The latest Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll puts the Centre-Right bloc on its highest combined seat total since our poll began on 64 seats (up 2 from last month). The Centre-Left bloc drops four seats to a combined total of 52 seats.

On decided voting intention, Labour falls two points from last month to 33% – its equal lowest level in our poll – while National is up one point to 39%, which is its equal highest level. ACT and the Greens are steady compared to last month on 10% and 8%, respectively. The smaller parties are Te Pāti Māori on 3.5% and New Zealand First on 2.9%.

On seats, National is up two to 51 while Labour is down four to 42. ACT and the Greens remain unchanged from last month on 13 and 10 seats, respectively. Te Pāti Māori is up two seats to 4.

Jacinda Ardern’s net favourability has dropped five points compared to last month from +8% to +3%. This is a new low for the Prime Minister in our poll. Christopher Luxon is now almost level with the prime minister with an increase in his net favourability of five points from -3% to +2%. Although when it comes to undecided voters, the Prime Minister maintains a strong lead on net favourability on +1% compared with Christopher Luxon on -29%.

This month, we also asked how people viewed Reserve Bank Governor, Adrian Orr, and Finance Minister, Grant Robertson. Voters seem to blame them both equally for the current economic situation as they have very low net favourability ratings of -14% each.

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

"After National's strong victory in the Hamilton West by-election at the weekend, this poll will bring some more Christmas cheer to the National/ACT bloc who have begun to open up a reasonable lead over the Labour/Greens bloc as we head into election year. The Leader of the Opposition, Christopher Luxon, has also narrowed the gap in his personal ratings against Jacinda Ardern.

"But it is far too early to write off Labour's chances next year. Among undecided voters, the Prime Minister's net favourability rating is far higher than Christopher Luxon's and she remains a formidable campaigner. If Labour can bring itself to drop some of its deeply unpopular reforms and use next year's reshuffle as an opportunity to get a more disciplined cabinet, it could narrow the gap."

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