A new poll suggests National’s honeymoon with voters has been short-lived.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll shows National slipping four points since the October 2023 election.

Labour has gained four and leader Chris Hipkins pulls ahead of National’s Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister, meaning the race for 2026 is very much alive.

Christopher Luxon’s party still has a lead on 34%, but it’s down from its 38% election win, a result that won’t soothe fears about his leadership style.

Its coalition partner ACT is on 8% (down a point) with no change for New Zealand First, on 6%.

In the left bloc, Labour has a lift from 26.9% at the election to 31%. Both the Greens (13%) and Te Pāti Māori (6%) are up one point each.

Assuming all seats are held, and using the Electoral Commission’s seat calculator, these results would deliver an overhang in Parliament with both Te Pāti Māori and National winning more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement.

Field work was completed last week, in the aftermath of a 45,000-strong hīkoi outside Parliament against a controversial bill seeking to reinterpret the Treaty of Waitangi, and data that showed the economy continues to soften as unemployment bites.

The poll shows:

National: 34%, down 4 percentage points since the election (43 seats)

Labour: 31%, up 4 (39 seats)

Greens: 13%, up 1 (16 seats)

ACT: 8%, down 1 (10 seats)

NZ First: 6%, no change (8 seats)

Te Pāti Māori: 4%, up 1 (6 seats)

Freshwater director and pollster Mike Turner – who has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn, Liz Truss and The Australian Financial Review - says the results will unnerve the Coalition.

“At a time of deep financial and social strife, it’s who voters perceive as best to manage key issues that counts, and the results are grim reading for Luxon and co,” he says.

“Traditionally there has been an advantage for incumbent governments, who have access to the levers of state. But in recent times incumbency has been more of a hot potato, with voters turfing out those who fail to capture their imagination with a positive future.”

The Post editor Tracy Watkins says The Post-Freshwater Strategy poll was among the most accurate in predicting the outcome of the 2023 election, so today’s poll would give National real cause for concern.

“It’s clear that due to factors including the cost of living and a prolonged and deep recession that National and Christopher Luxon have not enjoyed the sort of honeymoon that most newly elected governments can expect.”

The poll, carried out with support from Infrastructure NZ and released at today’s Future Proofing New Zealand: The 2050 Infrastructure Forum sponsored by The Post, also shows Hipkins (42%) leads as preferred Prime Minister against Luxon, but by just one point. Both leaders are down when compared to 2023.

The research also drilled down into voter intention and attitudes and in-depth analysis of the numbers will be published on The Post and Sunday Star-Times in coming days.

Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,150 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 26-27 November 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

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