National/Act NZ On 47.5% Are Set For A Majority Of Seats At This Year’s New Zealand Election

Tuesday, 1 August 2023, 11:30 am
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for July 2023 shows a potential right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition has a clear lead on 47.5%, up 2.5% points since June, and now well ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 35%, down 5% points.

Support for National has increased for the first time this year in July, up 3.5% points to 33.5%, while support for potential coalition partners Act NZ was down 1% point to 14%.

The rise in support for National means the two parties are set to capture a slim majority of seats in the Parliament if this level of support is repeated at this year’s election set for October.

There wasn’t good news for the governing Labour-Greens alliance with support dipping for both parties in July. Support for the Labour Party was down 4.5% points to 26% - the lowest level of support for Labour so far this year, while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 0.5% points to 9% – the lowest support for the party for a year since August 2022.

Maori Party and New Zealand First both set to win seats in next Parliament

The results for July show further increases in support for minor parties outside the ‘big four’, up 2.5% points to 17.5% in total.

Support for the Maori Party is down slightly by 1% point to 6% while support for New Zealand First has increased by 2% points to 5% - it’s highest level of support since January. At these levels of support both the Maori Party and New Zealand First are set to win seats in the next Parliament.

A further 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1.5% points from a month ago, including 4% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 1.5% (down 0.5% points) who support other parties.

National/Act NZ set for a slim majority with 61 seats

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 61 seats, well ahead of the 45 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition.

The projected results show a further 14 seats split between the Maori Party (8 seats) and New Zealand First (6 seats).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 955 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, up 1% point, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunges to a record low of 68.5 in July

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged by 15.5pts to a record low of only 68.5 in July. A record high majority of 60.5% (up 6.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to under a third, only 29% (down 9% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 1.8pts to 83.7 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 75.2 on July 17-23, 2023.
 

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Men favour National/Act NZ while women are evenly split between left and right

On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 56.5% almost double Labour/Greens on 28.5%. This high support among men is the basis of the clear lead National/ Act NZ have overall. In contrast, support among women is evenly split between the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 40.5% and the potential National/Act NZ coalition, also on 40.5%.

A large majority of 59.5% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 27.5%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

There is a slightly closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with a majority of 53% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to 29.5% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

Women aged 50+ favour a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 48%, now just ahead of the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 43.5%. However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 37.5%, just ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 33%. Nearly a third of younger women, 29.5%, support other parties not including any of the ‘big four’.

Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 21% more than double their support amongst women at only 8.5%.

Support for the Greens is higher amongst younger women (15%) and men (10%) than amongst their older counterparts. Only 7% of women aged 50+ and 4.5% of men aged 50+ support the Greens.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 8% of women including 14% support from women aged 18-49 and 2.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 3.5% of men including 4% of men aged 18-49 and 3.5% of men aged 50+.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for younger men at only 61 in July

Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged by 15.5pts to 68.5 in July.

Among women overall now a majority of 57.5% (up 2% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 30.5% (down 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 73 (down 9.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down 0.5pts to 74 while it plunged 19pts to 72.5 for women aged 50+.

A rising majority of men, 64% (up 11% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 27.5% (down 10.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of a record low 63.5 (down 21.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was down 34pts to 61 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 6pts to only 66.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the momentum is with the opposition with only two months to go before the New Zealand election with a potential National-Act NZ coalition establishing its biggest lead so far this year over the Labour-Greens of 12.5% points:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National-Act NZ coalition pulling ahead and now at 47.5% (up 2.5% points) in July and 12.5% points ahead of a potential Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens at 35% (down 5% points).

“This is the largest lead for the potential National-Act NZ coalition so far this year and the lowest level of combined support for the governing Labour-Greens since they were elected to Government in late 2017 nearly six years ago.

“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election National/Act NZ would hold a slim majority of 61 seats and Labour/Greens would hold only 45 seats meaning a change of government is on the cards later this year.

“These results would also sideline other parties including the Maori Party on 6% support (and set to win a projected eight seats) and a resurgent New Zealand First on 5% support and set to win as many as six seats. This is the first Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll since January 2023 that New Zealand First has gained enough support to be on the threshold of being represented in the next Parliament.

“The gender split continues with men of all ages heavily favouring a potential National-Act NZ coalition on 56.5% compared to only 28.5% for Labour-Greens while women are evenly split between the two sides of politics on 40.5% each.

“Women aged 50+ favour National-Act NZ on 48% compared to 43.5% for Labour-Greens while the support is reversed for younger women aged 18-49 who are the only major demographic still favouring Labour-Greens on 37.5% compared to National-Act NZ on 33%.

“The key indicators do not favour the Labour-led Government’s re-election prospects and the news in mid-June that New Zealand has officially entered into a recession appears to have knocked the wind out of the Labour’s chances of winning the election. The New Zealand economy shrank by 0.1% in the March quarter 2023 following a contraction of 0.7% in the prior December quarter 2022 – its first recession since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.

“The news of a recession has sent the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunging 15.5pts to a record low of only 68.5. Now a rising majority of 60.5% (up 6.5% points) of New Zealanders say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ and only 29% (down 9% points) say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.

“In addition to low Government Confidence, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell 1.8pts to 83.7 in July. All the signs are that the shrinking economy is starting to impact on support for the governing Labour-Greens alliance and with just over two months to go until the election the chances of a change in government are rising fast.”

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