Cablegate: Media Reaction Report - Syria-Lebanon

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001968

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA;
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA;
ROME/PA; BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SYRIA-LEBANON
ARAB SPRING - GREATER MIDDLE EAST
PARIS - THURSDAY, MARCH 24, 2005

(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

SYRIA-LEBANON
ARAB SPRING - GREATER MIDDLE EAST

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

THE BOLKEINSTEIN DIRECTIVE AND PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S APPEAL TO
THE PEOPLE OF FRANCE TO BACK THE EU CHARTER ARE TODAY'S MAJOR
FRONT PAGE AND EDITORIAL STORIES. CATHOLIC LA CROIX DEVOTES
ITS LEAD TO THE DECISION BY EUROPE'S BISHOPS TO BACK THE EU
CONSTITUTION. LA CROIX ALSO CARRIES A DECLARATION BY MOHAMED
BECHARI, SECRETARY OF EUROPE'S ISLAMIC CONFERENCE, CALLING FOR
EUROPE'S MUSLIM POPULATION TO VOTE IN FAVOR OF THE
CONSTITUTION.

THE LATEST BOMBING IN BEIRUT LEADS COMMENTATORS TO WARN
AGAINST A NEW CYCLE OF VIOLENCE AND RENEWED DISSENSION BETWEEN
LEBANON'S RELIGIOUS FACTIONS. IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE
POINT, COLUMNIST PIERRE BEYLAU ANALYZES FRANCE'S PAST STANCE
TOWARDS LEBANON, AND ITS PRESENT "LIMITED" ALIGNMENT WITH
WASHINGTON'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS HEZBOLLAH AND SYRIA. (SEE PART
C)

A REPORT IN LEFT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR
ANALYZES THE FEASIBILITY OF PRESIDENT BUSH'S "DEMOCRATIZATION
OF THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST." (SEE PART C)

LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE CARRIES AN INTERVIEW WITH PAUL
WOLFOWITZ ON HIS NOMINATION TO THE WORLD BANK. LEFT-OF-CENTER
LIBERATION DEVOTES A TWO-PAGE PROFILE OF PAUL WOLFOWITZ,
ANNOUNCED ON THE FRONT PAGE: "A HAWK AT THE WORLD BANK'S
DOOR." PASCAL RICHE CONTENDS THAT "WOLFOWITZ, THE WARMONGER,
WASHINGTON'S LEAD HAWK WHO IS ESSENTIALLY ONLY INTERESTED IN
KEEPING AMERICA'S POWER ON TOP, DOES NOT HAVE THE PROFILE FOR
THE JOB." IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT, WASHINGTON
CORRESPONDENT HELENE VISSIERE COMMENTS IN A TWO-PAGE REPORT ON
PAUL WOLFOWITZ: "LIKE RUMSFELD, WOLFOWITZ PROVED INCAPABLE OF
ANTICIPATING THE POST-WAR INSURRECTION AND OF PLANNING FOR
IRAQ'S RECONSTRUCTION. HOW WILL HE BE ABLE TO MANAGE AN
INSTITUTION THAT DISTRIBUTES 20 BILLION DOLLARS IN CREDITS A
YEAR, WHEN HE DID SUCH A POOR JOB OF ANTICIPATING THE
FINANCIAL AND HUMAN COST OF THE WAR IN IRAQ?"

A POLL CONDUCTED IN EUROPE ON EUROPE'S EXPANSION AND REPORTED
IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO INDICATES THAT IN FRANCE, 58
PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED FAVOR UKRAINE'S EU MEMBERSHIP, WHILE
ONLY 37 PERCENT FAVOR TURKEY.

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

SYRIA-LEBANON

"DAMASCUS RETAINS ABILITY TO DO HARM"
GEORGES MALBRUNOT IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/24):
"FORCED TO LEAVE ITS PRIVATE HUNTING GROUND, SYRIA RETAINS THE
ABILITY TO DO HARM. THE SYRIANS DO NOT NEED TO BE PHYSICALLY
PRESENT IN LEBANON. THEY CAN COUNT ON THE PRO-SYRIAN LEBANESE
WITHIN THE POLITICAL CLASS AND THE LEBANESE ARMY. FOR THE TIME
BEING HEZBOLLAH HAS RESISTED THE PROPONENTS OF LEBANON'S
DESTABILIZATION. BUT HOW LONG WILL IT BE ABLE TO OPPOSE ITS
SYRIAN AND IRANIAN BACKERS? AFTER THIS SECOND ATTACK AGAINST
THE CHRISTIAN OPPOSITION, CHANCES FOR REPRISAL EXIST,
ESPECIALLY IF GENERAL AOUN RETURNS TO BEIRUT. SINCE HARIRI'S
ASSASSINATION, LEBANON'S OLD DEMONS HAVE RETURNED. IN A
COUNTRY WHERE RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION IS STRONGER THAN
NATIONAL UNITY, THE FRENCH AND AMERICAN PROMOTERS OF
RESOLUTION 1559 MAY HAVE PROVED TO BE INCAUTIOUS. AS ONE
EXPERT PUT IT, `WE MAY BE PLAYING WITH FIRE HERE.'"

