In just over five weeks as Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has breathed new life into a previously flagging government. His government looks more purposeful, more grounded in the realities facing New Zealanders today, and more realistic.

Whereas his predecessor clung to her dreams – famously telling television interviewer Jack Tame last year that she would never shy away from aspiration – Hipkins understands that aspirations count for little if they cannot be achieved. Hence his bonfire of various difficult or unpopular Labour policies on taking office, with the hint of more to come. He knows that even to be able to think about aspirations, his party needs to secure power at the coming election in October.

He has made a good start so far, with his media profile being boosted by two unwelcome and unexpected damaging cyclones. Through this, he has established his brand as Prime Minister, more quickly than he might have anticipated. As a result, Labour is at least back in the ring for this year’s electoral contest. Tellingly, there has been little evidence so far of nostalgia for the former Prime Minister.

Parallels are already being drawn between Labour’s dramatic poll recovery and subsequent election landslide in 2020 in the wake of the arrival of Covid19, and the current situation. There have been suggestions that Hipkins’ response to the cyclones could generate a similar wave of support for Labour in the lead-up to this year’s election. These are over-enthusiastic reactions to what is happening at present.

The parallels between 2020 and now are limited. In 2020, the government won because the sense was that the risk of Covid19 applied to all of us, and that the government’s response, and Jacinda Ardern’s overt compassion, kept the entire nation safe from the pandemic that was then sweeping virtually unchecked across the world. Indeed, “Jacinda kept us safe” became the mantra of many in the months before that election.

This time, the situation is not so universal. While the colossal devastation of large parts of the east and north of the North Island from the cyclones cannot be minimised, the rest of the country has not been directly affected. There is no sense of immediate crisis and threat enveloping the entire country, as there was with the arrival of the pandemic. Nor is there anything that “Chris has kept us safe” from, as there was with Covid19. While the Prime Minister will win support for his handling to date of the cyclone response, it will not be anything like the deep, emotional, lasting bond of gratitude there was with Ardern.

Bluntly, managing the initial response to the cyclone was the easy bit, which Hipkins has done well. He showed clarity of purpose and understanding of the magnitude of the situation, which got people on side. But having done that successfully, he now faces the far more difficult challenge of retaining that support while the recovery gets underway.

The tolerance of those whose lives have been torn asunder will quickly dissipate if their situations do not start to be rectified soon. Inevitably, calls will have to be made about priorities, and just as inevitably that means there will be winners and losers in the terms of how the recovery proceeds and its impacts on particular localities.

It is not like Covid19 where the risk was constant across all communities, and where it was possible to apply a whole-of-country approach to keeping the pandemic at bay. Situations differ from region to region now, meaning the response will, of necessity, be uneven. It will be simply impossible to apply the “one size fits all” style that worked so well in the “podium of truth” days.

When the going gets tough in the weeks ahead, Hipkins will not be able to rely on the appeal to the “greater good” that Ardern could during the pandemic. Unlike her, he will be expected to answer the hard questions, and will be pinned down by the media and political opponents when he does not. Already, he has shown a tendency to make minor mistakes under pressure, a point that will not have escaped his opponents’ notice.

While the Prime Minister deserves praise for the way he has handled his job in the first few weeks, his long-term fate will almost certainly be determined by what happens over the next few weeks before the Easter break. During that time, those who have lost houses and businesses will be seeking at least rudimentary assurances about their futures. Local authorities will be wanting to know how the recovery in their area is to proceed, and will expect all their vital infrastructure and connectivity services to have been restored. Insurance companies will be expected to have begun the compensation process.

If the prevailing sense in affected communities at that point is that tangible, albeit slow, progress is being made towards getting back to normal, the Prime Minister may live to fight another day. However, if the sense of despondency and desperation so many now understandably feel has not diminished, or has been replaced by new anxieties and uncertainties, and that mood starts to permeate the country, the Prime Minister and his government will be in trouble.

In short, Hipkins’ future is now inextricably linked to how the recovery from the cyclones goes. We are too far advanced in the electoral cycle and the impact of the cyclones has been too great to allow the government the time and space to develop and implement attractive, new policies, in other areas much dearer to Labour’s heart and constituency. Even his early commitment to focus on the cost-of-living crisis now risks becoming secondary to recovery from the cyclones’ impacts.

Whereas Ardern was able to control the spread of Covid19 through border closures and lockdowns, Hipkins has no such capacity to control the impact of natural events. As winter approaches, the risk of recession draws closer and the cost-of-living continues rising, he may well be left just having to hope for the best.

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