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SMC Heads-Up to 24 Nov: Extreme Weather, Science Funding
Issue 159 November 18-24
Special report on extreme weather
In the early hours of tomorrow (NZ time) the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release a draft "special report" expected to cite links between rising greenhouse gas emissions and increasing frequency of extreme weathers such as big storms, floods and droughts.
Though
delegates at the SREX conference in
Kampala, Uganda
were today still working through the
details of a summary for policymakers -- which has to be
agreed in full by the participating nations -- it is
expected to address links between human activities and the
frequency of extreme weather, particularly heatwaves,
droughts and changes in rainfall patterns.
The report is one of only two that the IPCC is publishing before its 2014 comprehensive assessment of the state of climate change science, and earlier leaked versions highlighted the potential for drought to intensify in the Mediterranean region, central Europe, southern parts of North America, northeast Brazil and southern Africa.
A leaked copy of the draft summary, details of which have been published by the BBC and French newsagency AFP, have indicated that though the human and financial toll of extreme weather events has risen, the cause has been mostly due to increased human settlement rather than worse weather. The Australian newspaper reported there was only "low confidence" that tropical cyclones had become more frequent, "limited to medium evidence available" to assess whether climatic factors have changed the frequency of floods, and "low confidence" on a global scale even on whether the frequency had risen or fallen.
According to the BBC, the draft report said while it was "likely" that anthropogenic influences were behind the changes in cold days and warm days, there was only "medium confidence" that they were behind changes in extreme rainfall events, and "low confidence" in attributing any changes in tropical cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity had done.The draft report said "uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability".
A senior United States scientist, New Zealander Dr Kevin Trenberth -- head of the climate analysis section at the USA National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the 2001 and 2007 IPCC scientific assessment of climate change -- told the SMC: "I have seen chapter 3 of the SREX report and I am worried that it seems wishy-washy, does not properly frame the questions, and is not up to date". But he noted that he was running a major conference in Rome and "not in a position to keep up with this at the moment".
An American climatologist -- Dr James Hansen, an adjunct professor at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University -- said this week in a paper (which has not been submitted to a peer-reviewed scientific journal) that summer mean temperatures, including data for 2011, had risen inexorably above the 1951-1980 average. Each year about a tenth of the world's land area now experienced an "extremely hot" June-July-August, something all but unheard of just 60 years ago, said Dr Hansen, who recently visited New Zealand.
"The big problem is that more warming is already in the pipeline without further increase of greenhouse gases and the gases are continuing to increase," he said. "The most important effects of the warming probably come via the effect of warming in exacerbating the extremes of the hydrologic cycle: more intense droughts at times and places where it is dry and more extreme precipitation and floods at other times". Other commentators have said his observations appear robust for global data but the recent trend in extremely hot USA summers appeared similar to those of the 1930s, and that such "noise" from natural weather variation was expected in local and regional data.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) global full-year mean temperatures reached a record in 2010 tied with 1998 and 2005, and the past decade was the warmest since measurements began in the nineteenth century. Earlier this year, WMO said that it was "very likely" that compared with pre-industrial times, human influence on climate had at least doubled the risk of a heatwave such as the 2003 one in Europe, blamed for 40,000-70,000 deaths.
Intellectual pursuit is crucial
The nation's most senior science adviser, Professor Sir Peter Gluckman has told the nation's scientists that science communication is not just a matter of telling people what the science is.
"There is the need to tell the public about what we do, because the public owns what we do -- they paid for it," Sir Peter said, after he was presented with the inaugural Callaghan Medal for outstanding contribution to science communication, particularly raising public awareness of the value of science to human progress.
"There is the need to explain the complexity of science so that the citizens of New Zealand can take their part in judging how science will affect their future, and what choices they should make, whether it's climate change, or advanced foods or whatever," he said. "The public are part of the decision-making process and we're not doing a good enough job in that regard".