"A BELATED `DISCOVERY.'"
PIERRE BEYLAU IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT (03/24): "ONE
DAY, LO AND BEHOLD, CHIRAC DISCOVERED THAT THE SYRIAN ARMY WAS
OCCUPYING LEBANON. UNTIL RECENTLY EVERYONE SEEMED TO ACCEPT
LEBANON'S SYRIAN OCCUPATION, FOR FEAR OF A WAR. ONLY LAST YEAR
DID FRANCE BEGIN TO OPEN ITS EYES. EAGER TO NORMALIZE
RELATIONS WITH WASHINGTON, FRANCE BEGAN TO LEAD IN UN
RESOLUTION 1559. LEBANON THUS BECAME THE PRIVILEGED GROUNDS
FOR RECONCILIATION BETWEEN THE FRENCH AND THE AMERICANS. BUT
ONLY TO A POINT. BECAUSE PARIS, CONTRARY TO WASHINGTON,
BELIEVES IT IS DANGEROUS TO EXCLUDE HEZBOLLAH FROM LEBANON'S
POLITICAL ARENA. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, FRANCE HAS NO DESIRE TO
GET INVOLVED IN SYRIA'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS. IN OTHER WORDS, IT
DOES NOT WANT TO GET INVOLVED IN ENCOURAGING A CHANGE OF
REGIME IN DAMASCUS. THESE ARE TWO YELLOW LINES WHICH DELINEATE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRANCE AND WASHINGTON'S POSITIONS ON
THE LEBANESE QUESTION."

"A WELL-PLANNED BOMBING"
DOMINIQUE BROMBERGER ON GOVERNMENT-RUN FRANCE INTER RADIO
(03/24): "THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DECISIVE IN THE
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE PRO-SYRIAN MOVEMENT AND THE LEBANESE
OPPOSITION. THE SYRIANS WOULD BE DELIGHTED IF IT WERE PROVEN
THAT WITHOUT THEIR PRESENCE TO IMPOSE LAW AND ORDER, THE
LEBANESE ARE INCAPABLE OF LIVING IN PEACE. BESIDES THE COMING
ELECTIONS, ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IS
THE REPORT THAT KOFI ANNAN HAS REQUESTED ON THE ASSASSINATION
OF HARIRI. DEPENDING ON WHETHER DAMASCUS IS FINGERED OR NOT,
THE REPORT WILL PLAY AN INFLUENTIAL ROLE IN THE BALANCE OF
POWER. LEBANON'S AFFAIRS ARE BEING FOLLOWED VERY CAREFULLY IN
THE ARAB WORLD. A VICTORY OF DEMOCRACY HERE WOULD HAVE
CONSIDERABLE IMPACT IN OTHER NATIONS IN THE REGION."

ARAB SPRING - GREATER MIDDLE EAST

"TOMORROW, DEMOCRACY?"
RENE BACKMANN IN LEFT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR
(03/24): "THE AMERICAN INTERVENTION IN IRAQ HAS TURNED THAT
COUNTRY INTO A NEW POWDER-KEG OF ISLAMIC TERRORISM, WHILE ALSO
TRIGGERING A MOVEMENT FOR REFORMS AND DEMOCRATIC ASPIRATION
FROM EGYPT TO SAUDI ARABIA AND LEBANON. BUT HOW FAR CAN THIS
ARAB SPRING GO..? IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION DOING WHAT IT
NEEDS TO DO TO BE CREDIBLE IN ARAB COUNTRIES, WHERE THE
POPULATION PERCEIVES WASHINGTON'S POLICIES AS IMPERIALISTIC?
AMERICA'S DESIGNS FOR DEMOCRACY IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST ARE
ALSO ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTIES FROM EUROPE, AND ESSENTIALLY
FROM FRANCE, WITH THE WARNING THAT IN THE ARAB WORLD,
WEAKENING THE REGIMES COULD GENERATE CHAOS, AS WAS THE CASE
WITH IRAQ. IS DEMOCRATIZATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST REALISTIC, IF
THE U.S. AND ITS EUROPEAN PARTNERS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIVERGING
VIEWS ON THE GOALS AS WELL AS THE MEANS?" LEACH

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