Three Years Of MetService Red Warnings For New Zealand’s Most Severe Weather

MetService Red Warnings are reserved for New Zealand’s most extreme weather and since the National Weather Service introduced them three years ago (27 May 2019) there have been seven severe weather Red Warning events.

Six events have occurred in the last year (May 2021-May 2022) including the devasting Canterbury flooding at the end of May 2021 and the recent Gisborne and Wairoa flooding.

Damage to homes and properties, washed-out bridges, isolated communities, evacuated residents, toppled trees, and power outages are some of the impacts caused by these weather events which wreaked havoc in Fiordland, Westland, Canterbury, Buller, Taranaki, Gisborne and Wairoa. (See detailed list below.)

All but one of the seven MetService Red Warning events were for heavy rain and five resulted in local or regional states of emergency being declared.

MetService only issue Red Warnings when they expect widespread significant impacts, disruptions, and safety issues.

MetService Severe Weather Manager Elke Louw says, “We work closely with regional councils ahead of issuing the Red Warnings and during the events to understand local concerns. The more forewarning, we can provide, the more time communities have to prepare and stay safe.”

MetService meteorologists provide up to date advice as events unfold to local Emergency Management crews, Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency on roading impacts, lines companies on the impact of strong winds on powerlines, media outlets, and the public through the MetService website, app and social media.

Three years on, Red Warnings are helping to grab people’s attention.

Lisa Murray, Head of Weather Communications says, “We introduced the Red Warnings to make it easier for everyone to understand the level of severity of forecast weather. Now, people know - if it is red, it is serious!”

“Our warnings let people know when and where the severe weather is going to hit, and what impacts to expect. Our baseline message in these Red Warning events is to take immediate action to protect your whānau, and property and follow the advice of local authorities and emergency services.”

Gary Knowles, Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) says, “MetService Red Warnings certainly raise awareness of incoming extreme weather, and this helps Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups and NEMA with preparing for potential impacts and getting the message out that people need to take action to keep themselves and their whānau safe.”

MetService uses a three-tier colour-coded warning system. The use of colour-coded warnings linked to impacts is recommended by the World Meteorological Organisation, of which New Zealand is a member.

“As our climate changes the frequency and severity of weather events increases, the enhanced warning system is vital to get the information to everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand,” says Lisa Murray.

“We know from a scientific study into the Canterbury flooding a year ago that it was 10 – 15% more intense because of climate change. It is not surprising to see three Red Warning events related to the West Coast, because research tells us that we are more likely to see intense rainfall in this area as the climate changes further.”

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