MetService are forecasting settled conditions over the long weekend, but the weather takes a tumultuous turn in the
middle of next week.
Waitangi Weekend will be dry for most of New Zealand, although many places will see more cloud than we’ve been
accustomed to over the last few days. Southerly winds keep things on the cool side at first, but as the weekend wears on
the flow turns northerly and temperatures start to rise.
The initial southerly winds will bring a few showers to the east of the North Island on Saturday, and then the northerly
flow will bring some rain to Fiordland late on Monday. These winds are associated with the edges of a high pressure
parked over Aotearoa but in the Far North, at the high’s northernmost extent, winds will be coming from the east. This
means a fairly cloudy weekend in Waitangi with a small risk of a brief shower on Sunday and Monday.
On Tuesday cloud thickens for western areas, and some heavy rain sets up for the West Coast of the South Island.
“After all the settled weather we’ve had recently, this will be one to watch”, explains MetService meteorologist Tom
Adams. “There is a good feed of moisture from the tropics associated with the remains of ex-Tropical Cyclone Lucas. This
interacts with a trough moving in from the west, and we are likely to see a deep low pressure system develop. Wednesday
in particular could see widespread rain with some heavy falls, but if the high persists to the east or south the low
could hang around right until the end of the week. There is a lot of uncertainty in the models right now, so this is one
we will be watching closely.”
The bottom line is that the country – especially western parts - are set for some rain mid next week. Settled conditions
will return afterwards, although will be shorter lived than the long run of sunny days we are currently having. As we
get towards the second half of February, more low pressure systems from the Tasman are likely, bringing a mix of fine
days and rain – you can read more on this in our monthly outlook on http://bit.ly/MonthlyOutlook