Cablegate: Only 600 of 4500 Commercial Farmers Still Standing

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002700

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR ECON PHUM PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ONLY 600 OF 4500 COMMERCIAL FARMERS STILL STANDING

REF: HARARE 2561

1. Summary. Given the chaotic nature of President Mugabe's
fast-track land reform, it is no easy task to quantify this
program. Of 4,500 white-owned commercial farms, our best
guess is that 3,900 have closed down and 4,275 have been
slated for resettlement. Despite GOZ claims that the land
resettlement process is complete, farmers continue to receive
new Section 8 acquisition notices, and others continue to
come under eviction pressure from "third party" forces (e.g.,
war veteran, youth militia, or settler groups). Observers
estimate that between 300,000 and 500,000 farm workers have
lost their homes and jobs, despite press statements from
Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo that "there are no
displaced farm workers in Zimbabwe" -- which statement
contradicts GOZ letters to the UN. The GOZ claims it has
resettled 350,000 black farmers on the subdivided commercial
farms, but based on anecdotal evidence and ad-hoc
observation, we estimate that fewer than 100,000 have taken
up residence and fewer than 40,000 are actually farming. As
noted reftel, we believe it is difficult to view fast-track
land reform as anything but a failure at this juncture. The
controversial program will devastate tobacco production,
formerly Zimbabwe's largest foreign exchange earner and top
private sector employer. End summary.

2. Despite the GOZ's claims that land resettlement is a fait
accompli, there is little indication that the process has
reached equilibrium. Some commercial farmers have been
granted temporary relief through the courts based on
procedural defects in their acquisition orders, although most
of these expect to receive new acquisition orders at any
moment. Other commercial farmers -- 111 total, and at least
twenty in the Karoi area according to one contact -- have
received new Section 8 acquisition orders since November 1.

Actual Occupancy Difficult to Substantiate
------------------------------------------

3. Due to the fluid situation regarding validity of
acquisition notices, geographical intensity of settler / war
veteran activity, and individual resistance on the part of
evicted farmers, there is no consensus as to how many
commercial farmers remain on their property. There is
similar lack of consensus on how many "new farmers" have been
settled. Most observers concur that at least 95% of
commercial farms (approximately 4,275 of 4,500) have received
acquisition notices, although some farmers remain on their
land and continue to resist acquisition through the courts
with varying degrees of success. The closest estimate at
this point is that approximately 600 commercial farmers are
still attempting to produce something on their land, although
more than half of those continue to struggle against actual
seizure of their property. The GOZ continues to claim that
300,000 indigenous farmers have been resettled under the A1
small-holder model, and that 50,000 indigenous farmer have
been resettled under the A2, or "new" commercial farmer,
model. The true levels of resettlement lie far below these
optimistic claims.

4. Occupation of resettled plots cannot be estimated with
any certainty, but visits by Post personnel to affected areas
indicate that productive cultivation of acquired farms is the
exception rather than the rule. Even ZANU-PF supported news
reports concede that convincing A2 "new farmers" to take up
their plots has been difficult. It is less clear what
proportions of A1 farmers are on the land, but the GOZ figure
of 300,000 is almost certainly an exaggeration. Moreover,
based on our personal observations, we believe that a
substantial portion of these small-scale farmers have not
planted a significant crop on resettled land. The pattern
has been that plots containing buildings such as a homestead
or barns are occupied quickly, while the majority of plots
without such amenities remain abandoned. The impact that
resettlement is having on individual agricultural sectors is
slightly easier to quantify.

Commercial Farmers' Union Statistics
------------------------------------

5. The Commercial Farmers' Union (CFU), battered by GOZ
disdain and rocked by internal conflict, is desperately
attempting to maintain some degree of relevance in the
current chaotic situation. Many CFU farmers, once they have
been evicted from their property, no longer maintain ties
with or forward information regarding their situations to the
CFU leadership. However, the CFU remains one of the few
organizations attempting to quantify the situation of
commercial farmers as a whole. The CFU claims that 90% of
white commercial farmers have been formally dispossessed of
their properties since the beginning of the land reforms in
2000. At this point, the organization estimates that 600
commercial farmers retain some physical control of their
property, although many remain under threat of acquisition.

Commercial Tobacco Farmers Drop from 1,580 to 330
--------------------------------------------- ----

6. Tobacco, long an integral part of Zimbabwe's economy
which accounted for up to a third of foreign exchange,
deserves special mention. Zimbabwe produced its maximum
output of 220 million kilograms of tobacco in 2000. During
this last growing season, approximately 1,580 commercial
farmers produced 148 million kgs of high-grade tobacco, while
approximately 12,000 small-scale indigenous farmers produced
12 million kgs -- a reduction of 60 million kgs. Owing to
experience and economies of scale, commercial growers can
produce between 2,500 and 3,000 kgs per hectare, while
small-scale growers generally produce around 1,000 kgs per
hectare.

7. The Zimbabwe Tobacco Association (ZTA), an apolitical
industry group whose survival depends on the success of
small-scale growers, keeps fairly close estimates of tobacco
grower activity. ZTA states that approximately 330
large-scale commercial growers are attempting to produce a
crop during the next season. Of those commercial growers,
the ZTA believes that at least half are facing continued GOZ
attempts to acquire their land. The ZTA estimates that next
year's tobacco crop could result in 70 million kgs, if
commercial growers can maintain control of their land through
the harvest and curing process. Other observers are
predicting a maximum crop size of 20 to 30 million kgs.
Although seed sales indicate that next season's crop could
theoretically equal last year's yield, many factors suggest
that this -- along with the GOZ's euphoric predictions of a
2003 crop in excess of 300 million kgs -- is merely wishful
thinking.

Comment
-------

8. According to the ZTA, tobacco is a chemical-intensive
crop, requiring expensive insecticides and fertilizers
throughout the growing period, and the "new" small-scale
farmers (who, without title to their land, have little
collateral for bank loans) have been given scant GOZ
assistance. Additionally, many existing small-scale farmers
previously received significant assistance from their
commercial farmer neighbors in the form of tobacco seedlings,
chemicals, and assistance with tillage. With the
dispossession of the vast majority of the commercial farmers,
much of this assistance has disappeared. Finally, production
of the most valuable product -- flue-cured tobacco -- is a
labor-intensive skill acquired through years of experience.
Zimbabwean commercial farmers have been developing their
skills over generations, and assuming that any farmer with a
plot of land and a hoe can equal their quality or quantity of
production is naive at best. While some tobacco will be
produced, Zimbabwe's days as the biggest producer of
flue-cured tobacco -- as well as the days when tobacco
earned 30% of Zimbabwe's forex -- are finished.

9. Commercial farming has become a ghost industry, with
operators few and far between, while hundreds of thousands of
hectares of formerly productive fields lie barren and wasted
under the husbandry of the "new farmers." Some small-scale,
indigenous and new commercial farmers will succeed, and some
may even be profitable. However, when weighed against the
phenomenally productive and lucrative commercial farming
sector of several years ago, even the GOZ will be
hard-pressed to present these isolated successes as a victory.
SULLIVAN

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