The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll for October shows National down 4.1 points on September’s poll to 34.9%, and Labour up 3.6 points to 30.3%. This is the lowest result for National in 15 months and highest for Labour in 16 mounths.

The Greens are down 0.6 points to 10.4%, while ACT rises 0.9 points to 9.7%.

New Zealand First are up 0.8 points to 7.6%, while Te Pāti Māori are down 2.0 points to 3.0%.

The full poll results can be found here on the Taxpayers' Union's website here at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/oct2024_polling

For the minor parties, TOP are on 2.5% (up 1.4 points), whilst the combined total for other parties is 1.6%.

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll conducted in September 2024, available at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_sept2024

Based on these results, National are down four seats on the last poll to 44, while Labour gains five to 38 seats.

The Greens are down one seat to 13 while ACT is up one to 12 seats.

New Zealand First are up one seat to nine from the last poll, while Te Pāti Māori remains on six.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right has fallen two from the last poll to 65. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up four to 57.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of New Zealand First to form a government. This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held.

A summary of the results, including preferred Prime Minister scores, are available on our website here: https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/oct2024_polling

Major Voting Issues – Appearance in Top Three

For the first time, the Taxpayers’ Union is publicly releasing the results of the “Major Voting Issue – Top 3” – which suggests that voters are considering health an increasingly important issue.

36.5% of respondents named the Cost of Living as one of their top three issues (up 0.5 points from last month), followed by Health at 35.5% (up 4.2 points), the Economy more generally 33.7% (up 3.6 points), Law and Order 16.5%, Poverty 16.3%, and Housing 12.1%.

Get the full report – join the Taxpayer Caucus

As part of the same poll, favourability data for party leaders and other notable politicians is collected monthly. This month, results were obtained for Labour’s Deputy Leader, Carmel Sepuloni, and Megan Woods as well as Labour’s Leader, the Prime Minister, and the coalition parties’ leaders. All of these results are detailed in the full Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll report made available exclusively to members of the Taxpayer Caucus.

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