Cablegate: Afghanistan's Political Future (Corrected Copy)

P 110117Z OCT 01
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY TASHKENT PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DOHA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ALMATY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BISHKEK PRIORITY
INFO USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 176819

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/11
TAGS: PREL AF PK
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE (CORRECTED COPY)

REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL), (B)ISLAMABAD 5601

(U) CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTINA B. ROCCA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY
FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B AND D).

(U) THIS IS A CORRECTED COPY OF CABLE PREVIOUSLY SENT WITH
SAME SUBJECT. (MRN NOT AVAILABLE)

1. (C) ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN
DISCUSSIONS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON
THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. NOTING SPECIFICALLY
THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, ACTION ADDRESSEES
SHOULD REQUEST HOST COUNTRY INPUT. EMBASSY ISLAMABAD HAS
MADE A SIMILAR APPROACH (REF A) TO THE GOP BUT MAY USE
THESE EXPANDED POINTS TO AMPLIFY ITS DISCUSSION.

2. (C) BACKGROUND:

-- AFGHANISTAN'S STABILITY IS PREDICATED UPON HAVING A
GOVERNMENT WITHOUT TERRORIST TIES, FRIENDLY TO ITS
NEIGHBORS, ABLE TO GOVERN, AND ENGAGED IN OVERALL REGIONAL
COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC REHABILITATION. A FUTURE
GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY EMERGE FROM THE SUPREME COUNCIL
UNDER FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH'S SYMBOLIC LEADERSHIP WITH
NORTHERN ALLIANCE, MAJOR ETHNIC, PARTICULARLY PASHTUN, AND
SECTARIAN GROUPS. AFGHANISTAN WILL NEED INTERNATIONAL
ASSISTANCE WITH A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD PROVIDE
STABILITY FOR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL RECOVERY,
INCLUDING HOLDING KABUL AND OTHER URBAN AREAS, AND PROTECT
THE GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WORKERS FROM
THOSE THAT SEEK TO CONTINUE THE CONFLICT.

-- AFGHANS WILL NEED HELP TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT IN
COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN CLOSE
DOWN TERRORISTS' OPERATIONS, ADHERES TO INTERNATIONAL
NORMS AND PRACTICES, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS AND ISSUES
CONCERNING WOMEN, AND FACILITATES SAFE DELIVERY OF
HUMANITARIAN AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. CONSULTATIONS WITH
COALITION PARTNERS, PARTICULARLY ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AND
REGIONAL STATES, WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING AND
IMPLEMENTING A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD BE WELCOMED
BY THE SUPREME COUNCIL AND A FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT.

3. (C) TALKING POINTS:

-- WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE BELIEVE IT IMPERATIVE TO
DISCUSS THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. WE
ANTICIPATE MANY FUTURE, DETAILED EXCHANGES
OF VIEWS ON THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC AS EVENTS PROCEED.

-- WE WOULD LIKE TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE DO NOT
INTEND TO, NOR DO WE BELIEVE WE COULD, DETERMINE THIS
FUTURE.

-- AS YOU KNOW WE ARE PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO COMBAT
THE PRESENT CRISIS. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT HOW THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD WORK TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY
IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN.

-- USG WELCOMES APPOINTMENT OF AMBASSADOR LAKHDAR BRAHIMI
AS SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR AFGHANISTAN AND
LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM. WE EXPECT TO ENGAGE IN
DISCUSSIONS WITH HIM IN THE NEAR FUTURE REGARDING HIS
ROLE. WE ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO BE IN CONTACT WITH HIM AS
WELL.

-- WE BELIEVE YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS A KEY ROLE TO PLAY IN
SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME INCREASED
DIALOGUE WITH THE FORMER KING AND BROADENED CONTACTS WITH
AFGHANS TO ENCOURAGE ANTI-TALIBAN UNITY.

-- WE HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING AT A
HIGH LEVEL AND EXPECT TO BE ENGAGING IN SIMILAR
DISCUSSIONS WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER
INDEPENDENT AFGHANS, PARTICULARLY PASHTUNS, INSIDE AND
OUTSIDE AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME THE FORMATION OF A
SUPREME COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL UNITY OF AFGHANISTAN
COMBINING THE ROME GROUP WITH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND
OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS.

-- WE ARE LOOKING AT PROVIDING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE
ROME GROUP TO DEFRAY IMMEDIATE ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES.

