Cablegate: Polls On Eu Constitution: All Even with Less Than

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

111454Z May 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003208

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL, INR/EUC AND
EB
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: POLLS ON EU CONSTITUTION: ALL EVEN WITH LESS THAN
3 WEEKS TO GO

REF: A. (A) PARIS 3013 AND PREVIOUS

B. (B) PARIS 2085

SUMMARY
-------
1. (U) With less than three weeks to go before France's May
29 referendum on the EU Constitution, several recent public
opinion surveys put the race in a statistical dead heat. One
major poll shows an exact 50-50 split between 'yes' and 'no'
among those who say they have decided how they will vote.
Pollsters' estimates of the undecided vary between 30 and 20
percent of likely voters. Pollsters agree the electorate
remains highly volatile, and that, for the moment, the 'yes'
and 'no' are in unstable equilibrium with neither one gaining
significantly on the other. END SUMMARY.

PHASES OF THE REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN
---------------------------------
2. (U) Since March 4, when President Chirac announced the
May 29 date for the referendum, the referendum campaign has
gone through four phases. First, in a precipitous reversal
of opinion, a 60/40 'yes'/'no' split became a 48/52
'yes'/'no' split in less than two weeks (reftel B). Second,
from mid-March through most of April, the 'no' held the lead
among decided voters by as much as 55 percent 'no' to 45
percent 'yes'. Third, after that high point (so far) in the
third week of April, "the rising tide of 'no'" ebbed, with
'yes' regaining a slight lead over 'no' at the very end of
April. Fourth, by the end of the first week of May, 'yes and
'no' settled into their current, for all practical purposes,
50/50 equilibrium, with pollsters detecting a "wait and see"
attitude among many in the large number of undecided. Also,
pollsters are fond of pointing out that a significant portion
of those who vote -- some use 20 percent as a rule-of-thumb
-- don't make up their minds until the very day that they go
to the polls.

LATEST POLLS SHOW STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT
---------------------------------------
3. (U) In a survey published on May 9 by the IPSOS polling
organization, the French electorate is shown to be split
evenly right down the middle -- with 50 percent of decided
voters claiming they will vote 'yes' and 50 percent claiming
they will vote 'no.' The preceding IPSOS poll, published one
week earlier, showed a net advantage for the 'yes' camp by a
margin of 53 to 47 percent. Another poll, this one published
over the week-end of May 7 - 8 by TNS-SOFRES, revealed a
slight advantage for those favoring approval of the
constitution, with 52 percent of decided voters reporting
they will vote 'yes,' versus 48 percent reporting they will
vote 'no.' Also on May 9, the CSA polling organization
published a poll showing a slight 51 to 49 percent advantage
for the 'yes' camp; this is the third CSA poll in a row
reflecting a slight edge for the 'yes' camp. All three polls
indicate that a significant percentage of voters (20-25
percent) have yet to make up their minds, and might not do so
until the day of the referendum.

COMMENT: AGE, SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS AND DECISIVE ISSUES
--------------------------------------------- ----------
4. (SBU) Analysis of the poll results has identified trends
among different socio-economic and age groups and also
confirmed anecdotal evidence that voter response to a number
of emotive issues unrelated to the constitution itself will
be very important in shaping the results May 29.

The key strengths of 'yes':

-- older voters are overwhelmingly pro-Europe and turn out to
vote; these voters have just been reminded by 60th
anniversary commemorations of the end of WWII of the peace
that is the deciding issue for them in favoring continuation
of the European construction;

-- younger voters, also strongly pro-Europe, are most likely
to see Europe as an agent of positive change in their lives;

-- the argument that only through a strong and united Europe
can France effectively protect itself -- jobs, industries,
social model, etc. -- in a global economy dominated by the
"the U.S. and China;"

-- the argument that voting 'no' is unpatriotic, weakening
France's leadership role in a project -- European unification
-- that the French have long supported by a 2/3 majority
(according to decades of polling on the subject).

The key strengths of 'no':

-- the large majority of people of low and modest incomes are
very apprehensive about their economic prospects; their
instinct is to hold the line against change;
-- particularly among center-left voters, being for 'no' is a
"movement" -- a political commitment that brings solidarity
with others and engages political emotions;

-- 'no' is anti-establishment; popular dissatisfaction with
France's ruling elites of both left and right runs very high,
and voting 'no' vents anger and frustration that should not
be underestimated. END COMMENT.
WOLFF

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