ACT, Te Pāti Māori, and the centre-right will be happy with the results of the final Taxpayers-Union Curia Poll for 2024.

The poll, conducted 1 to 3 December, has both National and Labour down 4.6 points from last month, National at 34.2% and Labour at 26.9%.

The Greens are down 1 point to 8.3%, while ACT are up 4.5 points to 13%. That puts ACT ahead of the Greens for the first time since February 2024.

New Zealand First is down 1.1 points to 5.4% while Te Pāti Māori is up 3 points to 5.5%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 2% (+0.7 points), TOP is on 1.1% (+0.2 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.2% (-0.2 points).

When participates were asked what the most important issue is that would influence how they would vote, Cost of Living topped the poll with 22.5% (down 0.3 points), followed by the Economy at 18.8% (+0.6 points) and Health at 11.8% (+2.2 points). 8.4% of respondents (+3.3 points) said Treaty issues were the most important, followed by Law and order on 5.3% (-1.8 points), the Environment (4.6%), Employment (3.9%), Poverty (3.5%), Education (3.1%), and Housing (2.3%).

Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Sam Warren, said:

"On these numbers, the centre right would command 68 seats in Parliament - a comfortable majority. The National Party and ACT would not require NZ First to form a government."

"Despite what would appear to be a difficult few months for the Government, and the National Party getting the lowest party vote result in our poll since July 2023, the Labour Party does not appear to have been able to capitalise on it. At 26.9%, Labour is on the identical result as it received at last year's election."

"Although it is getting much media attention, just 8.4% of voters listed the Treaty as their top voting issue. That would suggest that media attention does not necessarily correlate to importance in the mind of most voters."

More information, including the Preferred Prime Minister results, is available at: www.taxpayers.org.nz/final_poll_dec2024

Notes:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 1 and 3 December 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 01 Dec to Tuesday 03 Dec 2024. The median response was collected on Mon 02 Dec 2024.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel.

A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

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