11 February 2019
MetService forecasters are predicting a weak front to move northeast over the upper South Island tonight but it battles
against high pressure as it crosses the North Island on Tuesday and weakens further as high pressure over the Tasman sea
builds over much of New Zealand. The front provides little respite in the coming days for the hot, dry weather.
The general weather pattern over New Zealand out to Friday is expected to see warm to hot temperatures across much of
the country. Te Kuiti has an average maximum temperature in February of 24.5C but it can expect a high of 31C on Monday,
Thursday and Friday. Over central New Zealand, the Hutt Valley normally expects a daily high of 21.7 C in February, but
on Monday and Thursday the temperature is forecast to rise to 28C and to 29C on Wednesday. Finally, in the far south,
Invercargill normally expects a high of 18.6C this time of year, but today it is expected to be 27C and 28C on
Wednesday. Temperatures in Auckland and Christchurch will also be slightly higher than average this week.
“For those in the Nelson region, rising temperatures Tuesday morning will result in a moderate afternoon sea breeze from
the northeast,” comments MetService Meteorologist Andy Best, “The strongest winds so far during this fire event have
been from the northeast during the daytime but MetService are forecasting a change on Tuesday evening with wind coming
from the southwest and may gust 40 to 50 km/h at times overnight. Winds are expected to ease on Wednesday morning.”
A quick look towards the Tropics as there are number of tropical lows being closely watched by MetService meteorologists
for potential development over the next five days. Although one of the low-pressure centres moves south tonight, it is
not forecast to intensify as it passes well east of New Zealand in the next day or two.