Royal Society All At Sea On climate Change

Oceans Eleven – Royal Society All At Sea In Statement On climate Change

The Royal Society of New Zealand is all at sea with its theories on climate change, according to Hon Barry Brill, chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition. Mr Brill, a former Minister of Science, said that a statement issued on behalf of the society by one of its vice- presidents, Professor Keith Hunter, of Otago, is beset with errors, with no less than eleven of these directly connected with the oceans:

1. “Extra carbon in the ocean and atmosphere matches the quantity from fossil fuels.” Wrong: Oceanic carbon has never been measured and cannot be estimated.

2. “Extra carbon in the ocean and atmosphere matches the quantity from fossil fuels.” Wrong: The Society hasn’t heard of the “missing carbon sink”, believed to be as much as three trillion tonnes.

3. “Greenhouse gases (GHGs) will trap outgoing solar radiation”. Wrong: Solar radiation doesn’t go out. It comes in.

4. “GHGs will trap ... radiation reflected off the earth’s surface”. Wrong: That goes straight back to space (the albedo effect). GHGs only affect infrared energy.

5. “Oceans absorb 85% of the radiative forcing of GHGs.” Wrong: This is physically impossible. CO2 radiates infrared at wavelengths of about 12 microns, while the limit for sea absorption is 3 microns.

6. “Measured oceanic heat content is rising.” Wrong: it’s falling. The international ARGO oceans monitoring programme has made accurate measurement possible since 2004.

7. “Changes in ocean heat agree quantitatively with forcing.” Wrong: Remember Kevin Trenberth’s email: “…we can’t account for the lack of warming, and it is a travesty that we can’t.” The theoretical energy budget has never balanced.

8. “Satellites show that the sea level has risen.” Wrong: Sea level rises are about the same as in 1992 when satellite measurement began. But the much more usual land-based measures show that sea level rise has slowed this century.

9. “Sea levels have risen as a result of thermal expansion.” Wrong: The IPCC AR4 estimated up to half the small rise was caused by ice melt.

10. “Sea levels have risen by the amount expected from AGW [anthropogenic global warming].” Wrong: There is no correlation between the steady 18mm sea level rise over the past 100 years and the increase in either GHG emissions or fossil fuel usage.

11.“Salinity levels are consistent with higher heat in the tropical ocean.” Wrong: They are much more consistent with the view that the earth has a natural thermostat system — which has kept it stable for over four billion years.

Mr Brill said: “Not one of their oceanic arguments holds water. It’s no surprise, therefore, that the society’s paper candidly admits that its arguments don’t prove the theory of abnormal global warming caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called ‘greenhouse’gases.. Rather, they prove that the Society has very little understanding of the scientific debate — and its stance on AGW is nothing more than pure politics.”

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