Cablegate: Panama's Solidaridad-Liberal Nacional Merger Will

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

.UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 001183

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
VANCOUVER FOR CG ARREAGA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM POLITICS FOREIGN POLICY
SUBJECT: PANAMA'S SOLIDARIDAD-LIBERAL NACIONAL MERGER WILL
INCREASE OPPOSITION POTENCY

REF: A. PANAMA 350

B. PANAMA 629

Summary
--------
1. (SBU) Two of Panama's small opposition parties, the
National Liberal Party (PLN) and the Solidarity Party
(Partido Solidaridad), are reportedly close to agreement on
merging into a single political party. A merger between the
two would lend Solidaridad, the larger of the two parties, a
wider base of support, and would ensure the survival of the
PLN and its political principles. Merger negotiations are
taking place in a legislature whose largest opposition party,
the Panamenistas (formerly Arnulfistas), lost the presidency
to Martin Torrijos in a crippling electoral rout while
Torrijos's Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) won an
absolute majority of legislative seats. With an identity
crisis splitting the Panamenistas, Solidaridad, whose
presidential candidate Guillermo Endara took second behind
Torrijos with 31% of the popular vote, is looking toward a
merger to help gather its strength. End Summary.

State of Talks
--------------
2. (SBU) On April 27, PLN president Anibal Galindo told the
press that a merger with Solidaridad would be complete by the
end of the year. According to Solidaridad secretary general
Jorge Ricardo Fabrega, the two parties have discussed a
possible merger for several years, but now are close to a
final agreement. In an April 28 meeting with PolOffs,
Galindo said that he has been actively working on a merger
since becoming PLN president last May. He continued that the
two party platforms have no major conflicts. Each party must
hold a separate convention and vote on the merger, followed
by a joint convention to formalize the decision. Both
Solidaridad and PLN considered the MOLIRENA Party
(Nationalist Republican Liberal Movement) as a potential
partner in the merger, but dropped the idea due to
intra-MOLIRENA infighting. (Note: MOLIRENA, formerly a
small but significant voice of opposition, is now so small it
teeters on the brink of extinction. It currently holds three
seats in the legislature. If it loses any more seats,
Panamanian law requires it to disband. One former MOLIRENA
legislator, Marilyn Vallarino, ran and won on a Solidarity
ticket last May. End Note.)

3. (SBU) Both parties' leadership are using the press to
portray the merger in a proactive and positive light.
Galindo told La Prensa on April 6 that the two parties "have
an enormous responsibility to be a serious and responsible
opposition," and that they would continue discussing themes
of national interest together with Solidaridad and the
parties of the National Coordination of Opposition.

A View from the Inside
----------------------
4. (SBU) In a March 29 meeting with PolOff, Fabrega listed
difficulties facing the ruling PRD that he said a legislative
opposition could effectively exploit if it is strong and
focused. According to Fabrega, although the PRD is riddled
with internal disputes, it refuses to coordinate with other
parties due to its 41-seat absolute majority in the 78-seat
legislature. Fabrega noted three key PRD political problems:
the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S., the Supreme
Court controversy, and Social Security reform. Fabrega said
the domestic controversy over an FTA with the U.S. would be
compounded if Panama is unable to conclude the agreement at
the next meeting, and that such a failure would be
"politically bad" for Torrijos. (Note: Embassy assumes that
a final high-level bilateral FTA meeting will not be
scheduled if success is not assured in advance. End Note.)
Fabrega called Torrijos's February 2005 creation of a Justice
Commission to recommend changes to the Supreme Court a
do-nothing response (see Reftel B). He also said the PRD had
not engaged in genuine consultation with other parties on
Social Security (CSS) reforms.

5. (SBU) Solidaridad, with seven seats, is looking to
increase its presence in the legislature, but the PLN, with
three, is merely looking to survive. Galindo expressed
frustration at the inability of small parties to make any
political impact in the present legislature. Galindo
commiserated that the PLN did not field a presidential
candidate in the last elections despite having a clear plan
for governing, though Galindo ran as second vice-presidential
candidate on the then-incumbent Panamenista ticket. Panama's
system of electing representatives is also weighted against
smaller parties. Voting districts all have a set number of
Assembly seats and all but the last seat are determined by
popular vote. The last seat is then given, party-list style,
to the party with a plurality of the votes in the district.
It is possible, under this system, for a small party to win
more popular votes in a district and still lose a seat to
another party. This was the case for the PLN this year,
which also managed to win only six local elections throughout
the country. The PRD, however, picked up an additional 10-11
national seats based on this system.

Comment
-------
6. (SBU) Whether a merged Solidaridad-PLN will effectively
overtake the Panamenistas as the primary opposition party
remains to be seen. Solidaridad, sometimes referred to as
"PRD-light," has had legislator bleed-over from the PRD, but
as a center-to-right party, lacks the populist bent of the
PRD. Solidaridad, being a small party, must fight for every
vote, and rarely are its legislators elected in back-to-back
terms. However, the Panamenistas, with 16 Assembly seats,
have been conspicuous in their lack of organized opposition
to the PRD since elections in May 2004. Former president
Mireya Moscoso's step-down as Panamenista party president in
April has left potential replacements jockeying for position
(see Reftel A). The current vice-president, now acting
president, Marcos Ameglio is a party outsider and lacks
enthusiastic party support. The party must also rectify the
image problem it inherited from Moscoso and bounce back from
its crushing defeat at the polls. Its candidate, Jose Miguel
Aleman, was voted down last May on public perceptions of
rampant corruption. Solidaridad pulled 31% of the popular
vote largely due to the popularity of its candidate, former
president Guillermo Endara, who had broken with Moscoso and
the Panamenistas. Despite their derisory showing in 2004
(16% of the vote), the Panamenistas have a large traditional
base of support which is not likely to abandon them. Whether
the party will ever achieve mass appeal again or whether
Solidaridad-PLN can capture the mantle of chief opposition
party will become more clear in the coming months.

WATT

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