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National/ACT Could Form Government Comfortably - Thanks Largely To NZ First Slipping Below The 5 Percent Threshold
National increases 0.1 points on last month to 35.0% while Labour drops 0.6 points to 26.5%. ACT is up 1.3 points to 14.3% while the Greens are up 0.7 points to 12.7%.
The smaller parties are NZ First on 3.9% (-1.9 points), the Maori Party on 2.9% (+0.4 points), TOP on 2.7% (+1.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.8% (+0.2 points), Vision NZ on 0.5% (-0.6 points), and Outdoors and Freedom on 0.2%. (-0.3 points).
National and Labour are both up 1 seat on last month to 45 and 35 seats respectively. ACT is up 2 seats to 19 while the Greens pick up 2 seats for a total of 17. The Maori Party is up 1 seat on last month to 4. NZ First would win no seats in Parliament (-7 seats).
Had NZ First hit the five percent threshold, the Centre-Right would still be able to form a government, but only just (61 seats).
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is up 3 on last month and would allow them to form a Government. The combined seats for the Centre-Left bloc of 56 is up 4 on last month.
More detailed results, including polling on which party is best at dealing with particular issues and favourability ratings of different politicians are available on our website.
NOTES TO EDITORS:
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.
The full report is available exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 31 August to Wednesday 06 September 2023. The median response was collected on Monday 04 September 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.
The Taxpayers' Union operates a 24-hour media line for comment on taxpayer issues. Representatives are available on (04) 282 0302.
High-resolution images and logos are available on request or online at http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/resources
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