-- ULTIMATELY, IT IS UP TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN TO
DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THAT
THERE ARE CERTAIN GENERALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL
PRINCIPLES WHICH ANY GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO ADHERE TO. IT
WILL NEED TO BE BROAD-BASED, MULTI-ETHNIC, AND GENERALLY
REPRESENTATIVE, RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END ALL SUPPORT FOR
TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW ACCEPTED STANDARDS OF INTERNATIONAL
BEHAVIOR.

-- BY DEFINITION, ANY TRANSITION OR FUTURE GOVERNMENT
COULD NOT BE COMPOSED OF JUST ONE AFGHAN FACTION. TO BE
SPECIFIC, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE
(COMPOSED LARGELY OF TAJIKS AND UZBEKS) ALONE COULD OR
SHOULD RULE AFGHANISTAN GIVEN ITS LIMITED ETHNIC
COMPOSITION. THE NA WILL, OF COURSE, HAVE A ROLE IN ANY
FUTURE GOVERNMENT, AS SHOULD OTHER SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF
AFGHAN SOCIETY.

-- WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORS HAVE
LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN. WE
BELIEVE THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THOSE

INTERESTS INTO ACCOUNT. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WANT TO BE FACED
WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN WITH TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. IRAN
WANTS THE SHI'A PROTECTED AND NO DRUGS. PAKISTAN AND IRAN
WANT REFUGEES TO RETURN HOME. UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN,
AND TAJIKISTAN WANT PEACEFUL BORDERS.

-- WE WOULD NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT OTHER NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES ALSO HAVE LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN THE FUTURE
POLITICAL SETUP IN AFGHANISTAN. WE DO NOT SEE ANY
IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT AMONG THESE INTERESTS AS LONG AS
AFGHANS AND OUTSIDE INTERESTS ARE FLEXIBLE.

-- WE HAVE MADE THESE POINTS TO OUR AFGHAN CONTACTS.

-- YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED ON ALL
FRONTS. WE EXPECT TO BE IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH YOU ON
THIS TOPIC AND WELCOME YOUR VIEWS.

4. (C) BELOW ADDRESSEES SHOULD ADD THE FOLLOWING POINTS:

FOR SIX PLUS TWO MEMBERS:

-- YOUR COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER NEIGHBORS,
HAS LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN
THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. YOUR COOPERATION IS
VITAL TO THE EMERGENCE OF A FUTURE PEACEFUL, STABLE
AFGHANISTAN.

-- WE ARE CONSIDERING WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL THE SIX PLUS
TWO MIGHT MEET TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES.

FOR EMBASSY NEW DELHI:

-- INDIA HAS A LONG HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AS WELL AS
KEY INTERESTS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. INDIA,
LIKE PAKISTAN, SHOULD NOT BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE
AFGHANISTAN.

-- INDIA'S COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED. WE
ANTICIPATE A DIALOGUE WITH INDIA ON REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
OF THIS TOPIC AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FOR EMBASSY TOKYO:

-- VERY MUCH APPRECIATE YOUR STRONG INTEREST IN THE
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND SOCIAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN.

-- WE VALUE OUR BILATERAL EXCHANGES ON THIS ISSUE, BOTH IN
TOKYO AND IN WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS ON THE MARGINS OF
RECENT MEETINGS IN BERLIN AND GENEVA.

-- WE ALSO THINK YOUR SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AS IT GRAPPLES
WITH ITS ECONOMIC NEEDS IS VERY HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY AS
PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TAKING RISKS DOMESTICALLY BY
JOINING OUR INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM.

-- WE VIEW YOU AS AN INTEGRAL PARTNER AS WE FOCUS ON AN
ASSISTANCE AND POLITICAL/ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR A
FUTURE AFGHANISTAN.

FOR EMBASSY PARIS:

-- WE WERE DELIGHTED TO SEE THAT, IN YOUR EXCELLENT PLAN
FOR ASSISTING AFGHANISTAN, YOU ARE CONCENTRATING ON THE
SAME AREAS OUR OWN THINKING ENCOMPASSES. FRENCH
LEADERSHIP ON THHIS ISSUE WILL ASSURE THAT THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ADDRESSES THESE URGENT TASKS
EFFICIENTLY AND WELL. WE SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH ON
THE WAY FORWARD.

-- WE SHARE YOUR PARTICULAR CONCERNS REGARDING ERADICATION
OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION.

--WE BELIEVE FRANCE AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE EU HAVE AN
IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN PROVIDING A BETTER FUTURE FOR
THE AFGHAN PEOPLE AND WELCOME THE EU'S EXPERTISE IN
DEVISING A RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME.

5. (U) DUSHANBE MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.

POWELL

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