1 July 2019
Winter weather is renowned for wind and rain, but also large blocking high pressures that bring prolonged settled
conditions to New Zealand. This week MetService is forecasting both, as an unusually strong high moves away to the east,
followed by a blast of wind and rain.
The start of the week still sees the high clinging on. Increasing cloud and northerly winds will mean less frosts, but
also the odd shower in the north and rain developing on the West Coast.
On Wednesday a front moves up the South Island, and an Orange Heavy Rain Warning has already been issued for the
Westland region for late Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Buller and western Nelson also have Heavy Rain Watches for
Wednesday. Rain and strong northerlies can also be expected for the North Island.
Then on Thursday high pressure returns to the South Island, but the front stalls over the upper North Island bringing
some heavy falls of rain there, especially for the eastern Bay of Plenty.
There is some disagreement between different weather models as to if the front moves away on Friday, leading to easing
showers and southerlies, or whether a deep low forms close to the East Coast.
MetService meteorologist Tom Adams explains: “This latter scenario would keep the rain for much of the eastern North
Island, especially the Gisborne region. On the plus side, this set-up would bring a good dump of snow for Mount Ruapehu
in time for the school holidays the following week, and some smaller amounts to the Canterbury club fields.”
The uncertainty around these scenarios will be resolved in the next day or two as we approach the event, so keep up to
date with forecasts. By Sunday all models have high pressure returning to the country bringing more settled weather.