Key Dairy Areas Forecast to Have a Drier Than Normal October

Key Dairy Areas in New Zealand Forecast to Have a Drier Than Normal October

Latest ENSO update notes that neutral conditions are persisting

Hamilton, New Zealand, 3 August 2018. The relatively benign seasonal forecast issued by ExtendWeather in August for the early part of the dairy season has largely been experienced. The three times a month update does however offer insights into occasionally rapidly changing seasonal forecasts for the country.

The latest forecast released this morning does show slightly to moderately drier conditions for some of the principle dairy regions of the country, namely the Waikato down through Taranaki and the Manawatu, including a large part of the Bay of Plenty and Southern Hawkes Bay. Across Cook Strait moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast for Tasman, Nelson and Marlborough and down the West Coast and for much of the alpine country of Canterbury and Otago and the western half of Southland.

The other key variable that can exacerbate drier than normal conditions at this time of year is temperature. Across almost all the North island temperatures on average for the entire month of October are forecast to be very close to normal to just slightly above normal. It is a different story across Cook Strait with large parts of North Canterbury and part of Tasman, Nelson and Marlborough as well as alpine areas of Canterbury forecast to be on average up to 2 degrees C above normal.

New Zealander’s have a keen interest in what is happening in Australia. The ExtendWeather forecast shows some improvement in rainfall for parts of New South Wales and Southern Queensland but rainfall is still forecast to be lower than normal for much of Victoria, South Australia and Northern Queensland.

Temperatures across much of the interior of New South Wales and all of Victoria and South Australia are forecast to be moderately above normal for October.

The ExtendWeather forecast is updated every ten days. The most frequently updated seasonal forecast in New Zealand and Australia. ExtendWeather uses an ensemble forecast and proprietary downscaling technology. The team also has a handy piece of software for viewing the forecasts that can allow users to zoom into either their own assets or farms and save sites for quick analysis with each forecast when released.

Seasonal forecasts are increasingly used for important decision making for not only dairying but also for contractors, for example November is looking cooler than normal and this can impact on maize emergence and early growth. Visit the ExtendWeather website to access the viewer and the regular seasonal updates.
See: Percentage change in precipitation for the Central North for October:

Temperature anomaly forecast for South Eastern Australia in October:

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