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What’s Next For COVID Vaccines In NZ? – Expert Q&A
As we head into winter illness season, the SMC asked experts for the latest on our COVID vaccines.
An updated vaccine targeting new COVID variants became available in January.
Dr Lisa Connor, head of the Connor laboratory and programme leader of the infection and vaccinology group at the Malaghan Institute of Medical Research, comments:
What’s the current advice on who should get boosted and when?
“For healthy individuals, an annual COVID-19 booster is recommended to help reduce the severity of illness, as the virus continues to circulate year-round with periodic surges.
“For those with weakened immune systems, a booster is recommended every six months to provide extra protection against severe disease. While COVID-19 vaccines may not completely prevent infection, they remain highly effective at reducing serious illness and hospitalisations.”
Is this in line with the evidence & what other countries are doing?
“These recommendations align with international guidelines, including those from the US, UK and Australia, where health authorities have also shifted towards annual boosters for the general population and more frequent doses for high-risk groups.”
Is COVID being treated as a seasonal illness, with a winter push for vaccination?
“The virus has yet to settle into a predictable seasonal pattern like influenza. While winter vaccination is encouraged (similar to flu shots), COVID-19 infections fluctuate throughout the year rather than peaking exclusively in colder months.
“Given these unpredictable waves, health officials recommend an annual booster to maintain immunity and reduce the risk of severe illness, particularly heading into high-risk periods.”
How up-to-date are the vaccines we have?
“The latest COVID-19 booster available in New Zealand is the Pfizer-BioNTech’s Comirnaty mRNA vaccine. This targets the Omicron JN.1 variant which is the most common strain currently circulating. This recently updated vaccine was introduced in New Zealand in January 2025, and is expected to offer good protection against severe disease.
“According to wastewater surveillance carried out by the ESR, 95% of detected COVID virus in New Zealand is Omicron JN.1, so this booster is well-matched to the dominant strain.”
What changes to vaccines might be coming in future?
“Looking ahead, combination vaccines that protect against both COVID-19 and influenza are in development and are currently in clinical trials. If these trials are successful, they could potentially be available as early as 2026.”
No conflicts of interest.
Professor Michael Baker, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, comments:
What’s the current advice on who should get boosted and when?
“Current advice on Covid-19 vaccines is outlined on the Te Whatu Ora / Health New Zealand website.
“Most people have already had their two initial Covid-19 immunisations and one additional booster dose. Consequently, the focus is now on getting regular boosters. They can be taken up to every six months for those 30 years of age and over. These additional doses are particularly recommended for those 65 years and over, those with serious long-term illnesses, and other higher-risk groups described on the Te Whatu Ora website.”
Is this in line with the evidence & what other countries are doing?
“The New Zealand vaccination policy is similar to Australia, except that they allow additional doses for adults down to the age of 18 years. NZ should follow suit and extend the age of eligibility for boosters down to 18 years also. This change is important as the vaccine not only protects against serious illness, it also markedly reduces the risk of Long Covid which is a health threat for people of all ages. The current restrictive NZ vaccine policy means that young people in the NZ workforce, such as healthcare workers and teachers, are missing out on this protection.”
How long are vaccines likely to be free for the general public?
“Maintaining high Covid-19 vaccine coverage protects individuals and populations from serious illness, death, and Long Covid. It also reduces hospitalisations and the strain on our healthcare system. Consequently, it is important to continue free vaccine supply. If NZ starts charging for vaccine, this will reduce access for low-income New Zealanders and increase health inequities.”
Are there any changes to eligibility you’d like to see?
“The main change in vaccine policy that I think is supported by evidence is to lower the age of eligibility for regular booster doses to 18 years, as is the policy in Australia.”
Is COVID being treated as a seasonal illness, with a winter push for vaccination?
“Covid-19 is not a seasonal illness in NZ. During the Omicron period, over the last three years, the majority (5 out of 7) waves have been in the summer half of the year with only two in the influenza season (May to October). Consequently, there is no current benefit in a winter push for Covid vaccination. However, there may be practical benefits in getting this vaccine during the same visit for the pre-winter influenza vaccine as both can be given at the same time (and indeed combined vaccines may be available in the future).”
How up-to-date are the vaccines we have?
“The current vaccine in use in NZ (Pfizer JN.1 monovalent vaccine) is a good match with the current circulating Omicron strains. Covid-19 rates are currently low in NZ with no current wave or dominant strains. That situation could change in the future if a new dominant subvariant emerges or we see an entirely new variant that replaces Omicron.”
What changes to vaccines might be coming in future?
“There is a large amount of research work underway to develop an inhaled vaccine which may provide better protection against infection and transmission of Covid-19.”
What new information have we learned about COVID vaccines in the last few years?
