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Winston’s Direction Is Set By Arithmetic
We’ve now got the final results of the 2023 election – and the picture is much as expected. National has lost 2 seats - as expected, and not enough to create a problem with formation.
Te Pati Maori has gained 2 seats – a stunning victory – taking all the Maori Seats – a long time objective and establishing a significant - and possibly enduring Parliamentary power block for Maori interests in Parliament.
Greens also gained 1 seat. And is technically (but not practically) able to form a Govt. with National – at 63 seats this would be a near bare majority..
National+ACT could also form a government technically with TPM, but this seems very unlikely.
A classic left coalition anchored on Green and Labour can only form a govt with the support of both Te Pati Maori and NZF which - whilst technically possible - would probably require a complete breakdown in the NZF/ACT/NAT negotiations - which have been underway in a low key manner in Auckland over the past fortnight – and in which the National Leader still seems to have a high level of confidence.
Meanwhile =the absence of any apparent interest in formation of a govt on the left (to be fair because it would be very hard) also means the road is now open for Winston to seal a deal with David Seymour ACT Party Leader and Christopher Luxon National Party Leader.
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POSSIBLE VIABLE GOVT FORMATIONS
A National-ACT-NZF Govt would have 67 seats (most probable – a majority of 11)
A Labour-Green-TPM-NZF Govt would be the next most stable Govt with 65 seats (a majority of 7) .
Labour-Green +NZF (without TPM) is not viable with 57
As is Labour-Green+ TPM at 55
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As the Parliamentary overhang is now 3 with a Parliament o 123 - the magic number of seats needed to form a govt is 63.
Whie this is unlikely to happen, a National Green (absent ACT) Govt would technically make the magic number barely.
Labour meanwhile has only one path to forming a Govt.
Labour+Green+TPM+NZF = 65 seats and a majority of 7 (perhaps with one or two parties in supply and confidence). This is unlikely to be Winston’s preference.
By contrast National can form a Govt in three different configurations two of which can be regarded as wildcards.
National + ACT + NZF = 67 majority of 11 is the most probable outcome – possibly as early as next week – but likely at least a bit longer in the gestation.
National + Green = Majority of 63 is a bare majority as indicated above.
National + ACT +TPM = 64 a majority of three - which is on the threshold of viability. But perhaps a wildcard path for Luxon to take if he is struggling to get a deal with Winston Peters.
But the general view is that TPM will not be interested in such discussions – even though TPM’s first leader Tariana Turia did support a National Government.
The result is a win for MMP delivering a complex mix of political constituencies that has the potential to create an interesting Parliament and exchange of ideas. Hopefully one that can bring an and to the period of public malaise and cynicism about politics which is the reason for this result being what it is.
ELCTORATE CHANGES FROM ELECTION NIGHT
The results also saw four electorate seats flipping – however these only have an effect on who is elected not the actual balance of power.
- Rachel Boyack (LAB) Nelson (29 majority)
- Phil Twyford (LAB) Te Atatu (131 majority)
- Takutai Tarsh Kemp (TPM) Tamaki Makaurau (4 majority)
- Mariameno Kapa-Kingi Te Tai Tokerau (517 majority)
In conclusion this election has always been Luxon’s to lose, and on the current trajectory he seems to be well placed to form a govt with a stable working majority of 11 with NZF.
Alastair Thompson
Scoop Publisher
Alastair Thompson is the co-founder of Scoop. He is of Scottish and Irish extraction and from Wellington, New Zealand. Alastair has 24 years experience in the media, at the Dominion, National Business Review, North & South magazine, Straight Furrow newspaper and online since 1997. He is the winner of several journalism awards for business and investigative work.
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