An Unsettled Start to November

MetService News Release
2nd November 2018

MetService is forecasting another ‘spring-like’ month for November, with large week-to-week variations expected.

MetService meteorologist James Millward explains how it’s fairly usual for spring to show large swings in both rainfall and temperature.

“It’s too early to put the winter woollies away but there’ll be days for the togs too,” he confirms.

“Through October we experienced plenty of high pressure across Aotearoa for much of the month. This lead to mainly drier the average conditions, counteracted however by a couple of wet and windy events which dragged the rainfall totals back near normal. Temperatures saw a similar topsy turvy ride but overall, ended back at average.”

Millward says in November we should expect large week-to-week variation, adding up to what will most likely be a fairly average month.

“Week one looks very cold and wet but week two looks warm and dry. Nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.

“Spring really is a battle ground between a lot of the drivers of our weather, and this year is no different. We’re seeing the likelihood of El Nino conditions developing, a neutral Madden-Julian Oscillation (areas of enhanced convection in the tropics) and a settled Southern Ocean. No single factor is coming to the fore and taking charge at this point. What does that mean for us here in New Zealand? Well, a lot of variety.

“Pushing ahead into November we’re expecting cool southwesterlies to dominate early on. Following that, the Tasman should stabilise bringing drier conditions for North Island but moist northwesterlies for the lower South.

“Into the second half of the month, a settled Southern Ocean and occasional Tasman lows look set to bring us a real mixed bag. Pretty spring-like really,” he concludes.

The latest Rural Outlook can be found at www.metservice.com/rural/monthly-outlook.

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