• This report considers the domestic emissions reductions that could be achieved as part of the second nationally determined contribution (NDC2). The Government will set NDC2 by February 2025 at the latest.
• A nationally determined contribution (NDC) is Aotearoa New Zealand's agreed contribution towards the collective global effort on climate change, which the country signed up for under the Paris Agreement.
• The overall finding of this report is that domestic emissions reductions could make a substantial contribution to NDC2 as long as enough is done this decade to get the ball rolling.
• This is a one-off report, commissioned by the Minister of Climate Change under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act.

Domestic emissions reductions can make a substantial contribution to NDC2 as long as enough is done this decade to get the ball rolling

Minister of Climate Change Simon Watts today released the Commission’s report on the domestic emissions reductions that Aotearoa New Zealand could achieve as part of the country's second nationally determined contribution (NDC2).

This report shows that domestic emissions reductions can substantially contribute to NDC2 - as long as further action to reduce Aotearoa New Zealand’s domestic emissions starts before 2031. Such action would also position the country to deliver further emissions cuts beyond 2035, which could form part of future NDCs.

The Commission’s report, alongside other data and government projections, will help inform the Government’s decision in setting NDC2, which is due in February 2025 at the latest.

"The good news is our latest report shows that it’s possible, both economically and in practical terms, for Aotearoa New Zealand to substantially reduce domestic emissions. But only if there’s investment and further action in the next six years, for example to decarbonise energy, industry and transport," says Dr Rod Carr, Chair of the Climate Change Commission.

"It’s important to note this new report shows that substantial domestic emissions reductions are feasible, but the results are not explicit recommendations for NDC2. The Government also needs to consider the most recent data and other important factors before it sets the level of NDC2," says Dr Carr.

" Our recent emissions monitoring report showed that Aotearoa New Zealand is making progress but could still fall short of meeting the country’s future emissions budgets. We need to increase the momentum with rapid and achievable action to get the country on track."

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are how countries commit themselves to contributing to the global effort on climate change. Each NDC must be more ambitious than the previous one, so each country builds on the foundations it has already laid. The Terms of Reference for this report were agreed in August and the Commission delivered the report to the Minister on 24 October 2024.

Under the agreed Terms of Reference, the scope of the Commission’s report covers the levels of domestic emissions reduction that Aotearoa New Zealand could feasibly achieve as part of its NDC2. An NDC can also be met through supporting international action, for example by paying for emissions reduction overseas (‘offshore offsetting’). Any potential international component is outside the scope of this report.

"While this report focuses on reducing emissions here in Aotearoa New Zealand, investing in the actions identified in this report would also reduce the amount the country would need to pay for international action to meet NDC2, and future NDCs. There are also substantial co-benefits from reducing domestic emissions, such as improved health due to cleaner air from less fossil fuels being burned," says Dr Carr.

Explore this report:

• Download the full report [PDF - 891 KB]: https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/public/Advice-to-govt-docs/NDC2/Report-on-potential-domestic-contribution-to-NDC2.pdf
• Browse supporting technical documents: https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc2-report/#supporting-documents
• Read the terms of reference for this request: https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/advice-to-government-topic/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc2-report/terms-of-reference

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