“Continuing scrutiny of the mRNA Covid vaccine used in New Zealand has shown that this vaccine is very safe. These vaccines are effective at reducing infection, serious illness, and death. A new finding is that they also reduce the risk of Long Covid. However, they are not highly effective at preventing transmission, need regular boosters, and need to be updated periodically to match the circulating strains of Covid-19 which change as the virus evolves. These vaccine features are very similar to what we see for influenza.
“The Public Health Communication Centre publishes regular Briefing articles to update the public and policy makers on Covid-19 science and policy. Here are relevant Briefings for recent months that discuss Covid-19 vaccination issues:
“Long Covid update – March 2025 – Further reminder about the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines for preventing Long Covid
“Covid at 5 years in NZ – Feb 2025 – Outlines measures to reduce the harms caused by Covid-19 infection, including regular vaccination
“High safety of Covid-19 vaccine and need for high-quality adverse event surveillance – Sept 2024 – based on NZ and global data
“Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness – Aug 2024 – Describes the continuing effectiveness of vaccine at preventing serious illness, death, and Long Covid.”
No conflicts of interest
Dr Joan Ingram, Prof. Nikki Turner & Dr Joshua Clark, Immunisation Advisory Centre, comment:
How up-to-date are the vaccines we have?
“The COVID-19 virus continues to circulate globally and to evolve rapidly with continuous changes to the spike protein.
“A WHO Technical Advisory Group monitors the evolution of COVID-19 variants and assesses how different vaccines respond to them. Their latest advice, in December 2024, was to retain the JN.1 variant vaccine. We wait for their April 2025 meeting to know if the vaccine should be updated again.
“By using variant-matched vaccines, as we do for influenza vaccines, we can maximise vaccine effectiveness. The JN.1 vaccine, which we started using in January this year, is still reasonably matched to the current variants circulating, particularly to reduce severe disease. When someone has the vaccine, they will make antibodies against the dominant circulating variants which are descended from JN.1 and help them fight the virus when infected. Data from the USA shows having a recent dose reduces COVID-19-associated emergency department visits and hospitalisations.”
Is COVID being treated as a seasonal illness, with a winter push for vaccination?
“We have had peaks of COVID-19 cases each winter and summer from early 2022, but this past summer cases did not rise so dramatically. The virus continues to circulate, however. Many of us now have increasing protection from a combination of previous vaccine doses and previous infections. Death rates have fallen with our growing immunity, but COVID-19 continues to remain a serious disease for the elderly and those with comorbidities and the post-COVID-19 prolonged symptoms condition – known as Long COVID – may still follow any COVID-19 infection, although it is more likely after severe COVID-19.”
What’s the current advice on who should get boosted and when?
“COVID-19 vaccines are less effective against mild disease or transmission, but remain important to help protect individuals at risk of severe COVID-19. Although protection against reinfection with Omicron variants wanes within months of additional doses (or COVID-19 infection), protection remains enhanced against severe disease for up to 6 months. Because of the waning antibody levels, vaccines are needed six-monthly for those at greatest risk. The important groups are those who are elderly (particularly those over 70), and those who are immunocompromised.
“A COVID-19 vaccine every six months in these groups is likely to reduce their risk of admission or death from COVID-19. Māori and Pacific Peoples over 50 years of age, residents of aged or disability care facilities, and anyone from 16 years of age at higher risk of severe disease (for example, those with chronic inflammatory conditions such as lupus; cancer in the past 5 years; diabetes requiring medication; chronic lung, heart, liver, kidney or neurological disease; severe obesity or severely underweight; and people with disability with complex health needs) are also likely to benefit from six-monthly boosters. All those aged over 30 years are eligible for repeat boosters, but healthy non-elderly individuals are less likely to be at risk of severe disease.”
Is this in line with the evidence & what other countries are doing?
“Other countries manage COVID-19 boosters in different ways. For example, Australia recommends boosters yearly to those aged 18 years and older who don’t have risk factors for severe disease, and more often for higher risk groups. The UK only recommends boosters to those aged 75 years and older who don’t have risk factors, along with younger people with risk factors.
“The international evidence is still emerging as to the best way to handle COVID-19 boosters for any country, and NZ will need to continue to monitor this evidence to inform further vaccination recommendations. Trials are ongoing for combined COVID-19 and influenza vaccines and hopefully they will not be too far off. We really need a vaccine which protects us not just from severe disease, but from infection to help reduce community spread, and there are trials of nasal-administered vaccines which may potentially achieve that.”
What changes to vaccines might be coming in future?
“COVID-19 vaccines have saved many lives and continue to be important for those at risk of severe disease. Many New Zealanders are confused about the COVID-19 vaccination schedule and whether they will benefit from further boosters. While COVID-19 tends to be milder in children, adults who are at risk are the same group at risk of severe flu, so having an updated COVID-19 vaccine alongside the seasonal influenza vaccine is a good idea.”
Conflicts of interest: None declared.
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