLENCE. IN HIS EDITORIAL
PATRICK SABATIER BEGINS BY SAYING THAT "THE WAR OF THE
SETTLERS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE." SABATIER ENDS HIS COMMENTARY
WITH A NOTE ABOUT SHARON'S AND ABBAS'S WEAKENED DOMESTIC
POSITIONS AND THEIR NEED FOR HELP FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY. (SEE PART C) ALL OTHER FRONT PAGES ARE DEVOTED TO
THE COLOMBIAN CHARTER THAT CRASHED IN VENEZUELA WITH OVER 150
FRENCH TOURISTS RETURNING HOME TO MARTINIQUE. AIRLINE SAFETY
ARTICLES ABOUND, WITH LE FIGARO'S HEADLINE IMPLYING THE
AIRCRAFT WAS "A DUMP" POORLY MAINTAINED WITHOUT PROPERLY
TRAINED PERSONNEL. THE WEST CARIBBEAN AIRLINE IS FAULTED FOR
CUTTING CORNERS, LACKING FINANCIAL TRANSPARENCY AND
OVERWORKING ITS PERSONNEL. THE EDITORIAL SUGGESTS THE NEED FOR
A BLACK LIST OF DANGEROUS AIRLINES AS WELL AS A "BLUE SEAL" OF
APPROVAL REWARDING SAFE AIRLINES.

IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S ATTACKS IN BAGHDAD, LE FIGARO
COMMENTS: "THIS IS THE DEADLIEST ATTACK FOR AUGUST, AN ATTACK
WHICH THE TERRORISTS SEEM TO HAVE ORCHESTRATED WELL. THIS NEW
CYCLE OF VIOLENCE, WHICH COULD GET WORSE, IS TAKING PLACE IN A
LANDSCAPE OF POLITICAL TURMOIL, WITH THE VARIOUS RELIGIOUS
GROUPS UNABLE TO AGREE ON THE NEW IRAQ. IF NO AGREEMENT CAN BE
FOUND BY NEXT MONDAY, THE PARLIAMENT WILL HAVE TO BE DISSOLVED
AND NEW ELECTIONS ORGANIZED."

MOSCOW'S AMBIGUOUS POSITION TOWARDS IRAN IS ANALYZED IN LE
FIGARO (SEE PART C). LE FIGARO ALSO INTERVIEWS CONFLICT EXPERT
GERARD CHALIAND, AUTHOR OF "IRAQ: FROM ONE WAR TO ANOTHER."
CHALIAND DISCUSSES THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE, IRAQ,
IRAN'S ROLE IN THE REGION AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: "THE
U.S. WAR MACHINE IS NOT CAPABLE OF CONTAINING THE IRAQI
INSURRECTION. THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE LIKELY TROOP DRAW DOWN
IS MORE A DOMESTIC POLITICAL MANEUVER THAN A REFLECTION OF
CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND. BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST TWO
YEARS FOR THE IRAQI FORCES TO BE ABLE TO TAKE OVER FROM THE
U.S. MILITARY. IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST
INITIATIVE, SOME SUCCESSES OF AMERICAN DIPLOMACY CANNOT BE
DISMISSED, SUCH AS THE TOPPLING OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, HOLDING
ELECTIONS IN IRAQ, AND INDIRECTLY - SYRIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM
LEBANON. HOWEVER, IRAN REMAINS THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM IN THE
REGION; THE REGIME IS DETERMINED TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
AND ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD MAKING ITSELF A SORT OF NUCLEAR
SANCTUARY APPEARS UNSTOPPABLE. THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN
IS MEDIOCRE. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS THERE DEPEND TO A GREAT
EXTENT ON THE POPPY INDUSTRY AND THE PROMISED RECONSTRUCTION
IS LONG IN COMING. IN EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA, WHAT THE U.S.
WANTS IS A WEAK RUSSIA IN ORDER TO AVOID A RUSSIAN-CHINESE
ALLIANCE HOSTILE TO U.S. HEGEMONY. IN INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
WHAT MUST BE NOTED IS SCARCE NUMBER OF ATTACKS SINCE 9/11. THE
TRUTH IS THAT MANY ATTACKS HAVE BEEN THWARTED. IT IS NOT
INSENSITIVE TO SAY THAT OVERALL, TERRORISM REMAINS A MINOR
PHENOMENON, EXCEPT FOR ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT. IT IS THE
ROLE OF STATES TO FIND WAYS TO IMPROVE SECURITY AND FOR THE
MEDIA TO REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO THE PUBLIC'S ANXIETY."