"Most importantly, we must convince this country that intellectual pursuit is our most important pursuit, because it is from that we will get economic growth, we will get a better environment and we will get social development. All of us have role in science communication"
And the first woman scientist to take home New Zealand's most prestigious science medal, biochemist Professor Christine Winterbourn, urged science funders to continue supporting "blue skies" research, including fundamental work that may have no immediately-apparent application to industry.
The Rutherford Medal - with a $100,000 cheque - was this
week presented to Prof Winterbourn, from the University of
Otago, Christchurch, for her outstanding achievements and
discoveries in free radical biology.
Noting that
science was an exploration, Prof Winterbourn told guests at
the awards ceremony in Wellington that it was important for
funders of science to remember the importance of supporting
fundamental research. "This is not only because of the great
discoveries that we can make - and we have made in New
Zealand - but because this is also the ground for fostering
the curiosity and the enthusiasm of young scientists," she
said.
Full details of the scientists honoured can be seen here.
Video interviews with several winners can be viewed here.
Inaugural Science
Teller revs up
The
inaugural Science Teller festival in Dunedin is underway,
promoting a cast of international science communication
superstars.
Organised by the Centre for Science Communication at the University of Otago, the festival is celebration of storytelling in science, featuring presentations from a number of highly regarded science communicators.
The festival opened on Tuesday with renowned American storyteller Jay O'Callahan performing his one man show Forged in the Stars, a NASA-commissioned tale exploring the history of space exploration. From there the festival has been a non-stop showcase of science featuring some of the world's best storytellers, including physicist Lawrence Krauss, COSMOS editor Wilson da Silva and filmmaker Klaus Fitchenbeger .
If you are in Dunedin tomorrow (Saturday), don't miss the chance to see presentations by award winning Kiwi author Bill Manhire and science journalist Alison Ballance .
See the full Science Teller programme here
People outside Dunedin need not despair: a number of talks from the festival will also be posted online as part of the SCITED initiative from the Centre for Science Communication.
Science Teller festival runs from the 15-19th November with most of the presentations are open to the public ($5 entry fee).
Science challenges get $60m fillip
The Government has announced a new science fund directed towards "national science challenges" in a collation of 120 promises from 33 separate policy areas framed as an "economic development" plan.
Between four and eight scientific research projects will be funded from $60 million over four years, with funding proposed by the Minister of Science and Innovation in consultation with the relevant science community and the Prime Minister's chief science adviser, Sir Peter Gluckman.
Prime Minister John Key provided three examples of the types of questions that might be suitable for funding under the national science challenge:
* How could New Zealand intensify its primary industries in an environmentally sustainable way - increasing production while at the same time protecting the environment, particularly water quality?
* What cost-effective technologies could be developed for sustainable energy production through use of biomass (plant material or agricultural waste) or advanced geothermal technologies?
* How could New Zealand produce a new generation of high-value foods - for example food or food-derived products that have demonstrated health benefits, designed for the Asian market?
Quoted:
Research Honours Awards
- Professor Robert Poulin, of University of Otago, after
being told he had won the Hutton Medal for animal sciences
for his leading research in the field of parasitic diseases,
especially ecological parasitology.
"Who
would have thought that 25 years of studying creepy little
worms would lead to this?"
New from the SMC
Experts respond:
Teen drinking costs:
American researchers investigating the longterm impacts of
a lower legal drinking age in some US states say the
evidence points to higher risk of serious harm including
suicide and homicide, when the drinking age is lower.
Their study showed
that a higher risk of suicide and homicide persisted into
adulthood among women born after 1960 who came from states
that permitted under-21 drinking. Women had a 12
percent
higher risk of suicide and a 15 percent higher risk of
homicide if they grew up where drinking was permitted at
younger ages, making a new argument for keeping the legal
minimum drinking age at 21.
Reflections on science:
It's all about funding:
"NZ spends a lot of money on research, [but] it's
really bad at commercialising it," says Polybatics chief
executive Tracy Thompson of Palmerston North. He
says two "significant" deals are looming.
