Trend analysis over the period of 1 January 2021 to 1 August 2022 indicates a potential correlation between increase in victims of crime and the Government expansion of controls and management.

Recent Government interventions both politically and through legislation focus on supporting convicted criminals while showing an absence of similar interventions on behalf of victims.

This discrepancy may be the result of a symbiotic relationship between increasing victim numbers in communities and the Government intent to intervene and manage those communities.

During the 18-month period of study, Government leaders focused legislation in such a manner that potentially caused increases in the total number of victims of crime and violence. Moreover, this increase appears to have been used to validate unrelated social and economic interventions.

Analysis indicates that over the study period a correlation manifested between Government rhetoric and the potential increase in crime statistics, including:

1. Substantial effort and time was expended on legislation related to convicted criminal, and their support;

2. Efforts were made to provide early release of convicted criminals, potentially putting communities back at risk at earlier dates;

3. Political rhetoric focused upon the families of convicted criminals and their needs, while offering no similar rhetoric on behalf families of victims.

Trend Analysis Network identified the steadily increasing victim rates may be used to validate new Government social and economic policies. This trend exists even with the increasing victimisation among women, poor and minority groups that are purported to be a focus for Government support.

Moreover, it newly introduced policies ignore trends from overseas that have shown youth crime with specific monetary targets may often be the result of organised crime syndicates using these youth.

Cursory analysis of the recent spate of youth crime, targeting specific shops with specific products, provide some potential links between increasing youth crime, victimisation and the advancement of organised crime in New Zealand.

The study period also shows a strong trend toward substantive increases in the total numbers of victims of crime, if the Government policy and methodology continue on the current course.

With regards to violent crime rates, trend analysis also indicates further rises in victimisation will result in an escalation in the total costs associated with social services and health care for victims. Concurrently, Police resources and criminal justice resources will continue to see degradation, as criminals are caught re-offending shortly after being convicted and released.

The ongoing early release of convicted offenders also may correlate with the Government social and economic interventions, which appear intentionally not tailored for victims.

Furthermore, youth crime combined with early release prison programmes appear to undermine the stated Government goals for improving communities and reducing costs associated with incarceration, as victim healthcare and social support costs exceed these at a faster rate.

Overall, the economic impact of increasing victim rates in New Zealand appear, based on the study period, to substantively exceed any intended cost savings from Government early release and youth programmes.

Trend Analysis Network is a think tank based in New Zealand created to identify and publish analytical results of future trends in politics, society, and economics.

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