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

MIDDLE EAST - GAZA PULLOUT

"WOUNDS"
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (08/19): "IN THE
END, THE WAR OF THE SETTLERS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. THE SETTLERS
ALLOWED THEMSELVES TO BE EVACUATED WITHOUT THE USE OF
VIOLENCE. AMONG THE PALESTINIANS REASON HAS ALSO PREVAILED.
BUT THE EVACUATION, ALBEIT PEACEFUL, WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
HEAL THE WOUNDS OF GAZA. THE ISRAELI ARMY REMAINS BEHIND IN
GAZA, WHICH IT HAS TURNED INTO AN OPEN-SKY OVERCROWDED PRISON
DEVOID OF HOPE. BUT THE PALESTINIANS ARE ALSO STAYING BEHIND.
IT IS UP TO THEM TO PROVE THEY ARE NOT THEIR OWN WORST
ENEMIES. IN ADDITION TO THE REIGNING CHAOS, THE POLITICAL
POWER STRUGGLE AMONG THE FATAH MEMBERS IS LEAVING AN OPENING
TO HAMAS EXTREMISTS WHO WANT TO IMPOSE THEMSELVES. IT WILL NOT
BE EASY FOR MAHMOUD ABBAS TO PROVE TO THE PALESTINIANS THAT
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND A DECENT ADMINISTRATION ARE MORE
EFFICIENT WEAPONS TO ESTABLISH A STATE THAN ROCKETS AND
TERRORIST ATTACKS. SHARON IS ALSO WEAKENED BY THE DOMESTIC
POLITICAL CRISIS HE HAS CREATED. BOTH MEN HAVE PROVEN THEY
COULD WORK TOGETHER IN THE GAZA PULLOUT, BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR BOTH TO STAY ON THE ROAD, IF NOT TO PEACE, AT
LEAST TO RELATIVE CALM. THEY NEED ALL THE HELP THEY CAN GET
FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD."

IRAN
"MOSCOW COMES TO TEHRAN'S RESCUE"
ALEXANDRE CEDRE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (08/19): "RENEWED
TENSION BETWEEN TEHRAN AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS
INDIRECTLY UNDERSCORED THE AMBIVALENT STANCE ADOPTED BY MOSCOW
ABOUT IRAN AND THE NUCLEAR ISSUE. TENSION BETWEEN MOSCOW AND
WASHINGTON RESURFACED AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN IRAN.
WHEN PUTIN CONGRATULATED THE NEW PRESIDENT AND OFFERED A NEW
NUCLEAR COOPERATION BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. IN SPITE OF
RUSSIA'S ASSURANCES THAT THE DEAL CONCERNS ONLY COMMERCIAL
NUCLEAR PROGRAMS, WESTERN OBSERVERS ARE WORRIED. ESPECIALLY
SINCE MOSCOW IS ALSO LOOKING AT NEW MILITARY CONTRACTS WITH
IRAN. IF THESE NEW MILITARY CONTRACTS ARE CONFIRMED, THEY WILL
NO DOUBT BE A SOURCE OF IRRITATION FOR WASHINGTON. THEY WILL
ALSO CAST A SHADOW ON THE KREMLIN'S POLICY IN THE FIGHT
AGAINST INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, BECAUSE IRAN'S WEAPONS,
WHETHER CONVENTIONAL OR UNCONVENTIONAL CAN ONE DAY FALL INTO
THE HANDS OF MUSLIM FANATICS." HOFMANN

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