In
the news:
NZ's Rocket Lab named:
This week, Popular Science Magazine released it's
"Best of What's New for 2011" Awards, highlighting the top
100 innovative technologies in the world. Instant Eyes, a
hand-held rocket-launched Un-manned Aerial Vehicle (UAV),
developed by Rocket Lab and L2 Aerospace, received an award
in the "Security"
category as one of the "World's Most Innovative
Technologies."
GE prototypes useful in lab: Genetically-engineered (GE) prototyping is a tool available to researchers planning breeding programmes, Plant and Food Research executive David Hughes tells FreshFruitPortal.com.The fast prototyping answers questions about fruit that may one day be produced conventionally.
Scientific writing: The
two winning entries in the Royal
Society of New Zealand Manhire Prize for Creative Writing
were Dr Bridget Stocker from Wellington's Malaghan Institute
of Medical Research being awarded the fiction prize and Dr
Joanna Wojnar from Auckland University winning the
non-fiction category.
Their winning entries on the theme
of "Chemical World" will be published in the Listener.
Ocean drilling: A meeting of scientists in Oamaru
this week will provide valuable information on climate
change that will be used globally.Forty scientists from
around the world, including Korea, China, Britain, the
United State, Japan and Australia, as well as two New
Zealanders are this week reviewing results from the
Integrated Ocean Drilling Programme (IODP) expedition off
the coast of South Canterbury early last year.
Sciblogs highlights
Some of the highlights from this week's posts:
Surf's up - The Wave Watcher's Companion by Gavin Pretor-Pinney is this year's the winner of the UK Royal Society's Winton Prize for science books. It. beat a shortlist which included Guy Deutscher's Through the Language Glass and Alex Bellos's Alex's Adventures in Numberland.
You know you need a new car
when... - Marcus Wilson looks over his broken
fan belt with analytical eyes of a physicist.
Physics
Stop
Writing about environmental
history - Alison Campbell reflects on the need
to communicate our surroundings - and their
past
BioBlog
The Case of the Mysterious
Jellyfish - Wellingtons squishy sea creatures
have captured the attention of Aimee Whitcroft
misc.ience
Research
highlights
Please note: hyperlinks point, where possible, to the relevant abstract or paper.
Antibiotic-resistant bacteria in sewage:
Discharge of even wastewater treated by the
highest-quality treatment technology can result in
significant quantities of antibiotic-resistant bacteria,
often referred to as "superbacteria," in surface waters.
Standard
Glazed mountain: Immunisation conflict:
Simple fix for infant iron
levels:
effluent treatments probably release far
greater quantities of antibiotic-resistant genes used by
bacteria, but these are masked by background levels of
bacteria.
Environmental Science and Technology
Nature
Journal of Virology
pregnancies,
as iron deficiency and iron deficiency anemia are major
public health problems in young children around the world
and are associated with poor neurodevelopment.
British Medical Journal
Policy updates
Some of the highlights of this week's policy news:
Health report released - The Director-General of Health has published The Health and Independence report 2011 . The report examines public funding allocated to health and disability support services in New Zealand, workforce issues, service allocation and achievements.
Funding for youth
interventions - The Ministry of Health has
announces a $33 million funding
boost for forensic mental health services to
improve early intervention and treatment services for youth
offenders. The funding, spread over four years, will provide
mental health, alcohol and drug assessment services for the
4200 young offenders who appear in youth courts each year.
Upcoming sci-tech events
• The Commercial Exploitation of
Scientific Research- Professor Sir Michael Brady
- 21 November, Wellington.
• 2011 Surveying & Spatial Sciences
Conference -21 - 25 November,
Wellington.
• National Pest Control Agencies
(NPCA) AGM - 22 November, Wellington.
• Talking Head:
Professor Joe Schwarcz from McGill University, Canada - 24
November, Wellington
For these and more
upcoming events, and more details about them, visit the
SMC's Events Calendar.
ENDS
Science Media Centre NZ
Our aim is to promote accurate, evidence-based reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community.
The Science Media Centre is New Zealand's only trusted, independent source of information for the media on all issues related to science. Thousands of news stories providing context from and quoting New Zealand researchers have been published as a direct result of our work.
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