Moon Man Non-Event Lunch Planned
Members of the New Zealand Skeptics, geologists, earthquake engineers, MP Nick Smith and NewstalkZB morning host Sean
Plunket are to gather for a lunch on top of the Port Hills in Christchurch on March 20th, the time when so-called "Moon
Man" Ken Ring has predicted a large earthquake for the battered region. The get-together is aimed at quelling the
unfounded fears people have in attributing credibility to Ring´s predictive abilities.
"There may well be a tremor then - we´re getting multiple after- shocks every day after all - but it will have nothing
to do with the phase of the Moon, the position of Jupiter, dolphins beaming sonar signals to the Moon, the existence of
Indo/Egypto/European culture in NZ thousands of years ago, or any of the other truly odd ideas that Mr Ring has
espoused," says Skeptics media spokesperson Vicki Hyde.
Ring has gained a great deal of opportunistic publicity on the back of allegedly predicting the February 22nd
earthquake. The Skeptics note that, like psychics, tea-leaf readers, astrologers and others of that ilk, the predictions
have been very vague beforehand, and are given a veneer of accuracy only after the event.
The March 20 prediction has already undergone some morphing from an apparently definite magnitude 8 in
Canterbury/Marlborough to the chance of an "extreme event" sometime around March 19-21, to "it could be anywhere in NZ,
or it may not even happen at all". What´s the use of that, Hyde asks, comparing it to saying that it might be rainy
today or sunny or somewhere in between.
"At times like these, we think it is irresponsible to allow anyone to exploit the understandable anxieties of
Christchurch residents," says Hyde, herself at one stage an earthquake evacuee. "People should understand that these
predictions are just like the one last year claiming that giant bats would attack South America - and have just as much
value."
After last September´s earthquake Ring stated "I would still not consider that another massive earthquake is certain, in
fact I think it´s more likely not to be the case in Christchurch. I can only repeat that other well-known earthquakes in
NZ´s history have not, as a rule revisited the same site". He said Napier was an example of this. Not only was he wrong
about Christchurch, but also wrong about the Napier quake of February 3rd 1931, which was followed by a second 7.3 quake
on February 13th. Close analysis of the moon relationships alleged by Ring show a similar lack of any evidence
supporting them.
The Skeptics in the Pub group had been discussing a possible March 20 gathering, but Christchurch members have lost
their usual Twisted Hop watering hole as it is within the CBN cordon. The idea for the lunch came about during a
discussion with Hyde and Smith. The MP, who has a PhD in geo-technical engineering from Canterbury University, was once
given a Bravo Award from the Skeptics for speaking out against mediums exploiting the disappearance of Marlborough pair
Ben Smart and Olivia Hope.
"The NZ Skeptics do a real public service in exposing these pseudo- science claims that the timing of earthquakes can be
predicted. The last thing needed by the thousands of traumatised people in Canterbury, including elderly and children,
is junk science and made- up predictions of future major quakes," says Smith. "This lunch is about taking a stand for
robust science, including its limitations, and ensuring we make sound decisions for managing the risks of earthquakes."
Geologists and earthquake engineers are being invited as representatives of other groups incensed by Ring´s
pronouncements.
The group plans to have lunch, MC´d by Sean Plunket, at the Sign of the Kiwi, which from its Port Hills vantage point
overlooks both Lyttelton and the Canterbury Plains. It is also the closest café to the epicentre of the February 22nd
earthquake.
"It was the highest place we could find that was accessible, is a lovely heritage building that has come through both
quakes, and has great food. We get to support a local business while highlighting the problems of giving too much
credibility to pseudo-science. It´ll be a great event," says Hyde.
Janice Thornton, the café owner-operator, is pleased that the fear- mongering engendered by Ring is being addressed and
delighted that her hilltop café is the chosen venue.
"The Kiwi is still flying high," she says.
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