A Warm And Wet Start, But Winter Is Coming

MetService is forecasting a warm and wet start to the week for many as a complex area of low pressure affects the country. However, a change in regime is coming at the end of the week as the persistent mild northerlies give way to cold southerlies.

Rain or showers are forecast for much of Aotearoa New Zealand today as a band of rain moves eastwards across the country, followed by an unstable showery flow. Thunderstorms are also possible for the north and west of both Islands this afternoon and evening.

An Orange Warning for Heavy Rain is in force for the ranges of Westland through to 9pm tonight (Monday). MetService meteorologist Amy Rossiter said, “86mm of rain has already fallen in Franz Joseph from midday Sunday through to 9am Monday, with a further 30-50mm expected to fall today.”

After a prolonged period of rain for Tairāwhiti/ Gisborne, (from Friday 16th through to Sunday 25th) which saw over 585mm of rain recorded in the Raukumara Range, and 255mm in Gisborne, a north-easterly flow continues to bring further showers to the region. “Surface flooding and slips are still possible due to how saturated the region is, but rainfall amounts are expected to be well short of warning criteria so no further warnings or watches will be issued,” adds Rossiter.

Tomorrow, a low-pressure centre deepens to the east of NZ, which remains slow-moving for a couple days driving strong easterlies and rain with possibly heavy falls into the east from Wairarapa to Canterbury.

Late in the week, a series of active and fast-moving fronts approach the country from the Southern Ocean, which will bring a change to wintry conditions. Temperatures are forecast to drop as cold air spreads up the country, and there is the possibility of snow, especially for those higher elevations in the south. “While it is too far out to pinpoint the finer details of the forecast for next week it is looking like a cold and windy start to the school holidays.” Rossiter said.

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