Cablegate: Poll Shows a Majority of Costa Ricans Continue To

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 001875

SIPDIS

WHA/CEN
EB FOR WCRAFT, BLAMPRON
E FOR DEDWARDS
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR RVARGO, CPADILLA, AMALITO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD ECPS ECON PREL PGOV SOCI CS
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS A MAJORITY OF COSTA RICANS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CAFTA-DR

REF: (A) SAN JOSE 01073

(B) SAN JOSE 01787

1. Summary. A July 2005 CID/GALLUP poll contracted by the
daily newspaper "La Republica" and local television network
Repretel reveals a slightly decreasing majority of Costa
Ricans support the U.S.-Central American-Dominican Republic
Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and believe the agreement
will bring at least some benefits to the country. Despite
mounting pressure to move forward on this issue, President
Pacheco is maintaining a go-slow approach and has not yet
sent the agreement to the Legislative Assembly for
ratification, the only CAFTA-DR signatory country not to
have already done so. End Summary.

2. CID/Gallup conducted the poll by telephone and personal
interviews of 1,230 adults (over 18) from all areas of
Costa Rica between July 23 and 30, 2005. The margin of
error is stated to be plus or minus 2.8 percent with a 95
percent confidence level. The poll revealed that 67
percent of those polled had heard or read at least "a
little" about CAFTA-DR, an increase from 54 in May and 44
percent in February. The knowledge level of CAFTA-DR was
proportional to the education level achieved by the
respondent; 85 percent of those having at least one year of
University-level education had some knowledge of the
agreement, 71 percent of those completing their high school
studies, and 58 percent of those completing primary
education.

3. As compared to a similar CID/Gallup poll conducted in
May 2005 (Ref A), the most recent poll results showed that
those who responded that they were "somewhat" or "very
much" in favor of CAFTA-DR decreased from 61 to 56 percent.
Those who responded that they were "somewhat" or "very
much" opposed to the agreement fell from 32 to 30 percent.
Since the U.S. approved CAFTA-DR in late July 2005, this
issue has been discussed almost daily in the local media.
Looking closer into the breakdown of the responses to this
question, 21 percent of respondents said they were very
much in favor of CAFTA-DR (21 and 23 in May and February,
respectively), 35 percent somewhat in favor (40 and 33), 13
percent somewhat opposed (17 and 14), and 17 percent very
much opposed (15 and 16).

4. The poll also asked the following question to those who
said they knew at least "a little" of the agreement:
"Taking everything into account, how much do you think
Costa Rica will benefit from CAFTA-DR?" Responses revealed
that 54 percent think that Costa Rica will benefit "a lot"
or "some," compared to 53 percent in May 2005. Those who
think the country would benefit "little" or "not at all"
constituted 33 percent of the responses, down from 39
percent in May. Those having no response or opinion were
twelve percent of the respondents, up from nine in May.
Responses to a follow-up poll question in this area
revealed that 47 percent believe the benefits will be
realized in less than three years; 27 percent believe the
benefits will be realized between three and five years; and
21 percent responded more than five years.

5. Comment: Although not directly comparable because of
many factors such as the methods of conducting the surveys
and the questions asked, the latest UNIMER (Ref B) and
CID/Gallup polls show that a strong majority know or have
heard about CAFTA-DR. Both recent polls show that a
majority of respondents: (1) are in favor of CAFTA-DR, and
(2) believe that the agreement will bring benefits to the
country.
FRISBIE

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